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Friday, September 16, 2016

3.25 Newbury 5F World Trophy Stakes (Group three ) Sat 17th Sep

Its been quiet spell recently for the blog ,with no bets for two weeks ,though there has been no real suitable betting opportunities in the class one races .

 On Saturday we have interesting card from Newbury with three class one races .Going concentrate on the group three World trophy stakes at 3.25 

8 runners go to post ,for the 5 furlong World Trophy Stakes at Newbury .After 74mm rain over last 24 hours ,the ground is described as soft.The three main contenders are Boom The Groom , Cotai Glory & Ridge Ranger.

BOOM THE GROOM :Won 3 out 22 on turf .Been in excellent form recently ,winning last two starts in competitive class 2 handicaps at Goodwood & York,including winning off mark 102 at York .Has poor record in class one races 0 out 7 .Best form on good or faster . 

COTAI GLORY : Won 3 out 18 ,including winning in G3 & Listed company.Shown some useful form this season without winning ,including finishing excellent 2ND in G1 King Stand stakes at Royal Ascot .Not shown much on recent starts ,though did finish good 4TH in G1 Nunthorpe at York .Inconsistent sort ,though can't be ruled out .Best form on good or faster .

RIDGE RANGER : Won 6 out 19 .Showed progressive form this season, including winning 6F listed race at Nottingham & G3 Summer Stakes at York.Also Lost nothing in defeat ,when trying concede 9LB to Mehronissa in listed race at Pontefract last time .Best form on good or good/soft .

VERDICT : RIDGE RANGER has looked very progressive mare this season ,including winning in group 3 company at York .The return to 5 furlongs,won't be problem ,having finished close second in this race year .Odds around 10-3 look solid value .

RIDGE RANGER 3.25 NEWBURY 
£90.00 WIN @ 10-3 SKYBET*      
(THIRD SP 13-8F LOSS £90.00 )

Friday, September 02, 2016

3.00 Haydock 32Red Mile (Group 3 ) Sat 3rd Sep

August ended up ,bit of disappointing month,with 1 winner from 7 bets ,for £210 loss on the month.

Most of the bets didn't run that badly ( 1 second & 3 thirds),though just not enough winners on the month unfortunately .

However overall the blog is still showing £2591 profit in 2016. 20 winners from 56 bets (35.71 % strike rate ) (ROI + 50.60 % ) Hopefully we can get back on track in September .

Moving on to Saturday we have five stakes races ,with the highlight being the group one sprint cup at Haydock , though for the blogs best bet, we are going concentrate on one main supporting races, the group three 32 Red Mile at 3.00 .

 10 runners declared for the 32red Mile at Haydock ,on ground described as good (heavy showers forecast).The three main contenders are Convey , Custom Cut & Mitchum Swagger .

CONVEY : 4-Y-0 colt ,winning 2 out 11 ,including winning listed race at Pontefract in July .Also finished close 2ND in G3 Supreme stakes at Goodwood last week behind Opal Tiara .Fair claims on form ,though has poor win record in group races 0 out 6 .Best form good or G/F

CUSTOM CUT : 7-Y-0 gelding ,winning 12 out 52 ,including winning 6 times in group company . Not won this season ,though finished creditable 4TH in G2 Summer Mile at Ascot in July .Also finished fair 3RD in G3 Strensall Stakes at York last time .Should go well , best form at mile on good or softer .

MITCHUM SWAGGER : 4-Y-0 Gelding ,winning 2 out 7 ,including winning handicap over C&D last season .Also finished good third of 27 in Royal Hunt Cup ,at Ascot in June off mark 108 .Up in class ,though looks open to improvement after just 7 starts.Best form at mile on soft surface .

VERDICT : This doesn't look the strongest group three contest on paper ,though still looks  competitive race on official ratings ,with only 6LB separating 9 of the runners .Heavy showers are also forecast on Saturday morning ,so ground conditions may be on softer side of good.

At the prices CUSTOM CUT looks solid each-way value here.There was nothing wrong with his 1.5 lengh third behind Scottish last time at York ,in very  fast time (1.39 fast ).The only confirmed front runner in the race, should get uncontested lead, and should take plenty catching from decent draw in stall 3 .Odds around 6-1 looks fair value .

Mitchum Swagger looks the main danger, especially if the rain arrives,goes particularly well here at Haydock ,including winning handicap over C&D on easy ground ,though will still need to show more improvement to land this G3 contest .

CUSTOM CUT 3.00 HAYDOCK 

£50.00 EACH-WAY @ 6-1 BETVICTOR OR PADDY POWER *
(UNPLACED SP 10-3F LOSS £100.00)

Friday, August 26, 2016

3.10 Five Furlong Beverley Bullet (Listed Stakes ) Sat 27th Aug

Some interesting racing on Saturday ,with seven class one races, up and down the country . Going concentrate on the 5F Beverley Bullet listed stakes .

10 runners declared for Beverley Bullet Sprint stakes on ground described as Good/firm .The three main contenders are Line Of Reason , Maarek & Muthmir .

