Breeders Cup Preview Sat 6th Nov (Three recommended bets )

Breeders Cup Championship Saturday with over $22 million in prize money with nine races .

Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf) (3yo+) Winner £759,124 12 runners 1m3f Firm ITV4

 

race conditions  £1,343,066 guaranteed For  3yo+ fillies & mares Weight for age  3yo from 4yo+ 4lb Penalty value  1st  £759,124.09 2nd  £248,175.18 3rd  £131,386.86 4th  £72,992.70 5th  £43,795.62 6th  £29,197.08 7th  £14,598.54 8th  £14,598.54 9th  £14,598.54 10th  £14,598.54 

 

The Japanese mare LOVES ONLY YOU looks interesting here ,having shown some useful form this season ,including winning G1 QE11 Cup at Sha Tin in April ,also finished close third in G1 Sheema Classic at Meydan at World Cup meeting ,only beaten half-lengh by (122) rated Mishriff ,with another group one winner Walton Street (115) back in fourth .Returned from 4 month break with good second in G2 at Sapporo last time.Solid claims GUIDE PRICE 4-1 or above .

 

Of the others the American Filly War Like Goddess looks the main danger ,after landing four timer in G1 Flower Bowl Stakes at Saratoga last time .Looks improving filly open to further improvement .

 

Both Love & Audarya would be big dangers on last years group one winning form ,though have both looked disappointing since finishing first and second in Prince Of Wales stakes at Royal Ascot in June.

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Qatar Racing Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Main Track) (Dirt) (3yo+) Winner £759,124 9 runners 6f Fast ITV4

 

race conditions  £1,343,066 guaranteed For  3yo+ Penalty value  1st  £759,124.09 2nd  £248,175.18 3rd  £131,386.86 4th  £72,992.70 5th  £43,795.62 6th  £29,197.08 7th  £14,598.54 8th  £14,598.54 9th  £14,598.54 10th  £14,598.54 

 

The speedy JACKIE'S WARRIOR stands out in the Breeders Cup Dirt Sprint ,has excellent record over one turn races (8 out 9) and is unbeaten over 6 furlongs 3 out 3 ,including bolting up in G2 Gallant Bob stakes last time .From stall two should take plenty of catching .GUIDE PRICE EVENS or above.

 

Dr Schivel looks best of the others ,after landing five timer in Santa Anita Sprint Championship last time .Will need furher improvement ,though still rates as main danger to Jackie's Warrior . .

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Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+) Winner £1,518,248 14 runners 1m4f Firm ITV

 

race conditions  £2,686,131 guaranteed For  3yo+ Weight for age  3yo from 4yo+ 5lb Penalty value  1st  £1,518,248.18 2nd  £496,350.37 3rd  £262,773.72 4th  £145,985.40 5th  £87,591.24 6th  £58,394.16 7th  £29,197.08 8th  £29,197.08 9th  £29,197.08 10th  £29,197.08 

  

The tough Irish mare TARNAWA  is clear pick on form (6lb clear on official figures).Finished very creditable second in the ARC last time .Won this race last year in good style, coming from near last to first .Has wide draw to overcome this year,though shouldn't be problem for horse that will be dropped out in the early stages .Should take plenty beating in not the strongest renewal of Breeders Cup turf . GUIDE PRICE 6-4 or above .

 

Walton Street looks best of the rest .Won the Canadian International last time in impressive style .That wasn't the strongest G1 race, though is consistent sort who normally runs his race.Each-way claims at around 9-1 .

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Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Main Track) (Dirt) (3yo+) Winner £2,277,372 9 runners 1m2f Fast ITV

 

race conditions  £4,072,993 guaranteed For  3yo+ Weight for age  3yo from 4yo+ 3lb Penalty value  1st  £2,277,372.26 2nd  £788,321.17 3rd  £394,160.58 4th  £218,978.10 5th  £131,386.86 6th  £87,591.24 7th  £43,795.62 8th  £43,795.62 9th  £43,795.62 10th  £43,795.62 

 

ESSENTIAL QUALITY has excellent record winning 8 out 9 ,including winning Breeders Cup Juvenile dirt at Keenland last season,has been in good form this season winning the G1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga last time ,with his only defeat coming in Kentucky Derby when badly hampered at the start.Should get the race run to suit with plenty pace in the race .GUIDE PRICE 3-1 or above

 

Hot Rod Charlie looks the main danger ,after winning Pennsylvania Derby in good style last time at Parx ,had previously finished second to Essential Quality in Belmont stakes over 12f ,though back over this 10f trip looks threat. .

