Wednesday, February 21, 2018

2K to 10k Betting Challenge (Bet No 4 ) Wed 21st Feb

The 2k to 10k betting challenge continues on Wednesday evening ,with class two 11f handicap from Kempton . 

February has been very slow month,with very few suitable betting opportunities on All weather ,though just have to stay patient . The bankroll now stands at £1811 stakes drop to £72.00. 

10 runners declared for the 1M 3F (0-105) handicap on poly track at 7.45pm .Not the strongest looking class two handicap ,though still looks interesting contest.The three main contenders are Al Hamandy , Kelly's Dino & Cosmepolitan .

AL HAMANDY : 4-Y-0 Bay Gelding,winning 3 out 10 on All Weather.Consistent sort been in fair form this winter.Winning 12f class three handicap at Kempton in November.Also finished second in handicaps at Lingfield & Wolverhampton in December.Goes well here at Kempton (12512 ) though will need career best to land this class 2 contest,off mark 95 .

KELLY'S DINO : 5-Y-0 Bay Gelding,winning 2 out 3 on All Weather .Lightly raced sort ,though been good form this winter ,winning handicaps at Southwell & Wolverhampton in January .Also finished fair third in 9.5f class 4 handicap at Wolverhampton last time .Takes step up in class ,though looks open to further improvement over this longer trip.Each-way claims .

COSMEPOLITAN : 5-Y-0 Bay Gelding ,winning 2 out 18 on turf .Lightly raced on All Weather ,though finished close second in class 2 handicap at Wolverhampton in 2016 ,off mark 92.Also finished good second in 12f class 3 handicap at Lingfield last time .Up 2lb in weights ,though still fairly treated off mark 89 .Solid claims .

VERDICT : COSMEPOLITAN should go well for Alan King, after finishing creditable second at Lingfield last time,that looked decent effort behind the progressive Godolphin horse Celestial Spheres.Looks open to further improvement on All weather after just three starts .Odds around 4-1 look fair value.
£36.00 EACH-WAY @ 4-1 SKY BET & BETVICTOR * .
(WINNER SP 9-2 PROFIT +£194.00)

(Betting bankroll now stands at £2005 ) 

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Melbourne Cup History: How Often Does The Favourite Triumph?

All the hype surrounded defending champion Almandin and British raider Marmelo ahead of last year’s Melbourne Cup, the richest two-mile race in the world. Legions of punters backed the pair of them in to $7 joint favourites and clutched their betting slips expectantly, waiting for the duel to unfold. But it did not pan out that way. Instead we witnessed an Irish one-two-three as Joseph O’Brien’s $16 shot Rekindling beat his father’s $13 chance Johannes Vermeer to seal a famous victory. Willie Mullins' Max Dynamite, who went off at $20, came in third, and the joint favourites were nowhere to be seen. In the end, Marmelo finished ninth and Almandin was back in 12th.
Bookmakers were celebrating a job well done in the most high-profile event of the horse racing calendar, dubbed the race that stops a nation. “Marmelo and Almandin were both heavily backed before the race, but finished out of the placings, while the winner was a noted drifter today, easing from $13 to $17 before trimming up late into $15,” said Gerard Daffy, media manager of a large Australian bookmaker “He was one of our better results.”

The previous year, Almandin beat the favourite, Hartnell, by five lengths in another blow for punters that were taken in by the hype surrounded the most heavily fancied horse. The last favourite to win the Mebourne Cup was Fiorente, back in 2013. This 3,200m race carries a prize purse north of £6 million, so it attracts the very best runners, trainers and jockeys in the world. The final acceptance fee is an eye-watering $45,000, so owners do not enter their horses unless they think they have a good chance of winning. That means you get a competitive field, stacked with talented runners, most of whom have secured multiple wins at Group 1 level, vanquishing some superstar contenders in the process.
That is why it pays to look further down the card when making a selection ahead of the big race, which takes place on the first Tuesday in November. Rekindling leads the ante post betting in the Melbourne Cup odds for the 2018 renewal, but it is worth noting that the last horse to win this famous race twice in a row was Makybe Diva, who completed a famous hat-trick back in 2005. There have only been five multiple winners – Makybe Diva, Think Big, Rain Lover, Peter Pan and Archer – since the race began in 1861. Superstars like Dunaden, Protectionist and Kingston Rule have all failed to defend their crown, so opposing Rekindling looks like a smart move.

There have been 150 favourites since the race began, and only 34 have won the Melbourne Cup. That is a return of 23%, less than one in four, showing that it pays to oppose the favourite. Archer set the tone back in 1861, when he went off as a heavy outsider by won the race by three lengths, claiming £710 and a gold watch in a winner takes all prize. Since then the Melbourne Cup has continued a tradition of outsiders seizing glory. Four runners – Prince of Penzance, Old Rowley, Wotan and The Pearl – won it at odds of 100/1. A crowd of 101,105 watched Prince of Penzance’s fairy-tale victory in 2015. It was his first ever top-class victory and the first time a female jockey had ever won Australia’s most famous race.

Many favourites are in the mix by the end of the race: 73 out of 150 have placed since the Melbourne Cup began. But the most common winning prices are 10/1 ($11), which has come in 16 times, and 8/1 ($9), which has landed 14 times.

So, what else should you look for when aiming to narrow down this deep and competitive field before making your selection? There have only been two eight-year-old winners and the last three-year-old winner came back in 1941, when Skipton defied the odds to romp to victory. So you probably want to look at horses aged four to seven, and four- and five-year-olds have enjoyed the greatest levels of success, with 44 wins apiece. Only 13 mares and three fillies have won the Melbourne Cup, so it is a male-dominated affair. Barriers five and 11 have been the most successful, while no horse from barrier 18 has ever won the race. All of this data might help you whittle it down to a smaller field to choose from, but the main point is that you should be prepared to oppose the favourite and seek value elsewhere.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

2K to 10k Betting Challenge (Bet No 3) (Thu 25th Jan )

The 2K to 10K challenge continues on Thursday.

