Friday, February 02, 2024

Dubai Carnival (Week Nine ) Friday Selections ( Fri 2nd February 2024)

Week Nine of the Dubai Carnival ,intresting card from Meydan with the feature race the G3 Dubai Millenium stakes over 10 furlongs on the turf,though going concentrate on couple interesting three-year-old condition races on the turf .


The unbeaten Godolphin filly Cinderella's Dream has been put in odds on favourite after winning twice last season,including winning Novice Stakes at Thirsk in September .However that form looks nothing special ,beating the 73 rated maiden Fayzaah by lengh, giving that rival 6lb .Has been given official rating 83,so will need more improvement to land this stronger race ,though as normal bookmakers are giving nothing away on these Charlie Appleby/ William Buick runners .Open to plenty improvement after two starts ,though makes no appeal at 10-11 .

The top rated in the race GEOLOGIST looks interesting after winning twice last season ,including winning listed race in Germany in September . Made promising reappearance in Jumeriah Guineas trial ,finishing staying on fifth of 16 behind Legend Of Time .That was fair effort for her first run of the season, against some promising colts .Should go well back against fillies only race .Odds 8-1 or bigger are solid each-way value .

Of the other runners the Charlie Appleby second string Beautiful Love has to be respected after finishing fourth in 1 mile listed race at Newmarket on heavy ground in November .Had previously won mile Novice Stakes at Newmarket .Has official rating 89, that puts her right in the mix .

1) GEOLOGIST (2) CINDERELLA'S DREAM (3) BEAUTIFUL LOVE

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JUMEIRAH GUINEAS PRESENTED BY LINCOLN NAUTILUS (CONDITIONS RACE) (TURF) (3yo) Winner £64,103 8 runners 1m Good RTV

No surprise to see the Charlie Appleby trained Legend Of Time  favourite after winning the Jumeirah Guineas trial here last month , had previously finished fifth of 12 in G3 Tattersals Stakes at Newmarket last season , the one to beat on form ,though top price 1-2 makes little appeal .

At the prices the French colt SHAMROCK GLITTER looks the each-way value against the odds on favourite , finished promising second just length behind Legend Of Time on seasonal reappearance .Will be suited returning to this mile trip ,having previously won mile conditions race at Chantilly in October .Has bit to find with favourite , though looks solid each-way option in this 8 runner contest .Odds 4-1 or bigger are fair value .

Of the others the Charlie Appleby second string Musical Act can’t be ruled out after winning twice on poly track  at Kempton , including winning mile Novice stakes in November. Unraced on turf,though should be thereabouts if handling the surface .

1) SHAMROCK GLITTER (2) LEGEND OF TIME (3) MUSICAL ACT

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(RECOMMENDED BETS MEYDAN FRIDAY 2ND FEB )

GEOLOGIST 2.40 JUMEIRAH FILLIES CLASSIC      

1PT EACH-WAY @ 10-1 BET365 

(FOURTH SP 10-1 LOSS £200/2.00 PTS

SHAMROCK GLITTER 5.35 JUMEIRAH GUINEAS 

1PT EACH-WAY @ 9-2 BET365

(THIRD SP 9-2 LOSS £10.00/0.0.10 PTS

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1/4PT EACH-WAY DOUBLE @59.5-1 (10-1 & 9-2 ) 

FOURTH & THIRD (LOSS £50.00/0.50 PTS)                                                          

Thursday, January 25, 2024

Dubai Carnival (Week Eight )Fashion Friday Selections (Fri 26th January 2024)

Week Eight of Dubai Carnival (Fashion Friday) with cracking card from Meydan featuring seven group races , including the two feature races the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge on dirt over 9F & G1 Jebel Hatta on turf over 9F ,though Going concentrate on two the main supporting races the  Al Fahidi Fort & UAE 2000 Guineas

Al Fahidi Fort presented by Longines (Group 2) (Turf) (3yo+) Winner £108,974 12 runners 7f Good 
 
race conditions  £181,624 guaranteed For  southern hemisphere 3yo+ and northern hemisphere 4yo+ Penalty value  1st  £108,974.36 2nd  £36,324.79 3rd  £18,162.39 4th  £9,081.20 5th  £5,448.72 6th  £3,632.48
 
Decent looking field for the G2 Al Fahidi Fort  over 7 furlongs on the turf .