 

Knicks Go has been put in favourite at around 5-2 ,after bolting up on his last two starts over 9 furlongs ,including winning G1 Whitney Stakes in August ,though not certain get his own way in front with plenty pace in the race, the extra furlong also has to be question mark.

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BREEDERS CUP SATURDAY 6TH NOV RECOMMENDED BETS: 

 

LOVES ONLY YOU 8.59 DEL MAR BREEDERS CUP FILLYS & MARES TURF

1PT WIN (PMU ) (AMERICAN ODDS) 5.30

1PT SHOW 1-2-3 (AMERICAN ODDS) 2.00

(WINNER PMU 43-10 PROFIT £530.00)  

JACKIES WARRIOR 9.38 DEL MAR BREEDERS CUP  DIRT SPRINT

TARNAWA 11.40 DEL MAR BREEDERS CUP TURF

1PT WIN DOUBLE @ 4-1 WILLIAM HILLS 

(BOTH UNPLACED SP 8-13 & 7-4 LOSS £100.00)

 

ESSENTIAL QUALITY 12.40 BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC   

1PT WIN @ 3-1 BET365 

(THIRD SP 7-4 LOSS £100.00)

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STAKED £400.00 /4.00 PTS

RETURN £730.00 /7.30 PTS 

TOTAL PROFIT £330/+3.30 PTS

 

Breeders Cup Stats & Course Preview

Breeders Cup ,2 Days. 14 Races.$31 Million in Prize Money .

What was once a one-day, seven-race event is now a two-day, 14-race celebration of sport of horse racing. The Breeders' Cup kicks off with Future Stars Friday, comprised of five juvenile races featuring horse racing's brightest rising stars.

Championship Saturday is one of the richest days in racing awarding over $22 million in prizemoney over 9 races, culminating in the defining event of the international racing season, the $6 Million Breeders' Cup Classic.

DEL MAR COURSE HISTORY

Founded in 1937 by Bing Crosby, Pat O'Brien, Jimmy Durante, Charles Howard, and Oliver Hardy, the Del Mar Race Track is a one-mile main dirt track and a seven-furlong turf course, which runs during the summer and can stable more than a thousand horses. 

On opening day, Bing Crosby stood at the gates to greet fans and bolster national attention. His presence spurred a bright future. A year later, riding a wave of positive press coverage, the ocean-side horseracing jewel hosted a $25,000 winner-take-all match race between the famed Seabiscuit and Ligaroti. The historic event turned out to be a media sensation as well, becoming the first nationwide broadcast of a Thoroughbred race by NBC Radio.

COURSE GUIDE :DEL MAR

Del Mar will host the Breeders’ Cup for a second time, having done so previously in 2017.

The turf races will be run over firm ground and the dirt will almost certainly be fast. Both courses have the tight, left-handed turns one typically expects from American racing.

Here's what to look out for on November 5th and 6th, live on Sky Sports Racing & ITV

COURSES

Del Mar runs all of its races left-handed. It has a one-mile oval with chutes for seven furlong and ten-furlong races. There is also a turf course that is a a seven-eighths mile oval with a diagonal straightaway chute for 8.5 furlong races and 9 furlong races.

As far as track trends go, it changes around but generally speaking the dirt races have a little bit of an outside flow, or perhaps more accurately, the rail is often not the place you want to be.

