Saturday, December 15, 2018

2K to 10K Betting Challenge (Bet No 38 ) Sat 15th Dec

2K to 10K betting challenge continues on Saturday from Newcastle .

The betting bankroll stands at £2588,after last selection Mythical Madness finished very disappointing 6th in Sunracing Handicap at Wolverhampton .The stakes drop down to £104 .

Moving on to Saturday we have decent looking class two conditions race from Newcastle.

9 runners declared for the Betway Stayers condition stakes (Fast Track Qualifier ) over 2 miles on the Tapeta at Newcastle .The three standout contenders are Higher Power , Festival Of Ages & Watersmeet .

HIGHER POWER : 6-Y-0 Bay Gelding.Decent record on All Weather, winning 3 out 8  ,including winning the Northumberland Plate in 2017 over C&D at Newcastle .Returned to winning form at Kempton last month ,finishing creditable second in 2 mile handicap at Kempton ,off mark 105 .1lb clear on official BHA ratings,though not won since July 2017.

FESTIVAL OF AGES : 4-Y-0 Bay Gelding ,winning 2 out 3 .Lightly raced sort ,won 12f maiden at Newmarket in July .Also won weak 10f Novice Stakes at Kempton last time on All Weather debut .Takes big step up in class here ,though looks open to further improvement after three starts .Unproven over this longer trip .

WATERSMEET : 7-Y-0 Grey Gelding ,All Weather Specialist winning 12 out 25 .Excellent record in class two conditions races over last two seasons, winning (5 out 8) 31113211.Returned to winning form last month ,landing class two handicap at Kempton in good style.Not won at Newcastle,though finished placed on all three starts,including fair third in this race last year.Solid claims .

VERDICT :The lightly raced Festival Of Ages looks interesting contender for top connections ,though odds around 13-8 look incredibly short for horse only rated 94 .Has 12lb to find on official ratings .Also far from certain to be suited by this extended 2 mile trip .

WATERSMEET is proven winner in this grade ,including winning 3 out 4 in (Fast Track Qualifiers) Looked as good as ever when making all in class two handicap at Kempton last month.Should take plenty of catching in this conditions race .Odds around 7-2 look very fair value .

C&D winner Higher Power looks main danger,after finishing behind Watersmeet at Kempton last time .On 3lb better terms,should be close between the pair ,though hasn't won for nearly 18 months.Will possibly have to settle for another place .

£52.00 EACH-WAY @ 7-2 BETVICTOR ,BET365

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

One For Arthur Punted for 2019 Grand National Ahead of Reappearance

The 2017 Grand National winner, One For Arthur, missed the showpiece last season due to injury, but is back and being readied for another tilt at this special race in April 2019. He is on the verge of a comeback and is entered in the Becher Chase, which is run on the Grand National course, at Aintree on December 8th. 

There has been a surge of money placed on One For Arthur to win the 2019 Grand National ahead of his comeback run, which points to him being in good health and ready to come back and show his best. The Lucinda Russell yard is not messing around with the horse, and they look set to put him over the big national fences in his first race back. The horse will be ten when we get round to the 2019 National, but we haven’t seen him since winning the 2017 race, and in comparison to other horses who are the same age, he has relatively low mileage on the clock.

Back in 2017, One For Arthur was a very impressive winner of the national, winning the race by over four lengths. He won the race off a handicap mark of 148 that day, and since then he has been moved up to a mark of 154, which puts him higher, but still at a weight where he should be competitive if he comes back and returns with the same amount of ability. 

Assuming that One For Arthur returns shortly if he can show he retains ability, or he wins a race, then the odds on him winning the Grand National will more than likely tumble. Those betting on the horse now are taking a leap of faith that the horse is coming back the same and is handicapped to win. If he can prove either of those then momentum and support behind the horse would surely grow ahead of the big race.

