Saturday, April 30, 2011

Newmarket 2000 Guineas day !!!

Some top quality racing action over the weekend at Newmarket with first two classics of the season.On Saturday we have the colts classic the 2000 Guineas and  Sunday see's filly's classic the 1000 Guineas.


Hot favourite Frankel looks very difficult to beat in 2000 Guineas, though at around 4-7 makes very limited appeal.Most of the bookmakers have now opened  betting without Frankel and this is the market that I'm  interested in .


2000 GUINEAS GROUP ONE BETTING  W/O FRANKEL 3.10 NEWMARKET
RODERIC O CONNOR  £100 EACH-WAY - 1PT EACH -WAY 
@ 9-2 LADBROKES 1/4 ODDS 1-2-3 .


VERDICT: Roderic O 'Connor ,Pathfork & Castmento look the three to concentrate on here all three are group one winners last season. RODERIC O' CONNOR  second to Frankel in the Dewhurst looks the stronger form and with the Aidan O Brien stable looking more forward this season and Ryan Moore also looking positive jockey booking .9-2 looks the value bet in this market.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Staking strategy !!!

Interesting article on staking strategy the way forward by Peter Sackville.To my knowledge most serious gamblers use a point based system or like myself level stakes.After reading this article its got me thinking which is the best staking strategy?? 


There are many reasons why only 2% of people betting on horse racing tomorrow will actually make a profit. Only 2% are blessed with real information and most others are second guessing the outcome. There is one common reason however why even accomplished bettors can lose over the period of one betting year however, and it can be to do with something as simple as staking!


People from all walks of life use various means, methods and systems to bet on horse racing. Many have good days, more have bad days and that actually is how it can go for even the most hardened professional on occasions.

The one single thing that almost every professional gambler will have in place and be using religiously is a controlled, planned and business like staking plan.

Unfortunately so many of the consistent losing punters betting on horse racing tomorrow, next week or next year have one thing in common. Many just do not spend enough time or effort learning one of the most crucial aspects of betting - controlling their finances!



Strike rates matter, especially if most of your winners come from the low to mid odds category. In fact if is fair to say strike rates always matter. You have to be picking horses with prices that actually win more often than the price! Which is one of the hardest things to do.


A Great Staking Plan Can Sky Rocket Your Betting Bank and Help to Protect it!

If you are using a traditional level stakes betting plan, then you had better hope long term that you are seriously good at choosing your selections or you are privileged to inside information. The fact is that betting one point here and one point there gets you somewhere slowly if you pick winners.



But what if you started using a cumulative staking plan that could increase your profits made by 100's of %? And help protect you bank during a 'winter' of losses!


There can only be one

The staking plan that you must always use is the 5% Cumulative Sliding Stake Plan. It is very straight forward to adopt and anyone unable to work out the maths really should not be betting in the first place!

You simply always, without fail stake 5% of your betting bank on a selection. Either 5 to win or 2.5% each way. There is no room here to show quite how effective it can be, but this plan helps to protect you when you lose as you reduce your next stake accordingly.

On the other hand with a run of quick winners you can treble your bank within weeks, as the amplification of the increased stakes starts to take effect.You do not have to bet 5% if you want more security you could choose 3 for example. The golden rule is that you have to stick with this rigidly, at all times, during all bets. Five however is very easy to work out, as only half of ten a four year should be able to do the maths

To make more money long term when betting on horse racing tomorrow ,start playing the game like a pro and instigate the only staking plan that you will ever need.If you are good at picking winners but have yet to make it pay ,practice this on a paper account and see how you get on.
















Disappointing Day Disappointing Month !!!

Wednesday was once again another disappointing day with Libranno only finishing fourth in 6 furlong listed contest at Ascot .


No excuses for Libranno had every chance after trying to make all the running ,though only beaten 1.25 lenghs could only manage forth place behind 14-1 outsider Perfect Tribute.


April has just been one them months not great deal has gone right and this looks like being the worse month since last July by quite some way .Long term profits are what count so one bad month is not a  disaster,hopefully we can turn things around in May .


