Friday, October 14, 2016

British Champions Day Preview

Not been the best runs for the blog recently ,with only one winner from 10 bets ,with both August & September losing months .

Saying that the blog is still showing nice (£2221 profit on the year ) ( 20 winners from 60 bets ) (33% STRIKE RATE ) (with 40.45 % ROI ) 

On Saturday we have excellent Card at Ascot for British Champions day .Going preview the card with my recommended bets .

Race One on the card is the Long Distance Cup at 1.25  over 2 miles .10 runners declared for this group two contest .The three main contenders are Forgotten Rules , Order Of St George & Simple Verse .

FORGOTTEN RULES : Useful stayer on his day , winning 3 out 8 ,including winning this race back in 2014 , Made satisfactory reappearance last month ,finishing 2ND in 2 mile listed race at Curragh .Each-way claims,though has plenty to find with Order Of St George on last years Irish St Leger.Best form on soft ground .

ORDER OF ST GEORGE : High class 4-Y-0 stayer ,winning 7 out 14 , including winning Ascot Gold Cup at Royal Ascot in June .Also finished excellent 3RD in Prix De L ' Arc Triomphe last time ,behind stablemate Found .Will be suited returning to this longer trip .Seems to handle any ground.

SIMPLE VERSE : Useful 4-Y-0 Filly , winning 6 out 12 ,including winning five times in 2015 ,also winning the St Leger . Had looked disappointing in three starts this season ,though bounced back to form last time ,winning the group two Park Hill stakes .Should be suited by this longer trip . Best form on good ground.

VERDICT : Order Of St George, is clearly the one to beat on form and official ratings ,though odds around 4-5 look very short ,having already been turned over at 1/7 in Irish St Leger.

At the prices SIMPLE VERSE looks solid each-way play ,she looked back to her best last time at Doncaster, when winning the Park Hill stakes .Also looks open to more improvement over this longer trip .Odds around 11-2 look very fair value .


Race two on the card, is the Champions Sprint over 6 furlongs .10 runners declared for cracking group one contest . The three main contenders are Twilight Son, Shalaa & Quiet Reflection .

TWILIGHT SON : 4-Y-0 colt ,winning 6 out 9 ,including winning the group one Diamond Jubilee stakes at Royal Ascot in June .Very disappointing last time in July Cup at Newmarket , though looked unsuited by very fast ground . Needs to bounce back after poor run ,though did finish excellent 2ND in this race last year .Best form on G/S ground .

SHALAA :  3-Y-0 colt , winning his last six starts ,including winning two group 1 races last season .Returned after injury, to win group three contest at Ascot last time, on soft ground.Trainer John Gosden reported the colt only 80% fit that day ,will need show more improvement , though looks very interesting contender .Best form on good or G/F ground .

QUIET REFLECTION : 3-Y-0 Filly ,winning 7 out 9 .Been in great form this season , winning four times ,including winning the group one Sprint Cup at Haydock last time.Also won over C&D in group one Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.Should go well ,any rain will suit .

VERDICT : TWILIGHT SON will need to bounce back after poor run in July cup, though had previously looked very useful ,winning both the group one Sprint Cup & Diamond Jubilee Stakes.Also finished excellent 2ND in this race last year .Odds around 7-1 look good each-way value .

Quiet Reflection has done nothing wrong this season ,and looks obvious danger ,after winning the group one sprint cup last time at Haydock ,though odds around 3-1 look short enough in very hot contest . 


Race three, the group one fillies & mares over 1M 4F .14 runners declared for competitive looking contest . The three main contenders are Journey , Zhukova & Seventh Heaven .

JOURNEY : 4-Y-0 Filly ,winning 5 out 12 .Showed improved form since stepping up to 1M 4F winning 3 out 4 (1121 ). Been in decent form this season ,winning in group three & listed company .Also finished excellent 2ND in this race last year , behind Simple Verse . Solid each-way claims .Best form on good ground .

ZHUKOVA : 4-Y-0 Filly , winning 5 out 7 .Showed improved form this season winning 3 out 3 ,including winning two group 3 races .Showed career best effort last time ,when winning the Enterprise Stakes at Leopardstown ,beating Epsom Derby runner up US Army Ranger .Looks open to more improvement .Best form on good or softer .