The ultra consistent 7-Y-0 gelding DANYAH should go well after making promising reappearance at Meydan last month, that looked decent effort under 8lb G1 penalty, just getting touched off in Buisness Bay Challenge listed race over C&D . Had some useful form last season ,including winning the G1 Al Quoz Sprint on World Cup night .Has to concede 4lb in this G2 contest,though Should improve for that first run of the season .Odds 5-1 or bigger look solid e-way value  .

Mysterious Night bounced back to form last time ,bolting up over C&D in 7f handicap at Meydan 7 days ago in good time, had previously shown some useful form back in 2022 ,winning group races in France & Canada. though odds around 7-4 look way too short, having already finished behind Vafortino & Danyah in Buisness Bay Stakes .

The improving 6-Y-0 Vafortino has to be respected after beating Danyah in close finish at Meydan last time , had previously won 7f listed race at Redcar in October, will need further improvement in this group two contest,though looks interesting runner .
 
VERDICT : (1) DANYAH  (2) VAFORTINO (3) MYSTERIOUS NIGHT
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UAE 2000 Guineas presented by Longines (Group 3) (Dirt) (3yo) Winner £89,744 8 runners 1m Fast 
 
race conditions  £149,573 guaranteed For  3yo Weight for age  3yo from 4yo 20lb Penalty value  1st  £89,743.59 2nd  £29,914.53 3rd  £14,957.26 4th  £7,478.63 5th  £4,487.18 6th  £2,991.45 
 
The Argentinian colt Oasis Boy comes out top on official ratings on (109) , having won G2 contest at  HIPODROMO ARGENTINO DE PALERMO back in July. not easy to weigh that form up, though was impressive 4L winner of the race . Has to be respected on his first start in Dubai for new connections,however may just need this race ,having not ran for 6 months .
 
His Stablemate QUARTIER looks interesting runner, after finishing promising second in UAE 2000 Guineas trial at Meydan earlier this month,coming from well off the pace to finish never nearer second to the unbeaten colt Ma Yetal . That form looks solid with the third horse Military Artist winning next time in mile conditions race .Quartier had previously won 4 times in Uruguay from 6 starts.The step up to mile should suit ,having put in all his best work in closing stages in that 7f Guineas Trial .Odds 5-1 or bigger look solid each-way value .
 
Killer Collect has to be respected, after bolting up by 7L over C/D in 1 mile conditions race at Meydan last time,went off unconsidered 20-1 shot that day, with the 4-6 fav pulling up not easy to assess the form ,though looks open to plenty more improvement after just two starts.however odds around 2-1 look poor value .
 
VERDICT :  (1) QUARTIER (2) KILLER COLLECT (3) OASIS BOY
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MEYDAN FRIDAY 26TH JANUARY RECOMMENDED BETS 
 
DANYAH 2.40  AL FAHIDI FORT  
1PT EACH-WAY @ 11-2 BET365
(THIRD SP 8-1 ) PROFIT £10.00/0.10PTS)

QUARTIER 5.35 UAE 2000 GUINEAS 
1PT EACH-WAY @ 11-2 SKYBET.PADDY POWER .BETVICTOR
(THIRD SP 7-2 ) PROFIT £10.00/0.10PTS)

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1/4PT EACH-WAY DOUBLE @ 38-1 ( 11-2 & 5-1 BET365 )
THIRD & THIRD ) PROFIT (£55.00/0.55PTS)

Friday, January 05, 2024

Dubai Racing Carnival (Week Five) Selections (Fri 5th Jan 2023 )

The Dubai Carnival kicks into gear on week five ,with the two feature races the 6f Dubawi Stakes G3 (Dirt ) & Zabeel Mile G2 (Turf )

Dubawi Stakes (Group 3) (Dirt) (3yo+) Winner £94,808 13 runners 6f Fast RTV
 
race conditions  £158,014 guaranteed For  southern hemisphere 3yo; southern hemisphere & northern hemisphere 4yo+ Penalty value  1st  £94,808.13 2nd  £31,602.71 3rd  £15,801.35 4th  £7,900.68 5th  £4,740.41 6th  £3,160.27 
 
13 runners declared for 6f Dubawi Stakes on the dirt .This looks very competitive dirt sprint .
 
Sound Money has been put in clear favourite at around 13-8 on his first start for Doug Watson . Had some decent form for Chad Brown in America back in 2022 ,including finishing 2nd in grade two company at Belmont Park . Made winning reappearance over C/D at last years carnival in G3 company for B.Seemar ,though not been seen since finishing disappointing 9th in G1 Golden Shaheen on World Cup night .Will be suited returning returning to this lower grade , though looks way too short in the market, on his first start for 286 days .
 