 

 

                                                                

 

TURF SPRINTS :

As one might expect, the rail often proves advantageous in turf sprints at Del Mar. Over the past year, rail runners have clicked at a 22% strike rate and yielded an impressive +20% return-on-investment. Outside draws (10+) have done terribly in the same timeframe, 5% winners with a -84% ROI. It’s worth noting that the outside runners have placed 19% of the time, suggesting that there is some unluckiness here. The best projected speeds types do incredibly well: 32% winners with a +25% ROI

DIRT SPRINTS :

As noted earlier, Del Mar often has a dead rail, or at least a rail that isn’t the type of advantage you’d expect. Rail runners in dirt sprints do just OK: 11% winners with a takeout-beating -13% ROI. The outside runners win at a higher rate, 17%, but lose more on a per bet basis: -20%. Projected best speed types do very well: 29% winners with a +4% ROI.

The runners projected to be the best late speed underperform in market terms: 18% winners with a -45% ROI.

DIRT RACES AT ONE MILE OR OVER :

No post position stats of note but that pro-speed trend is here once again with the best projected speed runners winning at 21% with a +9% ROI.

In percentage terms, the numbers for projected late speed in longer dirt races are identical to those in sprints: 21% winners/-28% ROI. In both cases they win their fair share, but the crowd overbets them.

TURF RACES AT ONE MILE OR LONGER :

The pro-speed trend at Del Mar continues in the longer turf races.

Best projected speed runners win at 23% and have a fantastic +38% ROI.

The best late pace runners – who typically excel on turf – win at a lower-than-expected 18% with a poor -45% ROI.

*RECOMMENDED BETS WILL BE POSTED LATER IN THE WEEK* 

Lingfield Preview (Two Listed races) Thu 28th October

Two £45,000 Listed races for fillies and mares headline the action at Lingfield Park on Thursday, October 28. 

The main event is the Coral EBF Fleur De Lys Fillies' Stakes (3.23pm) over a mile, a Fast-Track Qualifier for the £150,000 Coral All-Weather Fillies & Mares Championships at Newcastle on Finals Day. 

The other Listed contest on the card is the Coral EBF River Eden Fillies' Stakes (2.13pm, 14 runners) over a mile and five furlongs.

 

Coral EBF River Eden Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+) Winner £25,520 14 runners 1m5f Standard SKY (STALLS Inside)

 

race conditions  £45,000 guaranteed For  3yo+, which are EBF eligible, which have not won a Group 1 Pattern race after March 31st, 2021 Weights  3yo 8st 11lb; 4yo+ 9st 3lb Penalties  after March 31st 2021, a winner of a Listed race 3lb; of a Group 3 race 5lb; of a Group 2 race 7lb Weight for age  3yo from 4yo 6lb Entries  20 pay £225 Penalty value  1st  £25,519.50 2nd  £9,675.00 3rd  £4,842.00 4th  £2,412.00 5th  £1,210.50 6th  £607.50 

 

14 runners declared for fillies and mares 1M 5F listed stakes on poly track at Lingfield ,with the top rated the Charlie Appleby trained Sayyida heading the market at around 5-2 ,has shown progressive form on turf this season ,including winning twice on July course at Newmarket ,also finished good second in 12f Listed race on Rowley Mile course at Newmarket last month ,this longer trip may well suit,though in competitive looking race, odds 5-2 look short enough for horse yet to race on All Weather .

 

The John & Thady Gosden trained BEHOLDING looks interesting here returning to All Weather ,after bolting up on her previous two starts on poly track,including winning here at Lingfield by 10L in Novice stakes in September.Takes big step up in class,though this lightly raced filly looks open to plenty more improvent over this longer trip on All Weather,having only made her debut in August .Odds 5-1 or above look very fair each-way value .

 

Of the others dual course winner Viola should be thereabouts ,finished decent second at Doncaster last time behind Sea La Rosa in class 2 handicap ,giving that rival 13lb . Has bit to find on official figures ,though goes well here at Lingfield (121) each-way claims .