SEVENTH HEAVEN : 3-Y-0 Filly ,winning 4 out 7 .Showed massive improvement this season since stepping up to 1M 4F.Looked very impressive when winning the Yorkshire Oaks last time ,beating Arc winner Found in good style .Looks sure go well ,receiving 7LB of her main rivals.Best form on good ground .

VERDICT : Dual group one winner SEVENTH HEAVEN stands out on form ,having won the Yorkshire Oaks in great style .That form looks outstanding ,with the 2ND Found going on to win the ARC next time .Odds around 2-1 look solid value .

Of the others. Journey looks the main danger ,having finished excellent 2ND in this race last year .Looks sure run her race and looks solid each-way option .


 Race 4 on the card is the group one Queen Elizabeth stakes over 1 mile .13 runners declared for cracking contest for 1 mile championship .The two standout contenders are Ribchester & Minding .

RIBCHESTER : 3-Y-0 Colt , winning 3 out 8 .Hasn't stopped improving this year ,since ,finishing third in 2000 guineas at Newmarket .Won high quality group one contest at Deauville last time ,beating the useful French colt Vadamos .That form has been boosted ,with Vadamos winning the group one Prix Du Moulin next time.Obvious claims with conditions to suit .Best form on G/S or Soft ground ,though handles good ground .

MINDING : 3-Y-0 Filly ,winning 7 out 11 ,including six group one races ,which also includes the 1000 guineas and the Epsom Oaks .Finished creditable 3RD in Irish Champions stakes at Leopardstown last time.Solid claims,though this drop back in trip doesn't look ideal .Best form on G/S ground ,though seems handle any ground .

VERDICT : RIBCHESTER looks very solid ,having produced career best effort last time in France .Looks to have ideal conditions here ,1 mile on easy ground . Odds around 11-4 look decent value .

Minding looks obvious danger ,going for her seventh group one success ,though there has to be question mark dropping back to 1 mile ,for first time since getting beat in Irish 1000 guineas .


Race 5 on the card, is the British Champion Stakes over 10 furlongs.11 runners declared for the feature race on the Ascot Card .The three main contenders are Fascinating Rock , Found & Almanzor .

FASCINATING ROCK : 5-Y-0 entire,winning 8 out 15 , including winning this race last year .Been lightly raced this season, though did win the group one Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh in May ,beating Found by 2.5 lenghs .Has missed a few engagements recently ,though looks to be saved for this.Any rain will help .Best form on G/S or soft .

FOUND : 4-Y-0 Filly ,winning 6 out 19 ,also finished second 10 times.Been in excellent form this season ,including winning Prix De L 'Arc De Triomphe at Chantilly last time .Also finished good 2ND in this race last year .Should go well ,looks closely matched with Fascinating Rock & Almanzor .Best form on good ground .

ALMANZOR : 3-Y-0 French colt ,winning 7 out 9 ,including winning the French Derby & Irish Champion Stakes .Showed top class form last time ,winning the Irish Champion stakes in good style .Missed the Prix De L ' Arc De Triomphe for this race.Obvious claims ,best form on G/S ground .

 VERDICT : Almanzor looks the one to beat ,having won the Irish Champion stakes in good style , though on 2LB worse terms ,doesn't have much in hand with Found.Odds around 13/8 look short enough,for horse that will need luck in running ,coming from well off the pace .

Last years winner FASCINATING ROCK should go well .Looks to have been saved for the race.Showed top class form when winning the group one Tattersalls Gold Cup, beating Found comfortably back in May .Will be fresher than most ,having only had the three starts this season .Odds around 8-1 look solid E/W value .



