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Thursday, January 15, 2015

The Blog Returns for 6th year with fresh approach for 2015

Looking back at 2014 ,not the most successful year for the blog, with just £546.00 /5.46 pts profit on the year (13 winners from 51 bets) ROI +11.11% 

Having started the year well ,things tailed off badly in second half of the year, though having to deal with sudden family bereavement in August didn't help matters,probably a mistake continuing the blog selections ,when your mind is not focused on horse racing .

On positive note this was the fifth consecutive winning year for the blog, with total profits £8814 / 88.14 points  bets since the blog started in February 2010 .Hopefully 2015 will be much better year on all fronts .

In the past I have focused on non handicap flat races for the blog selections  ,though finding value selections has got more and more difficult over last two seasons ,with small fields being major problem for each-way bets in non handicap races, especially on the All Weather .

From 2015 I will be making changes to the blog, and concentrating mainly on handicap races and pattern races, where I hold mathematical edge,the same principal will apply, finding value each-way bets in uncompetitive races . 

For blogs first bet in 2015, we go to Lingfield for interesting looking 2 mile handicap on the poly track at 4.00 .

4.00 LINGFIELD 2 MILE 0-65 CLASS 6 HANDICAP :
9 runners declared for 2 mile 0-65 handicap at Lingfield ,not the most competitive staying handicap the three main contenders are Shadipour,Mighty Mambo & Dukes Den .

SHADARPOUR :Won three times over hurdles ,lightly raced on the All Weather though has put in two decent efforts ,including finishing short head second  in this race last year .Finished fair third in 2 mile 0-75 handicap at Kempton in November behind Strawberry Martini .Should go well off 3LB higher mark.Will also be suited dropping down too class 6 company .

MIGHTY MAMBO : Consistent sort on All Weather, with one win and 7 places from 10 starts ,won 2 mile handicap at Kempton  off mark 55 ,last February.Also finished fair second last time in 2 mile handicap at Kempton, off mark 60 .Should be thereabouts off same mark.

DUKES DEN : Won 2 mile handicap at Wolverhampton in good style back in December off mark 56 , though finished disappointing sixth, off 6LB higher mark when favourite for 2 mile handicap over C&D last time at Lingfield .Needs too bounce back in first time blinkers .


VERDICT : SHADARPOUR is better known as fair handicap hurdler ,though looks more than capable of winning 0-65 handicap on polytrack .Finished good second over C/D in this race last year and also ran creditable third in better race at Kempton in November .Can land this weak looking 2 mile handicap.Odds around 4-1 look very fair .

Mighty Mambo looks the main danger, has been knocking on the door in 2 mile handicaps  ,however is not easy horse too win with .1 out 10  on All Weather ,though still has solid each-way chance .

Of the others Takeitfromalady is surprising 7-2 favourite here,having not won for over two years and yet to win on All Weather in 11 starts ,also far from certain to stay this 2 mile trip.


SHADARPOUR 4.00 LINGFIELD 
£50.00 EACH-WAY @ 4-1 BET365* 
(UNPLACED SP 7-2 LOSS £100.00)

5 comments:

  1. Thanks Kevin ,Yeah I'm Looking forward to 2015 ,hopefully it will good year for the blog .All the Best .

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  2. All the best, Jerry. Looking forward to a good year. Always here if we can be of help.

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  3. Thanks Jason ,all the best for 2015

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  4. Hi Jerry

    Good Luck with your new approach, I hope you have a great year.

    Mark

    ReplyDelete