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Coral EBF Fleur De Lys Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (AWC Fast-Track Qualifier) (Class 1) (3yo+) Winner £25,520 12 runners 1m1y Standard SKY (STALLS Outside)

 

race conditions  £45,000 guaranteed For  3yo+, which are EBF eligible, which have not won a Group 1 Pattern race after March 31st, 2021 Weights  3yo 8st 11lb; 4yo+ 9st Penalties  after March 31st 2021, a winner of a Listed race 3lb; of a Group 3 race 5lb; of a Group 2 race 7lb Weight for age  3yo from 4yo+ 3lb Entries  32 pay £225 Penalty value  1st  £25,519.50 2nd  £9,675.00 3rd  £4,842.00 4th  £2,412.00 5th  £1,210.50 6th  £607.50 

 

The consistent MAMOORA should go well after finishing second on her last two starts in listed company at Longchamp & Newmarket ,producing her best run of season last time, when finishing 1.75 lengh second behind Soft Whisper .Not raced on All weather for over two years ,though did win class 2 handicap at Chelmsford on her last start, back in September 2019 .Looks the one to beat in this Fast Track Qualifier .Odds 5-2 or above look value .

 

Of the others Declared Interest looks possible danger ,has bit to find with Mamoora on Newmarket form , though does have good record on All Weather poly track (211) ,including winning handicap at Chelmsford last season .

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THURSDAY 28TH OCTOBER RECOMMENDED BETS :

BEHOLDING 2.13 LINGFIELD (RIVER EDEN LISTED STAKES)

0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @ 5-1BET365 *

(UNPLACED SP 10-3 LOSS £100.00)

 

MAMOORA 3.23 LINGFIELD (FLEUR DE LYS LISTED STAKES FTQ)

1PT WIN @ 3-1 BET365*

(WINNER SP 2-1 PROFIT £300.00)

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1/4 PT EACH-WAY DOUBLE @ 23-1 BET365

(UNPLACED & WINNER LOSS £50.00

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STAKED £250.00 /2.50 PTS

RETURN £400.00 /4.00 PTS

TOTAL PROFIT £150.00/+1.50 PTS

Ascot Champions Day Preview (Sat 16th Oct 2021 )

On Saturday we have 10th running of British champions day from Ascot ,with an excellent looking card ,featuring four group one races and group two .

Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+) Winner £283,550 12 runners 1m7f209y Good To Soft ITV (STALLS Inside)

 

 

race conditions  £500,000 guaranteed For  3yo+ Weights  3yo colts & geldings 8st 13lb; fillies 8st 10lb; 4yo+ colts & geldings 9st 7lb; fillies 9st 4lb Weight for age  3yo from 4yo+ 8lb pay £1,750 Penalty value  1st  £283,550.00 2nd  £107,500.00 3rd  £53,800.00 4th  £26,800.00 5th  £13,450.00 6th  £6,750.00 

 

Last years winner Trueshan is clearly the one to beat on form, after winning the Prix Du Cadran in good style at Longchamp ,that was decent effort beating Stradivarius 4L ,though not ideal having tough  race on testing ground over 2M 4F just two weeks ago .Also would prefer softer ground .At short odds looks worth taking on .

 

BARON SAMEDI looks interesting after finishing creditable third in Irish St Leger at Curragh last month behind Sonnyboyliston,staying on nicely to finish never nearer 2L third .Had some decent form last season ,including winning group two at Longchamp .Should be suited returning to this longer trip having won Belmont Gold Cup over 2 miles in June .Value Price 6-1 or above

 

Of the others grand servant Stradivarius should be thereabouts after finishing fair second to Trueshan in Prix Du Cadran ,this better ground should suit ,though did have hard race on testing ground and doesn't have greatest record in this race 

 

(1) BARON SAMEDI (2) TRUESHAN (3) STRADIVARIUS 

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Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+) Winner £283,550 8 runners 1m3f211y Good To Soft ITV (STALLS Inside)

 

race conditions  £500,000 guaranteed For  3yo+ NOTE: Horses will only be eligible to run in this race provided that they have a current BHA Handicap Rating of 80 or higher at midday of the confirmation stage. Horses which do not qualify for a rating may also be eligible providing the BHA Handicapper is satisfied that the horse's racecourse performances up to and including the day before confirmation merit a provisional assessment of 80 or higher. Horses which have not run will not be eligible. Weights  3yo 8st 13lb; 4yo+ 9st 5lb Weight for age  3yo from 4yo+ 6lb pay £2,185 Penalty value  1st  £283,550.00 2nd  £107,500.00 3rd  £53,800.00 4th  £26,800.00 5th  £13,450.00 6th  £6,750.00 

 

This race has cut up somewhat with first three in ante-post betting Free Wind , La Petite Coco & Love not being declared for race .On official BHA ratings Snowfall (120 ) is (10lb clear) ,after bolting up in English, Irish and Yorkshire Oaks ,though has been slightly disappointing on her last two starts in France ,especially when getting turned over at 1-5 in Prix Vermeille at Lonchamp last month .