£25.00 EACH-WAY @ 11-2 PADDY POWER
(THIRD SP 6-1 PROFIT £5.00 )
£30.00 EACH-WAY @ 7-1 BET365
(UNPLACED SP 5-1 LOSS £60.00 ) 

£80.00 WIN @ 15-8 BETVICTOR 
(UNPLACED SP 5-4F LOSS £80.00 )  

£100.00 WIN @ 11-4 BETFRED
(SECOND SP 7-2 LOSS £100.00 )

(STAKED £290) (RETURN £55) ( LOSS £235 )

Saturday, October 08, 2016

2.40 Curragh 6F Waterford Testimonial Listed Stakes (Sun 9th Oct )

On Sunday we have good looking card in Ireland at the Curragh,featuring three decent looking listed races .Going concentrate on the 6 furlong Waterford Testimonial listed Stakes at 2.40 

14 runners declared, for competitive looking sprint listed race at the Curragh.On ground described as good/yielding .The three main contenders are Flight Risk , G Force & Fort Del Oro .

FLIGHT RISK : Consistent sort , though not easy to win with .Winning 2 out 28 , though has finished second 8 times . Finished good 2ND over C&D in G3 Renaissance Stakes on heavy ground two weeks ago . Should be thereabouts , though more likely to placed than win ,Best form on soft or heavy .

G FORCE : Useful sort back in 2014 winning three times,including winning G1 sprint cup at Haydock .Not won since ,though returned to form last time ,finishing creditable 4TH in Ayr Gold Cup ,off mark 102 .Not the force of old , though more than capable in listed company.Best form on Good ground .

FORT DEL ORA : Likeable 4-Y-0 filly ,winning 4 out 11,including winning this race last year , Been in decent form this season ,winning two listed races at Naas . Slightly disappointing last time,when finishing 4TH at Curragh in G3 Renaissance stakes, though looked unsuited by heavy ground .Should go well returning to listed company .Best form on Good ground .

VERDICT :  Last years winner FORT DEL ORA can bounce back to form on this better ground , looked unsuited by heavy ground last time at the Curragh.Has an excellent record in listed company,winning 3 out 4 (1112) also goes well at Curragh, winning twice over C&D .Odds around 11-2 look solid each-way value.

(UNPLACED SP 7-2 LOSS £100.00 )

Friday, September 30, 2016

2.30 Ascot 1M 4F Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3 ) Sat Oct 1st

On Saturday we have some top quality racing from Ascot , Newmarket & Redcar ,featuring seven class one races .Going concentrate on the group 3 Cumberland Lodge stakes at 2.30 .

9 runners declared for the G3 Cumberland Lodge stakes at Ascot .On ground described as good ,though showers are forecast.The three main contenders are Arab Spring , Kings Fete & Western Hymn .

ARAB SPRING : Won 6 out 11 ,including winning two group 3 races . Returned to form last time ,winning the G3 September stakes on poly track at Kempton.Has shown some solid form in this grade ,over last two seasons .Also has excellent strike rate over this 12F trip (11411) .Solid claims ,acts on soft or G/F .

KINGS FETE :Won 4 out 10 .Been in excellent form recently,winning last two starts in G3 company ,including winning the Geoffrey Freer stakes last time at Newbury .Obvious claims ,though this looks stronger G3 contest ,best form on good or G/F .

WESTERN HYMN : Won 6 out 17 , including winning four group races over 1M 2F .Hasn't looked quite as good this season ,though has finished 2ND three times ,including finishing close 2ND in Brigadier Gerard at Sandown ,behind Time Test.The return to this longer trip ,not certain to suit .Best form on good/soft .

VERDICT : On official ratings Western Hymn is 4LB clear ,and will be suited returning to group three company ,though has always looked better horse over 10 furlongs .Should be thereabouts ,though is passed over .

ARAB SPRING looks solid, and ticks all the boxes .Having won 4 out 5 over 1M 4F and 2 out 2 over the trip in group 3 company .Also Looked back to his best last time ,when winning the September stakes at Kempton l in good style..Odds around 10/3 look very fair value .

(SECOND SP 7-2 LOSS £80.00 ) 

Friday, September 16, 2016

3.25 Newbury 5F World Trophy Stakes (Group three ) Sat 17th Sep

Its been quiet spell recently for the blog ,with no bets for two weeks ,though there has been no real suitable betting opportunities in the class one races .