On to Thursdays racing we have two flat cards at Brighton & Bath both cards look very low on quality with very few runners ,though hardly a surprise on rock hard ground.No suitable betting opportunities on Thursday. 

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Wednesdays best bets!!

Interesting days racing with Four flat cards on Wednesday at Ascot,Pontefract,Newcastle & Kempton .


Ascot stage high quality meeting which features the  Group 3 Sagaro stakes over 2 miles and two decent looking listed contest.Going concentrate on the 6 furlong listed stakes at Ascot 4.15 


6F LISTED STAKES CLASS 1 ASCOT 4.15 
LIBRANNO: Decent 2 year old last season for Richard Hannon winning three times including two group 2 races at Newmarket & Goodwood ,ran fair second on seasonal reappearance behind Native Khan in craven stakes over 1 mile(looked non stayer).Will be suited by the return to 6 furlongs and the drop in class .


VERDICT : Margot Did looks the main danger receiving 12lb from Libranno ,ran some decent races last season including finishing second twice here at Ascot in group 3 Albany stakes & Princess Margret stakes ,though was slightly disappointing on her last two starts including getting
beat when short priced favourite in listed race at Salisbury.


LIBRANNO has to concede plenty weight in this listed contest ,though looks the class act here after winning two group 2 races over 6 furlongs last season. 11-4 looks very fair price.


LIBRANNO 4.15 ASCOT 
£100 EACH-WAY - 1PT EACH-WAY 
@ 11-4 BET365 BEST PRICE GUARANTEE 



Sunday, April 24, 2011

Weekly results / round up !!

Sundays bet on Always The Lady was very disappointing finishing well beaten forth behind the Henry Cecil trained Arizona Jewel after being well  supported in market 7-2 into 9-4 ,had no real excuses in the race itself with perfect position in second place turning for home ,though never picked up most disappointing effort.


April has been disappointing month and to be honest I have struggled to find good quality betting opportunities with only four bets so far this month .The selections have not really been up to the normal standard, though not disaster with losses - £464 / 4.64 ,the selections have just not performed well enough this month


Its not all doom and gloom with still small profit on the year ,though will need to show some improvement over upcoming weeks.


THE RESULTS : 




ON THE WEEK :
1  BET ) 0 WINNERS ) LOSS - £200 / 2.00 PTS)




OVERALL AFTER WEEK 16 :
29 BETS ) 7 WINNERS ) 6 SECONDS ) 10 THIRDS )
PROFIT + £932 / 9.32 PTS




RETURN ON INVESTMENT IN 2011
STAKED £5800 / 58 PTS )RETURN £6732 / 67.32 PTS )ROI +16.14 % 



Sundays best bets!!

Two flat cards on Easter Sunday at Sandown & Musselburgh ,going concentrate on 1 mile 2 furlongs maiden stakes at Sandown 4.25


1 MILE 2F FILLIES MAIDEN STAKES CLASS 5 SANDOWN 4.25
ALWAYS THE LADY :Promising debut in decent looking 1 mile fillies maiden at Goodwood last September finishing 1.5 lengh second behind the Luca Cumani trained Poplin ,that looks decent form with the third horse that day the John Gosden trained Umseyat winning easily next time.Looks open to plenty of improvement over this longer trip and Oaks entry 


VERDICT : Interesting fillies maiden with most of the top stables represented ,the Michael Stoute trained Rien Ne Vas Plus looks possible danger after finishing promising 6TH of 18 in good 7 furlong maiden at Newmarket and looks open to plenty improvement over this longer trip being half sister to Derby winner North Light and Oaks entry.Quite a few well bred newcomers in the race ,though they will have to well above average to win this first time of asking.


The Clive Cox trained ALWAYS THE LADY second at Goodwood looks solid form and should improve over this longer trip 7-2 looks fair value.




ALWAYS THE LADY 4.25 SANDOWN 
£100 EACH-WAY @ 7-2 PADDY POWER.HILLS.CORALS
BEST PRICE GUARANTEE