 

Clearly the one to beat on her early season form ,though has had long season and odds around 4-5 make little appeal, after having quite hard race in the Arc on heavy ground only 13 days ago .

 

At the prices ALBAFLORA looks the each-way play against the short price favourite ,was impressive 7L winner over C&D at Ascot on her reapperance in listed race back in May,bit disappointing on her next three starts ,though was back to form last time when finishing staying on 4L second to Snowfall in Yorkshire Oaks, on ground much quicker than she prefers .Will be suited by this easier ground, can take advantage if favourite is not quite at her best .Odds 5-1 or above look very solid each-way value .

 

Of the others Invite looks most interesting, after winning 12f listed race at Chester on her first start for Andrew Balding .Takes big step up in class ,though looks open to improvement over this trip .

(1) ALBAFLORA (2) SNOWFALL (3) INVITE

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Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) (British Champions Mile) (Class 1) (3yo+) Winner £623,810 10 runners 1m Good To Soft ITV (STALLS Far side)

 

race conditions  £1,100,000 guaranteed For  3yo+ NOTE: Horses will only be eligible to run in this race provided that they have a current BHA Handicap Rating of 80 or higher at midday of the confirmation stage. Horses which do not qualify for a rating may also be eligible providing the BHA Handicapper is satisfied that the horse's racecourse performances up to and including the day before confirmation merit a provisional assessment of 80 or higher. Horses which have not run will not be eligible. Weights  3yo colts & geldings 9st 1lb; fillies 8st 12lb; 4yo+ colts & geldings 9st 4lb; fillies 9st 1lb Weight for age  3yo from 4yo+ 3lb pay £4,800 Penalty value  1st  £623,810.00 2nd  £236,500.00 3rd  £118,360.00 4th  £58,960.00 5th  £29,590.00 6th  £14,850.00

Five time group one winner  PALACE PIER should be difficult to beat ,has been in great form this season ,winning 4 out 4 ,including three group one races.The colts only defeat coming in this race last year ,though that was on very deep ground and losing shoe didn't help, can be forgiven for his only defeat in 10 starts .Value Price 6-4 or above .

The unbeaten Baaeed looks main danger on official ratings after winning 5 out 5 this season ,including winning G1 Prix Du Moulin at Longchamp last time,though that looked very weak group one race,with second, third &fourth all finishing well beaten next time.Will need more improvement to land this stronger group one race .

Of the others last years winner The Revenant has each-way claims after finishing eyecatching second in G2 Daniel Wilderstein at Lonchamp last time ,would won that race with better ride ,though drying ground conditions may not be ideal .

(1) PALACE PIER (2) THE REVENANT (3) BAAEED

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Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo+) Winner £714,546 10 runners 1m1f212y Good To Soft ITV (STALLS Inside)

 

race conditions  £1,200,000 guaranteed For  3yo+ NOTE: Horses will only be eligible to run in this race provided that they have a current BHA Handicap Rating of 80 or higher at midday of the confirmation stage. Horses which do not qualify for a rating may also be eligible providing the BHA Handicapper is satisfied that the horse's racecourse performances up to and including the day before confirmation merit a provisional assessment of 80 or higher. Horses which have not run will not be eligible. Weights  3yo colts & geldings 9st 1lb; fillies 8st 12lb; 4yo+ colts & geldings 9st 5lb; fillies 9st 2lb Weight for age  3yo from 4yo+ 4lb pay £5,250 Penalty value  1st  £714,546.00 2nd  £270,900.00 3rd  £135,576.00 4th  £67,536.00 5th  £33,894.00 6th  £17,010.00 

 

MISHRIFF looked impressive when bolting up in Juddmonte International at York in August ,producing career best to beat Alenquer 6L in fast time ,had previously been outstayed by Adayar in King George at Ascot over 1M 4F .On 7lb better terms and over his optimum trip can reverse form with Adayar and land his third group one race.Value price 7-4 or above .