 On Saturday we have interesting card from Newbury with three class one races .Going concentrate on the group three World trophy stakes at 3.25 

8 runners go to post ,for the 5 furlong World Trophy Stakes at Newbury .After 74mm rain over last 24 hours ,the ground is described as soft.The three main contenders are Boom The Groom , Cotai Glory & Ridge Ranger.

BOOM THE GROOM :Won 3 out 22 on turf .Been in excellent form recently ,winning last two starts in competitive class 2 handicaps at Goodwood & York,including winning off mark 102 at York .Has poor record in class one races 0 out 7 .Best form on good or faster . 

COTAI GLORY : Won 3 out 18 ,including winning in G3 & Listed company.Shown some useful form this season without winning ,including finishing excellent 2ND in G1 King Stand stakes at Royal Ascot .Not shown much on recent starts ,though did finish good 4TH in G1 Nunthorpe at York .Inconsistent sort ,though can't be ruled out .Best form on good or faster .

RIDGE RANGER : Won 6 out 19 .Showed progressive form this season, including winning 6F listed race at Nottingham & G3 Summer Stakes at York.Also Lost nothing in defeat ,when trying concede 9LB to Mehronissa in listed race at Pontefract last time .Best form on good or good/soft .

VERDICT : RIDGE RANGER has looked very progressive mare this season ,including winning in group 3 company at York .The return to 5 furlongs,won't be problem ,having finished close second in this race year .Odds around 10-3 look solid value .

£90.00 WIN @ 10-3 SKYBET*      
(THIRD SP 13-8F LOSS £90.00 )

Friday, September 02, 2016

3.00 Haydock 32Red Mile (Group 3 ) Sat 3rd Sep

August ended up ,bit of disappointing month,with 1 winner from 7 bets ,for £210 loss on the month.

Most of the bets didn't run that badly ( 1 second & 3 thirds),though just not enough winners on the month unfortunately .

However overall the blog is still showing £2591 profit in 2016. 20 winners from 56 bets (35.71 % strike rate ) (ROI + 50.60 % ) Hopefully we can get back on track in September .

Moving on to Saturday we have five stakes races ,with the highlight being the group one sprint cup at Haydock , though for the blogs best bet, we are going concentrate on one main supporting races, the group three 32 Red Mile at 3.00 .

 10 runners declared for the 32red Mile at Haydock ,on ground described as good (heavy showers forecast).The three main contenders are Convey , Custom Cut & Mitchum Swagger .

CONVEY : 4-Y-0 colt ,winning 2 out 11 ,including winning listed race at Pontefract in July .Also finished close 2ND in G3 Supreme stakes at Goodwood last week behind Opal Tiara .Fair claims on form ,though has poor win record in group races 0 out 6 .Best form good or G/F

CUSTOM CUT : 7-Y-0 gelding ,winning 12 out 52 ,including winning 6 times in group company . Not won this season ,though finished creditable 4TH in G2 Summer Mile at Ascot in July .Also finished fair 3RD in G3 Strensall Stakes at York last time .Should go well , best form at mile on good or softer .

MITCHUM SWAGGER : 4-Y-0 Gelding ,winning 2 out 7 ,including winning handicap over C&D last season .Also finished good third of 27 in Royal Hunt Cup ,at Ascot in June off mark 108 .Up in class ,though looks open to improvement after just 7 starts.Best form at mile on soft surface .

VERDICT : This doesn't look the strongest group three contest on paper ,though still looks  competitive race on official ratings ,with only 6LB separating 9 of the runners .Heavy showers are also forecast on Saturday morning ,so ground conditions may be on softer side of good.

At the prices CUSTOM CUT looks solid each-way value here.There was nothing wrong with his 1.5 lengh third behind Scottish last time at York ,in very  fast time (1.39 fast ).The only confirmed front runner in the race, should get uncontested lead, and should take plenty catching from decent draw in stall 3 .Odds around 6-1 looks fair value .

Mitchum Swagger looks the main danger, especially if the rain arrives,goes particularly well here at Haydock ,including winning handicap over C&D on easy ground ,though will still need to show more improvement to land this G3 contest .


(UNPLACED SP 10-3F LOSS £100.00)