LINE OF REASON : Decent 6-Y-0 Gelding , winning 8 out 45 ,including winning conditions race over C&D in June at Beverley .Finished fair 4TH of  20 in competitive handicap at York last time .Also finished good 2ND in this race last year .Should be thereabouts ,each-way claims 

MAAREK : Been useful sprinter over the years ,winning 13 out 59 ,including winning this race last year .Has struggled this season ,though did finish creditable 4TH in G2 Greenlands Stakes at Curragh in May .Looks on the down grade at the age nine , though can't be ruled out having won this race last year . 

MUTHMIR : High class 6-Y-0 Gelding ,winning 5 out 19 ,including winning two G2 races last season . Not been as good this season ,though did finish good 3RD in City Walls Stakes at York last month .Also finished fair sixth of 17 in G2 King George Stakes at Goodwood last time . Should go well , dropping back in class.

VERDICT : MUTHMIR looks the one to beat returning to listed company . Had some useful form last season in group company, though hasn't looked quite as good this season .Looks more than capable of winning in this grade . Odds around 3-1 look solid value ,in not the strongest looking listed contest .

MUTHMIR 3.10 BEVERLEY 
£80.00 WIN @ 3-1 SKYBET*
(THIRD SP 2-1F LOSS £80.00)

Friday, August 19, 2016

2.15 York 1M 200YDS Strensall Stakes G3 (Sat 20th Aug )

Another very busy Saturday ,with total nine meetings in UK & Ireland,including seven stakes races . Going concentrate on the 9F group 3 Strensall stakes at York 2.15 .

10 runners declared for quality looking G3 three contest over 9 furlongs at York ,on ground described as good .The three main contenders are Custom Cut , Scottish & Diploma .

CUSTOM CUT : Decent 7-Y-0 Gelding ,winning 12 out 51 ,including winning two G2 races last season .Also won this race back in 2014 .Not looked quite as good this season ,though did go close in G3 Diomed stakes at Epsom in June .Will be suited by any rain .

SCOTTISH : Consistent 4-Y-0 Gelding ,winning 3 out 10 ,including winning two listed races .Finished creditable 2ND in Rose Of Lancashire stakes last time ,behind Royal Artillery .Should go well ,though is 0 out 4 in group company .

DIPLOMA : Improving 3-Y-0 filly ,winning 3 out 6 ,including bolting up in 10F Lyric listed stakes at York last time ,that form has been boosted with the 2ND Fireglow winning listed race next time .Up in class ,though looks an improving filly from top connections .

VERDICT : DIPLOMA looks solid here ,after winning decent listed race last time here at York .Looks open to plenty improvement for inform Sir Michael Stoute stable .The drop back in trip shouldn't be problem ,having won over 7 furlongs . Receiving plenty weight of her main rivals .Odds around 4-1 good fair value .

DIPLOMA 2.15 YORK 
£50.00 EACH-WAY @ 4-1 BET365
(UNPLACED SP 11-4 LOSS £100.00)

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

6.50 Killarney 1M Vincent O' Brien Ruby Stakes (Listed Race ) Wed 17th Aug

On Wednesday we see the start of York's big four day Ebor meeting ,though for the blogs best bet on Wednesday we are going to Ireland, for decent looking 1 mile listed race at Killarney's evening card .

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11 runners declared for the Vincent O 'Brien Ruby Listed Stakes at 6.50 ,on ground described as good/firm .The three main contenders are Assume , Air Vice Marshal & General Macarthur .

ASSUME : Consistent 4-Y-0 Filly ,winning 1 out 5 ,including winning maiden over C&D at Killarney on Debut last season .Been in good form recently,finishing excellent 2ND over C&D in Cairn Rouge listed stakes, finishing close 2ND behind the useful Creggs Pipes.Also finished fair third last time in 9F listed race at Gowran Park . Should go well, with conditions to suit . 

AIR VICE MARSHAL : Decent 3-Y-0 colt , winning 1 out 5 .Showed some useful form last season, finishing good second in G2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket ,also finished creditable 4TH in 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in April .Bit disappointing last time in Irish 2000 guineas ,though will be suited by this drop in class .

GENERAL MACARTHUR : Inconsistent sort ,though more than capable on his day .Winning 2 out 9 , including winning 1 mile conditions race at Navan in June ,also finished fair 2ND in 1 mile conditions at Naas last month.No show in G3 Desmond Stakes at Leopardstown last time,though this looks an easier race .

VERDICT : Air Vice Marshal is 9LB clear on official ratings ,and looks the one to beat on his fourth in 2000 Guineas at Newmarket , this looks far easier race ,though will need to bounce back after poor run last time.Odds around 6-4, look short enough for horse that has only won in maiden company .

At the prices ASSUME looks the each-way value , having put in two solid efforts in this grade recently .Goes well here at Killarney ,having won  maiden over C&D on debut, and only been beaten neck in listed company last month .Odds around 9-2 look decent each-way value . 

ASSUME  6.50 KILLARNEY
£50.00 EACH-WAY @ 9-2 BETVICTOR*
(UNPLACED SP 7-4F LOSS £100.00)