Something else that would point to One For Arthur being well backed is that he has won the race before. That means the public all know who he is, and they remember his famous victory. That is key in a race like the National, where many punters who bet only do so once a year when this race comes around. Those punters will remember this horse, especially those who backed him, and they will stick with him. That should force the price on him down even further - he is certainly a horse that the whole nation like and appreciate. 

Assuming he gets to the race and tries to win it again, a horse he is likely to take on at Aintree will be the 2018 winner Tiger Roll. He won nicely and completed a Cheltenham Festival and Grand National double last season - something he will be aiming to do once again in 2019. We have already seen Tiger Roll this season; he made a pleasing comeback when not fully fit at Cheltenham around the Cross Country course in November. 

The plan for Tiger Roll is to remain busy just like he was last season, and he will again try to win the big double at the two Spring festivals. That will begin with the Cross Country chase once more at Cheltenham, before moving onto Aintree to try and win back to back Grand National titles. Many horses will try and stand in his way, and one of those looks set to be the 2017 winner One For Arthur, who is fit and back trying to win his crown.

Saturday, December 01, 2018

2K to 10K Betting Challenge (Bet No 37 ) Sat 1st Dec

2K to 10K Betting Challenge continues on Saturday evening from Wolverhampton .

The betting bankroll stands at £2696 ,after Master The World won the Churchill Stakes  at 6-1 for tidy £338.00  profit .Stakes now  increase to £108.00 .
Nice to start the All Weather season with winner ,hopefully we can increase the profits over the winter months .

Moving on to Saturday we have decent looking class two handicap from Wolveserhampon.

8 runners declared for Sunracing handicap over 1M 142YDS on the tapeta at 7.45 .This looks quite competitive handicap the three main contenders look to be Original Choice ,Mythical Madness & Salute The Soldier .

ORIGINAL CHOICE : 4-Y-0 Chestnut Gelding ,winning 4 out 17 .Been in fair form on turf this season ,winning class two 1m handicap at Wetherby in May,off mark 94 .Lightly raced on All Weather,though won 7f handicap at Wolverhampton back in 2017.Also finished close third in 1m handicap at Lingfield 2 weeks ago .Should be thereabouts ,though will need career best off mark 99.

MYTHICAL MADNESS : 7-Y-0 Bay Gelding ,winning 7 out 53 .All three victory's on All Weather coming here at Wolverhampton .Not the most consistent sort ,though landed 1 mile class three handicap at Haydock in July .Returned to form two weeks ago, finishing close second in class two 8f handicap on All Weather at Lingfield .Looks fairly handicapped off 2lb higher mark.

SALUTE THE SOLDIER :3-Y-0 Bay Gelding ,winning 2 out 5 .Has decent record on All Weather (211), landing two class 4 handicaps in good style ,including winning 1 mile handicap at Kempton earlier this month.Up 13lb in weights for those two recent victories.Also takes step up in class here ,though looks open to further improvement on All Weather .

VERDICT :Salute The Soldier looks progressive sort ,after winning his last two starts in good style ,though odds around 15-8 look poor value for horse taking two grade hike in class,off 7lb higher mark.

 Three time course winner MYTHICAL MADNESS should go well,after finishing creditable second at Lingfield last time.That looked decent effort in fast time, after not getting the best of runs in closing stages .Will be suited returning to Wolverhampton over this slightly longer trip .Odds around 6-1 look solid e-way value .
£54.00 EACH-WAY @ 6-1 BETVICTOR 
(UNPLACED SP 9-1 LOSS £108.00 )

Friday, November 16, 2018

2K to 10K Betting Challenge (Bet No 36) Sat 17th Nov

2K to 10K Betting challenge continues on Saturday from Lingfield . 

The Betting Bankroll stands at £2358 (+£358) after Donjuan Triumphant won the Wentworth Stakes at 4-1 for £206.00 profit.Nice to finish the turf season with winner.

