Tuesday, July 28, 2020

2K to 10K Betting Challenge (Bet No 72) Tue 28th July

2K to 10K betting challenge finally returns after four month absence.In these strange times the flat turf season is starting to get back to somthing like normal .

I decided to sit out the early weeks of the season, with too much guess work with horses fitness and trainer form.

The betting bankroll stands at £2599 (+£599) stakes are at (£104) (£2599) divided by 25 = £104 stake .

On Tuesday we have the start of the five day Glorious Goodwood meeting .Going concentrate on the main supporting race the group two Lennox stakes at 2.45.

13 Runners declared for 7F Lennox stakes (G2 ) for 3yo+ on good gound .

Space Blues is top rated on official BHA figures on (115) landed 7f group three contest at Longchamp last month in good style .Had some useful form last season ,including finishing placed in two G1 contests in France .Solid claims in this G2 contest .

Dukes of Hazzard unbeaten at Goodwood 3 out 3, landing the G2 Celebration mile at Goodwood last August ,returned to form last time at Ascot finishing creditable third behind the useful Mohaather in G2 Summer mile at Ascot .Best form over mile ,though will be suited reurning to Goodwood .

Sir Dancealot  winner of race last two years ,though not been in top form so far this season. 6f was always going to be too sharp in July Cup at Newmarket last time.Normally takes couple races to hit peak form. The return to 7f at Goodwood  should suit better.

Safe Voyage very consistent sort ,winning three times last season,including winning G3 John Of Gaunt stakes at Haydock . Been in good form this season ,winning listed race at Epsom last time in good style .Never won in G2 company ,though should be thereabouts  .

VERDICT : Four time G2 winner SIR DANCEALOT can land the race for third year in row .Will need to bounce back to form ,though the return to 7 furlongs at Goodwood look sure to suit .Has excellent strike rate over the trip (8 out 21) .Odds around 6-1 mark look very fair e-way value .

Space Blues rates the main danger, has returned in top form, landing both starts this season .Also ran with credit in G1 company last season .Should go close, though odds around 5-2 look short enough in competitive race .


(5TH SP 6-1 LOSS £104.00 )

Saturday, March 28, 2020

Best Horse Race Betting Strategies

Wagering on horse racing can be as simple or complex as the bettor desires. Some are happy with just names and odds, and others take into account jockeys, trainers, track conditions, and much more. 

However, the most successful bettors often use racing strategies that have been tried and tested, such as the layering horse strategy and the dutching system. Some of them are simple and self-explanatory, while others involve math and calculations. 

After learning the different methods, use a TVG promo code to try them out. 

Recent Winners Betting Strategy 

This self-explanatory strategy is perhaps the most simple out of all of them. After choosing a race to wager on, the bettor will look at the race form of the horses to see if any of them have scored a recent victory. 

If they did indeed win an event recently, they will be more likely to perform well. Most of the information required for this strategy can be found relatively easy, making it a simple process. The downside is that a recent winner often has lower odds, making it a safe bet. 

Horse and Jockey Strategy 

Another simple method is the horse and jockey strategy. In this system, the bettor finds a horse that finished second in its previous race. The horse has to have had the same jockey in the previous race as the current one. 

However, the jockey had to be riding the horse for the first time in the previous race. The idea behind this method is that the jockey will become better adapted to the horse by the second race, which could lead to a better performance. 

Back the Beaten Favorite System 

Another type of betting strategy is the back the beaten favorite system. This method relies on the public’s doubt after a highly regarded horse is beaten in a race. In the following race, betting often goes against the horse, causing the runner’s odds to increase. 

Just because a top-tier horse loses a race does not mean it will underperform in the next. Because of this, some bettors will choose to wager on a horse that is coming off a loss, hoping that it was just a one-off. Since the horse will have better odds than normal, this strategy can be used for the long-term. There is almost always a profit over time. 

The Statistical Lay 

The statistical lay, or the laying horse strategy, is another popular method used by bettors. In this complex horse racing betting system, a bettor is essentially wagering against a runner.

In general, a lay bet is when the bettor acts as the bookmaker and bets against an outcome rather than on one. Instead of betting on the favorite to win the race, any other horse is bet on.

This system first requires a race that has ten or more runners. Once a race is found, a bettor will identify the three favorites and study their odds. 

Out of the top three favorites, the bettor then needs to pick out runners that have odds between 3.0 (2/1) and 5.8 (4.8/1). The bettor will lay against the one with the lowest odds, and statistics show that this should realize a winner about 80% of the time. 