January has been slow start for challenge ,though January & February can often be quiet months .

The bankroll now stands at £1886,
stakes drop slightly to £75.00 ,after the last selection Kasbah finished dead heat third at Lingfield @ 6-1 .

Moving on to Thursday we have interesting fillies & mares contest on the turf at Meydan .8 runners declared for the 1 mile (group two ) Cape Verdi at 4.50 .The four main contenders look to be Promising Run , Opal Tiara, Rehana & Absolute Blast  .

PROMISING RUN : Five-year-old bay mare ,winning 4 out 14 on turf  .Last victory came in (group two) 9f Al Rashidiya at Meydan in January 2017.Finished 3rd of nine in 1 mile listed race at Lingfield in November .Solid claims on last seasons Meydan form,though has been below par on recent starts.

OPAL TIARA : Five-year-old bay mare ,winning 5 out 25 .Had some useful form at Meydan last season ,including finishing close second in this race last year .Also won the 9f (group two)  Balanchine Stakes at Meydan in February.Made promising reapperance in 9f (group three ) Singspiel Stakes,finishing good fourth of 15 behind Benbati earlier this month .Looks strong contender .

REHANA : Four-year-old Irish bay filly ,winning 2 out 10 .Had some decent form last season ,including winning the 7f (group three ) Canford Cliffs Stakes at Naas in May .Made encourging reappearance in decent 7f handicap at Meydan two weeks ago ,finishing fourth of 16 behind D'bai ,off mark 104 .Should be thereabouts ,though unproven over this longer trip.

ABSOLUTE BLAST : Six-year-old bay mare ,winning 4 out 19 (0 out 8 on turf ) Consistent sort ,had some decent placed form on turf last season , including finishing second in group three Princess Elizabeth stakes at Epsom in June .Also finished fair third in group one Premio Lydia Tesio in Italy in October .Each-way claims ,though best form on poly track .

VERDICT : Promising Run will have her supporters,having shown all her best form here at Meydan ,though hasn't looked at her best on recent starts,including when beaten in listed company on her last two starts.Odds around 15-8 look no value,returning to group two company .

OPAL TIARA should go well on pick last seasons form ,including when only beaten half-lengh behind Very Special in this race last year. Should be spot on after finishing good fourth of 15  behind the useful Benbati in Singspiel Stakes on seasonal reappearance.Odds 7-2 look fair each-way value,with the dead eight runners.

£37.50 EACH-WAY @ 7-2 PADDY POWER*
(FOURTH SP 3-1 LOSS £75.00 ) 

(Betting bankroll running total £1811 stakes drop to £72.00 ) 

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

More Value Available Away from Footpad in the 2018 Arkle

£26.04. That’s the returns (including stake) that anyone betting on the last three Arkle Chases would get had they placed a £10 accumulator bet on Un De Sceaux (4/6, 2015), Douvan (1/4, 2016) and Altior (1/4 2017). Not much in the way of profit for predicting the winner of three races. While the Arkle Chase does not always go to the favourite – 2014 saw Western Warrior win at 33/1 – five of the last six races have been won by odds-on favourites. It’s safe to say, then, that the Arkle normally goes with the betting markets.

Footpad Not in the Same League as Altior, Douvan

Which brings us to this year’s ante-post favourite, Footpad. Willie Mullins’ six-year-old is leading the way in the current odds at 6/4 with various bookmakers. Footpad had a decent, if somewhat mixed, career over hurdles before switching to chasing at the start of this season. Two wins from two (Racing Post Novice Chase and Irish Stallion Farms Chase) have happened since that change.  Both wins came over a distance of 11 lengths. While those runs were reasonably impressive, the field was not of the highest quality in either race. Death Duty was probably the biggest player in the Racing Post Novice Chase, but fell after showing some early promise. Footpad has yet to face a worthy opponent.

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY

Check out Expert Advice on Cheltenham Before you Bet

If you read the latest Cheltenham 2018 betting tips, you will see that several big races could be open this year, allowing for punters to get some value. The Arkle should be treated no differently. The table below shows some of the other players in the ante-post betting markets for this year’s Arkle:

What You Should Note:
Sceau Royal
Like Footpad, has been excellent since being switched from hurdles to chasing. Beat the fancied Finian’s Oscar by 50L in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in December.
Petit Mouchoir
Another runner who has switched from hurdling. Petit Mouchoir was 3rd in last year’s Champion Hurdle. Made a big statement in his chasing debut at Punchestown.
Brain Power**
Record in chasing reads as one win and one unseated rider. Punters will need to see at least one more good performance (see below) before parting with big money.
North Hill Harvey
Three wins from the last four at Cheltenham suggests North Hill Harvey could be a value bet. Has a preference for soft ground however, so the weather could have a big impact.

*Odds taken from Ladbrokes on 19/01/2018.

** Runs in the upcoming Clarence House Chase. A win could see odds cut for the Arkle Chase. 

Time Could Be Ripe for Another Big Price Winner in the Arkle

It is not inconceivable that Footpad continues the run of favourites winning the Arkle, but the value is certainly available elsewhere. The point is: punters knew that Altior was going to romp home last year; they knew Douvan would win with room to spare in 2016. Can the same be said for Footpad?  Any one of the four horses mentioned above could challenge Footpad, and few would be shocked to see any of them in the Winners’ Enclosure. 

There is every chance that the Arkle could turn out to be one of the value races of the Festival. The markets and movers are certainly worth keeping an eye on over the next few weeks.