 

Derby winner Adayar looks main danger after winning King George in good style at Ascot in July ,though slightly surprising he's turning up at Ascot just 13 days after finishing fourth in ARC on very testing ground at Longchamp .Also question mark over this shorter trip, all his improvement has come over 12 furlongs .

 

Of the others last years winner Addeybb has each-way claims ,goes particularly well here at Ascot winning three times at course.Has been lightly raced this season, not run since finishing second in Eclipse at Sandown in July .Should be thereabouts ,though would preferred bit softer ground conditions .

(1) MISHRIFF (2) ADAYAR (3) ADDEYBB 

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 RECOMMENDED BETS SATURDAY 16TH OCTOBER 

 

BARON SAMEDI 1.25 ASCOT LONG DISTANCE CUP 

0.50PTS EACH-WAY @ 13-2 BETFAIRSPORTSBOOK 

(UNPLACED SP 9-1 LOSS £100.00)

 

ALBAFLORA 2.35 ASCOT FILLIES & MARES STAKES

0.50PTS EACH-WAY @ 6-1 BETFAIRSPORTSBOOK & PADDY POWER

(SECOND (SHORT HEAD) SP 3-1 PROFIT £10.00)

 

PALACE PIER 3.10 ASCOT QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES 

MISHRIFF 3.50 ASCOT CHAMPION STAKES 

1PT WIN DOUBLE 6.9-1 BETFAIRSPORTSBOOK & PADDY POWER 

(SECOND & UNPLACED 6-4 &13-8 LOSS £100.00)

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TOTAL LOSS £190.00    

Future Champions Festival Day Two Preview,with One bet (Sat 9th Oct 2021)

One winner from two selections on Friday with nice £261 profit, with Ville De Grace battling on well to land G3 Pride Stakes @4-1 for Sir Michael Stoute and Richard Kingscote

Moving on to Day two Future Champions Festival we have four group races ,with the group one Dewhurst the feature race at 2.55 .

Not easy meeting on Saturday at Newmarket ,with few tricky races on the card ,though the G3 Zetland Stakes looks interesting at 1.45

Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (2yo) Winner £34,026 9 runners 1m2f Good To Soft ITV (STALLS Centre)

race conditions  £60,000 guaranteed For  2yo Weights  colts & geldings 9st 2lb; fillies 8st 13lb Penalties  a winner of a Group 3 race 3lb; of a Group 1 or Group 2 race 5lb Entries  20 pay £600 Penalty value  1st  £34,026.00 2nd  £12,900.00 3rd  £6,456.00 4th  £3,216.00 5th  £1,614.00 6th  £810.00 

 

UNCONQUERABLE looks interesting contender stepping up in trip ,finished creditable third in group two Royal Lodge over mile at Newmarket last time ,staying on nicely to finish never nearer third behind two useful sorts (Royal Patronage & Corobus) .Looks open to plenty improvement over this 10 furlong trip  .Odds 4-1 or above look solid each-way value .

 

The 2.1 million colt Hafit looks be the main danger, after finishing fair second behind the 107 rated Triple Time in 1 mile listed race last time , open to more improvement stepping up in trip ,though odds around 13-8 look short enough in this stronger group three contest.

 

Of the others ,Charlie Appleby's other runner Goldspur was impressive 6 lengh winner of Novice stakes at Sandown on soft ground on debut .Not easy weigh up that form ( second from race well beaten since) takes big step up in class here over this longer trip ,though can't be ruled out in interesting race.

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SATURDAY 9TH OCTOBER RECOMMENDED BETS:

 

UNCONQUERABLE 1.45 NEWMARKET G3 ZETLAND STAKES

0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @ 4-1 BET365 (BOG)

(SECOND SP 5-1 LEVEL )