Moving on to Saturday the All Weather season kicks into gear,with two good quality listed races from Lingfield .Going concentrate on the Churchill Stakes at 2.45

9 Runners declared for 10f Churchill Listed Stakes on the poly track .This looks interesting listed contest ,with the three main contenders .Addeybb, Master The World & Scarlet Dragon .

ADDEYBB : 4-Y-0 Chesnut Gelding ,winning 5 out 9 .Shown some useful form on turf this season ,including winning the G2 Bet365 Mile at Sandown in April,though has been disappointing in G1 company on his last two starts .Takes big drop in class on his All Weather Debut ,though has to defy 7lb G2 penalty .

MASTER THE WORLD : 7-Y-0 Grey Gelding ,winning 2 out 7 on All Weather.Had some excellent form here at Lingfield last season,including winning this race last year .Also won the Winter Derby and finished second in Easter Classic over C&D at Lingfield .Shown very little on turf this season ,though will be suited returning to Lingfield on poly track .

SCARLET DRAGON : 5-Y-0 Bay Gelding,winning 5 out 25 on turf .Not won since October 2016,though has shown some creditable placed form ,including finishing close second in G3 September Stakes on All Weather last season ,also finished fair third in St  Simon Stakes at Newbury in October .Should be thereabouts,though drop in trip may not be ideal .

VERDICT : The 117 rated Addeybb is clearly the one to beat on his group two winning form earlier in the season,though faces no easy task under 7lb (G2) penalty .Also has question mark ,having been well beaten on his last two starts.The big drop in class will help ,though odds around 7-4 look poor value on his All Weather debut, over this longer trip .

Last years winner MASTER THE WORLD will need bounce back to form,after some disappointing efforts on turf this season ,though goes particarly well here on poly track at Lingfield ,including winning Winter Derby and finishing close second in Easter Classic earlier this year .Odds around 6-1 look fair each-way value .
(WINNER SP 6-1 PROFIT +£338.40)

Friday, November 09, 2018

2K to 10K Betting Challenge (Bet No 35 ) Sat 10th Nov

2K to 10K Betting challenge continues on Saturday from Doncaster.

The Betting Bankroll stands at £2152 (+£152) after Librisa Breeze finished unplaced in Champions Sprint at Ascot.

2018 has not been great season on the turf,with too many seconds and thirds,though overall still showing small profit, as the All Weather season gets underway .

Moving on to the final day of flat turf season ,we have interesting listed sprint from Doncaster .

16 runners declared for 6f Wentworth Listed Stakes.On ground described as good ,though overnight rain forecast  .This looks high quality listed contest, the three main contenders are Donjuan Triumphant , Laugh A Minute & Librisa Breeze .

DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT : 5-Y-0 Bay Horse ,winning 5 out 23 on turf .Goes particarly well on soft ground .Been running consistently this season in group company,without winning ,including finishing excellent third in G1 Champions Sprint at Ascot three weeks ago .Obvious claims in this much easier race.

LAUGH A MINUTE :3-Y-0 Bay Gelding , winning 2 out 9 .Shown improved form since being gelded ,winning decent conditions race over C&D at Doncaster in August .Also finished creditable second in 6f G3 Prix de Meautry Barriere at Deauville in August .Should go well dropping down to listed company .

LIBRISA BREEZE : 6-Y-0 Bay Gelding , winning 3 out 17 on turf .Very useful sprinter on his day ,including winning champions sprint at Ascot in 2017.Has looked very disappointing in 2018 ,showing very little in five starts this season .Takes big drop in class ,though will need big improvement on this seasons form .

VERDICT : DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT stands out on his third in group one Champions Sprint at Ascot last time .Will be suited by this big drop in class.Handles good ground ,though will relish any overnight rain .Odds around 4-1 look fair value .

Laugh A Minute looks the main danger ,after finishing good second in group three company in France last time .Looks open to further improvement ,though wouldn't want too much rain,having been withdrawn at Ascot on soft ground last month  .
(WINNER SP 2-1 PROFIT +£206.40)