The 7-Y-0 gelding EASTERN WORLD  looks the each-way value,after returning to winning form in November landing fair looking 6f conditions race at Sharjah , beating the 112 rated Tuz by lengh . Had some decent form at carnival back in 2022 , including winning the G3 Mahab Al Shimaal over C&D ..Looks well drawn in stall two for horse that normally sits close to the pace .Odds around 13-2 look solid each-way value with bookmakers paying 4 places .
 
Of the others the consistent  Colour Up looks the most interesting , after winning 6f Listed race over C/D at Meydan in good style in December , Has bit to find with Sound Money on last seasons Mahab Al Shimaal form , though has decent strike rate at Meydan (3 out 6) With William Buick looking interesting jockey booking  Each-way claims .

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Zabeel Mile (Group 2) (Turf) (3yo+) Winner £115,124 13 runners 1m Good RTV
 
race conditions  £191,874 guaranteed For  southern hemisphere 3yo; southern hemisphere & northern hemisphere 4yo+ Penalty value  1st  £115,124.15 2nd  £38,374.72 3rd  £19,187.36 4th  £9,593.68 5th  £5,756.21 6th  £3,837.47 
 
The feature race on the card the G2 Zabeel mile , though not the strongest looking G2 contest .2022 winner REAL WORLD was disappointing here two weeks ago , when only finishing fifth of 11 in G2 Al Rashidya ,though still looks the one to beat on form ,including finishing creditable fourth in G2 Bahrain trophy in November .The drop back to mile should suit,having shown all his best form over the trip when chasing home Baaeed in Lockinge Stakes & Queen Anne Stakes .Odds around 5-2  look fair value .

San Donato finished good second in listed company at Abu Dhabi last month , though normally comes up short in group company (0 out 7 ), also been done no favours by the draw in stall 13 , looks very short in market ,makes little appeal at around 5-2 .

Of the others Marbaan looks interesting runner on first start for Michael Costa , had some decent form as two-year-old for Charlie Fellowes , including winning G2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood , not so good last season , though did finish second in listed company. Unproven over mile , though could go well if staying this longer trip .
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MEYDAN 5TH JANUARY 2023 RECOMMENDED BETS 
 
EASTERN WORLD 4.25 DUBAWI STAKES
0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @ 13-2 BET365.PADDY POWER (1/5 ODDS 1-2-3-4)  
(UNPLACED SP 11-2 LOSS 1.00 PT)
 
REAL WORLD 5.00 ZABEEL MILE  
1PT WIN @ 5-2 PADDY POWER ,BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK 
 (UNPLACED SP EVENS LOSS 1.00 PT)
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1/4 PT EACH-WAY DOUBLE @ 25.25-1 PADDY POWER (13-2 & 5-2)
(UPLACED & UNPLACED LOSS 0.50 PTS)
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TOTAL LOSS £250/2.50 PTS 
 

Tuesday, January 02, 2024

Dubai Racing Carnival Preview 2023/24

The restructured Dubai Racing Carnival is a reward for the fast-improving quality of local horses, while Dubai’s world-class facilities are perfect for international runners to use as a base for the flourishing racing in the region. A good example of the benefits of wintering in the Dubai sun is Mawj. The Saeed Bin Suroor-trained filly was two from two at Meydan Racecourse before returning to the UK and winning the prestigious Group 1 1000 Guineas at Newmarket.

The Dubai Racing Carnival spans the entire season at Meydan, from November to March, giving international trainers, jockeys and horses the chance to compete in Dubai for much longer than was previously the case.

Purses for the Dubai Racing Carnival 2023-2024 are up by AED11 million – a 27% increase from the total for the 2022-23 season. There will be three valuable feature race nights; starting in December (AED4.7m), then January (AED10m), and Super Saturday in March (AED10m); which brings the total purses for the three meetings to AED24.7m. The minimum prize money per non-stakes races is AED165,000; the same as pre-pandemic levels. The flagship Dubai World Cup night brings the curtain down on the Dubai season and retains its enormous pool of prize money of US$30.5 million (AED112 million).

The Dubai Racing Carnival encompasses 14 meetings, excluding Dubai World Cup day, with each meeting staging seven to nine races. Racing takes place on Fridays, except for Super Saturday and the Dubai World Cup, which are on Saturdays.