This method is based on the statistics showing that the top three favorites, when their odds are within the specified range, only win about 17% of the time. By placing a lay bet, or betting that the horse won’t win, the wager should result in a profit 83% of the time. 

To stay on the safe side, this method should mostly be used on Group 1 Grade 1 races. In these events, there are normally more in-depth records of the runner, and this allows for a weak favorite to be more easily identified. Top tier races also see more experienced bettors wagering on the favorite, which brings the prices down. 

The Dutching System 

The last method is the dutching system, and it is considered one of the best and most tested out of all the horse racing betting strategies. The dutching system requires some math and calculations. 

The main benefit of this strategy is that when the bettor wagers on a selection of horses, the same amount of money should be returned each time, regardless of the overall winner. 

The first step is to choose a race that has a high number of runners, usually ten or more. The bettor will then identify two of the top three ranked horses with generous odds. This is when the calculations come in. 

The bettor will work out the implied probability of the horses winning the race (e.g., a runner with 2/1 odds has a 33.33% chance of winning). Then, the bettor has to determine the stake necessary for each bet to guarantee a set profit. The set profit is the same regardless of the outcome. 

An example: 

Implied probabilities from the odds: 

  • Implied probability of a 11/1 horse = (1 / (11/1 + 1)) * 100 = 8.33% 
  • Implied probability of a 3/1 horse = (1/ (3/1 + 1)) * 100 = 25% 

Stakes Required: 

  • How much to stake on the 11/1 horse = (8.33 / (25 + 8.33)) * £10 = £2.50 
  • How much to stake on the 3/1 horse = (25 / (25 + 8.33)) * £10 = £7.50 
According to this formula, the bet should return £30, regardless of the winning horse. 

There are various online calculators that are capable of doing the calculations, making it quicker and easier for the bettor. 

There are many different methods to choose from when wagering on a horse race. Some systems are simple and others complex, but many of them add a new layer to horse race betting. While betting systems do not work 100% of the time, a bettor can greatly improve returns by following one or more.

Friday, March 06, 2020

2K to 10K Betting Challenge (Bet No 71) Sat 7th Mar

2K to 10K Betting Challenge returns on Saturday at Meydan .The betting bankroll stands at £2707 (+£707.00) £2707 divided by 25  = £108.00 Stake .

Very slow start to the year with only two bets since January,though there has been very few betting opportunities on All Weather this winter,field sizes have been major problem in better races on All Weather,especially in class three and upwards.

Most these races having six or less runners,which makes it difficult to find any real value .Hopefully there will be few more betting opportunities in March ,before the start of the flat turf season in three weeks time.

Moving on to Saturday we have decent card at Meydan, with there Super Saturday meeting ,featuring five group races ,including two group ones .Going concentrate on one the main supporting races the Burj Nahaar at 1.45 .

12 runners declared for 1 mile G3 Burj Nahaar contest   .This looks good quality group three contest on the dirt.The three main contenders look to be Secret Ambition ,Kimbear & Salute The Sodier .

SECRET AMBITION : 7-Y-0 Bay entire,winning 5 out 20 at Meydan .Consistent sort. Been in fair form at this years Meydan Carnival ,finishing second on both starts ,including finishing short head second in G2 Al Maktoun Challenge in January.Also finished fair second in G3 Firebreak stakes last time,though no match for 7L winner Capezzano .Should go well in this easier looking G3 contest .

KIMBEAR : 6-Y-0 Bay entire,winning 3 out 12 at Meydan.Useful sort on his day,including winning this race in 2018.Made winning reappearance at Meydan in G2 Al Maktoun round one Challenge in January,beating Secret Ambition in close finish.No show behind Benbatl last time ,though looked unsuited by longer trip .Solid claims returning to this lower grade over more suitable mile trip .

SALUTE THE SOLDIER : 5-Y-0 Bay gelding ,winning 5 out 16 ,formerly trained by Clive Cox winning two valuable 7f handicaps last season at Goodwood & Ascot .Made winning reapperance for new trainer Fawzi Abdulla Nass,winning 1 mile handicap on turf ,off mark 103 .Also finished fair 1L fourth of 7 last time in G2 Zabeel Mile .Switches to dirt for first time ,though did have winning form on polytrack as three-year-old .Interesting contender .