 (SELECTIONS WILL BE POSTED EVERY FRIDAY FROM FRI JAN 5TH 2024)

Friday, October 20, 2023

British Champions Day Preview (Sat 21st Oct 2023 )

British Champions Day is a thoroughbred horse race meeting held at Ascot Racecourse in October each year since 2011, which acts as the end of season highlight fixture of British flat racing. It is the culmination of the British Champions Series and features the finals of the five divisions of the series, together with a valuable one-mile handicap race.[1] It is the richest day in British racing, with more than £4 million in prize money across the six races .

Races

British Champions Long Distance CupGroup 22m3yo +£300,000
British Champions Sprint StakesGroup 16f3yo +£600,000
British Champions Fillies' and Mares' StakesGroup 11m 4f3yo + FM£550,000
Queen Elizabeth II StakesGroup 11m3yo +£1,100,000
Champion StakesGroup 11m 2f3yo +£1,300,000
Balmoral HandicapHandicap1m3yo +£200,000

Top quality action on British Champions Day at Ascot with four group one races & group two

Going concentrate on three races Fillies & Mares stakes ,Queen Elizabeth 11 stakes &  feature race the £1.3 million Champion stakes .Plenty of rain about over the last few days ,with ground conditions likely to be testing .

Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+) Winner £301,272 14 runners 1m3f211y Soft ITV (STALLS Inside)
 
race conditions  £531,250 guaranteed For  3yo+ fillies & mares Weights  3yo 9st 1lb; 4yo+ 9st 7lb NOTE: horses will be eligible to run in this race provided that they have a current BHA Handicap Rating of 80 or higher at midday of the confirmation stage. Horses which do not qualify for a rating may also be eligible providing the BHA Handicapper is satisfied that the horse's racecourse performances up to and including the day before confirmation merit a provisional assessment of 80 or higher. Horses which have not run will not be eligible. Weight for age  3yo from 4yo+ 6lb pay £2,185 Penalty value  1st  £301,271.87 2nd  £114,218.74 3rd  £57,162.50 4th  £28,475.00 5th  £14,290.63 6th  £7,171.88
 

14 runners declared for fillies & mares over 1M 4F on ground described as soft .The John & Thady Gosden trained 5-Y-0 mare Free Wind has been put in favourite at 7-2 .No show in Arc last time at ParisLongchamp ,though did finish good second in G1 Yorkshire Oaks in August just getting touched off by Warm Heart ,obvious claims on that York form ,though ground conditions have to be concern, having ran poorly in Lily Langtry stakes at Goodwood in testing conditions .

The three-year-old Galileo filly JACKIE OH should go well for Aidan O Brien & Ryan Moore ,has looked improving filly recently ,including finishing creditable second in G1 Prix de L 'Opera ,behind Blue Rose Cen ,that looked decent effort on ground that was pleny quick enough .Goes well on testing conditions (121 ) on soft or heavy .Also Looks open to further improvement over this longer trip being out Galileo . Odds around 4-1 look solid each-way value .

Of the others the consistent Bluestocking looks the most interesting ,having finished good second in Irish Oaks under similar conditions in July .Not the easiest horse to win with, having been second 3 times this season , though has solid place claims at around 10-1 .
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VERDICT : (1) JACKIE OH (2) BLUESTOCKING (3) FREE WIND 
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Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) (British Champions Mile) (Class 1) (3yo+) Winner £655,709 11 runners 1m Soft ITV (STALLS Far side)
 
 
race conditions  £1,156,250 guaranteed For  3yo+ Weights  3yo colts & geldings 9st 3lb; fillies 9st; 4yo+ colts & geldings 9st 6lb; fillies 9st 3lb NOTE: horses will be eligible to run in this race provided that they have a current BHA Handicap Rating of 80 or higher at midday of the confirmation stage. Horses which do not qualify for a rating may also be eligible providing the BHA Handicapper is satisfied that the horse's racecourse performances up to and including the day before confirmation merit a provisional assessment of 80 or higher. Horses which have not run will not be eligible. Weight for age  3yo from 4yo 3lb pay £4,800 Penalty value  1st  £655,709.37 2nd  £248,593.74 3rd  £124,412.50 4th  £61,975.00 5th  £31,103.13 6th  £15,609.38 
 
This looks high quality G1 contest over mile with 11 runners declared .The Aidan O Brien 3 year old colt Paddington  should go well ,having already landed four group ones this season ,including winning the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood in August on testing ground .Slightly disappointing when beaten in Juddmonte International at 4-6 ,though looked unsuited by fast ground conditions . Will be suited returning to mile on testing ground ,has to be respected, though odds around 13-8 look very short in probably the best mile contest in Europe this season .