VERDICT : 2018 winner KIMBEAR can return to winning ways ,after disappointing over longer trip at Meydan last time .All three vicories at Meydan have come over this C&D ,including when edging out Secret Ambition in group two over C&D in January .Odds around 4-1 look very fair value .
£54.00 EACH-WAY @ 4-1 SKYBET.
(FIFTH SP 10-3 LOSS £108.00 )

Wednesday, February 05, 2020

2K to 10K Betting Challenge (Bet No 70 ) Thu 6th Feb

2K to 10K Challenge continues on Thursday at Chelmsford .

The betting bankroll stands at £2819 after bit slow start to the year .Stakes drop down to £112.00 . £2819 divided by 25 =£112.00 .

Moving on to Thursday we have interesting class 3 sprint handicap on poly track at Chelmsford .

8 runners declared for the New Tote Handicap  .This looks competitive 0-95 handicap at 2.40 .The three main contenders look to be Mohareb,Rock On Baileys & Storm Over .

MOHAREB : 4-Y-0 Bay Gelding,winning 3 out 7 on All Weather.Shown consistent form this winter,winning three times,including over C&D at Chelmsford in October.Finished close third at Lingfield last time over 7f in class two company .Will need career best of mark 92 ,though can't be ruled out returning to this shorter trip .

ROCK ON BAILEYS : 5-Y-0 Chestnut Mare ,winning 7 out 18 on All Weather ,including winning twice over C&D at Chelmsford .Returned to form in December ,winning  small fillies conditions race at Lingfield.Also finished creditable second at Wolverhampton last time in class two company .Looks fairly treated off mark 91 .Interesting contender returning to handicap company .

STORM OVER : 6-Y-0 Bay Gelding ,winning 3 out 8 on All Weather .Goes well here at Chelmsford winning 2 from 4 at the track ,including winning in good style over C&D last month .Races off 4lb higher mark ,though still looks fairly handicapped of 87 ,having won off mark 89 at Chelmsford back in 2018 .Solid claims 

VERDICT : STORM OVER should go well after winning with bit in hand over C&D at Chelmsford three weeks ago.Has to defy 4lb higher mark,though has shown all his best form at the track,including winning in class two company off 2lb higher mark .Odds around 4-1 look fair value .
£56.00 EACH-WAY @ 4-1 BET365* 
(UNPLACED SP 10-3 LOSS £112.00)

Thursday, January 16, 2020

2K to 10K Betting Challenge ( Bet No 69 ) Thu 16th Jan

2K to 10K Betting Challenge returns on Thursday at the Dubai Carnival . 

The betting bankroll stands at £2937 (+£937) as we start the third and final season of the challenge .Stakes start at £118.00 with the bankroll £2937 divided into 25 units .

Moving on to Thursday ,we have decent card from Meydan,with the main interest the 10f Listed handicap at 3.40 .

11 runners declared for Zaabel Turf on ground described as good . This looks top quality listed handicap with the three main contenders Dream Castle,Desert Fire & Loxley .

DREAM CASTLE : 6-Y-0 Bay Gelding ,winning 4 out 18 .Had some useful form at Meydan Carnival last season winning three group races ,including winning 9F (G1) Jebel Hatta in March .Has been disappointing in five runs since in G1/G2 company ,including two runs in Australia .Will be suited by this big drop in class ,though will need to bounce back.

DESERT FIRE : 5-Y-0 Bay Entire ,winning 4 out 11 .Consistent sort ,ran with credit at Meydan last season ,including winning 8f turf handicap off mark 95 .Returned to winning form on Polytrack at Chelmsford in September ,winning 10f handicap off mark 102 .Takes step up in class ,though open to improvement returning to Meydan .

LOXLEY : 5-Y-0 Bay Gelding ,winning 4 out 13 ,including winning 12f (G2) at Deauville in 2018 .Not won since,though finished second on last three starts in listed company ,including just getting touched off in fair contest at Kempton last time .The return to this shorter trip shouldn't be problem, having won twice over distance back in 2018 .Interesting contender back on the turf .

VERDICT : Dream Castle is clearly the one to beat on last seasons group winning form at Meydan ,though has been bitterly disappointing since ,including only beaten one rival in last two starts in Australia .Will find this company lot easier,though has too many question marks for me .
LOXLEY has been knocking on the door in listed company,including finishing close second to 107 rated Pablo Escobarr last time on polytrack at Kempton ,that was fair effort giving decent rival 4lb .Looks fairly treated off mark 107 in this listed handicap .Odds around 9-2 look fair e-w value .
(UNPLACED SP 3-1 LOSS £118.00 )