At the prices the four year old Frankel filly NASHWA looks the each-way value at around 9-2 .Looked little unlucky in Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown ,when fast finishing third to Auguste Rodin ,was given lot to do in that race, only beaten half lengh .Would gone very close with better judged ride from Hollie Doyle .The return to mile on testing ground should suit ,was impressive 5L winner of the G1 Falmouth over the trip at Newmarket in July .Solid each-way claims .

Of the others the three-year-old filly Tahiyra has to be respected ,having won 5 out 6 ,her only deafeat coming in 1000 Guineas at Newmarket in May , looks open to further improvement ,though strictly on form has bit too find with both Paddington & Nashwa .
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VERDICT : (1) NASHWA (2) PADDINGTON (3) TAHIYRA
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Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo+) Winner £737,230 9 runners 1m1f212y Soft ITV (STALLS Inside)
 
race conditions  £1,300,000 guaranteed For  3yo+ Weights  3yo colts & geldings 9st 3lb; fillies 9st; 4yo+ colts & geldings 9st 7lb; fillies 9st 4lb NOTE: horses will be eligible to run in this race provided that they have a current BHA Handicap Rating of 80 or higher at midday of the confirmation stage. Horses which do not qualify for a rating may also be eligible providing the BHA Handicapper is satisfied that the horse's racecourse performances up to and including the day before confirmation merit a provisional assessment of 80 or higher. Horses which have not run will not be eligible. Weight for age  3yo from 4yo+ 4lb pay £5,675 Penalty value  1st  £737,230.00 2nd  £279,500.00 3rd  £139,880.00 4th  £69,680.00 5th  £34,970.00 6th  £17,550.00 
 
The days feature race the £1.3 million Champion Stakes  with nine runners declared .The French 3 year old gelding Horizon Dore has been put in 7-2 favourite, after winning his last four starts , including winning the G2 Prix Dollar last time in good style ,though that form is nothing special beating Jack Darcy ,who has been well beaten since . Should handle these testing conditions having won debut on heavy ground ,though not for me at at the prices in this much stronger race .
 
Last years winner BAY BRIDGE should go well for Sir Michael Stoute,was game winner of this race last year when turning over the unbeaten 1-4 shot Baaeed, far from disgraced when finishing 6th of 15 in ARC last time at ParisLongchamp on ground that was too quick .Will be suited returning to 10 furlongs on soft ground .Odds around 9-2 look solid each-way value .
 
Of the others Epsom Derby runner up King Of Steel ,looks possible danger after finishing close fourth in Irish Champion stakes at Leopardstown last time .Goes well here at Ascot ,including winning the King Edward V11 stakes and finishing creditable third in King George V1 stakes .
 
Mostahdaf is 7lb clear on official BHA ratings ,having won 3 out 4 this season ,including winning the Prince Of Wales Stakes over C&D at Royal Ascot in June ,has won on soft ground earlier in his career though finished last of 20 in     last yeard ARC on heavy ground  all his best form has been on good or faster ground.Had been doubtful runner earlier in the week and wouldn't want anymore rain .
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VERDICT : (1) BAY BRIDGE (2) KING OF STEEL (3) HORIZON DORE 
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ASCOT BRITISH CHAMPIONS DAY RECOMMENDED BETS  
 
JACKIE OH 2.25 ASCOT FILLIES & MARES 
0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @ 4-1 WILLIAM HILLS .CORALS & LADBROKES 
(THIRD SP 3-1 LOSS £10.00/0.10 PTS)
 
NASHWA 3.05  ASCOT QUEEN ELIZABETH 11 STAKES
0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @ 9-2 PADDY POWER & BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK 
(UNPLACED SP 5-1 LOSS £100.00/1.00 PTS)

BAY BRIDGE 3.45 ASCOT CHAMPION STAKES 
0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @ 5-1 BET365 .WILLIAM HILLS 
(UNPLACED SP 10-3 LOSS £100.00 /1.00 PTS )
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0.25 PTS EACH-WAY TREBLE @ 149-1 WILLIAM HILLS (4-1) (4-1) (5-1)
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(3RD ) (UNPL) (UNPL) LOSS £50.00 /0.50 PTS 
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TOTAL LOSS : £260.00 /2.60 PTS