Saturday, December 11, 2021

Hong Kong International Races (Sha Tin) (Sun 12th Dec) Three Recommended Bets

Longines Hong Kong Vase (Group 1) (3yo+) (Course A) (Turf) (3yo+) Winner £1,076,487 8 runners 1m4f Good SKY

race conditions  £1,888,574 guaranteed For  3yo+ Penalty value  1st  £1,076,487.25 2nd  £415,486.31 3rd  £188,857.41 4th  £107,648.73 5th  £62,322.95 6th  £37,771.48 
 
8 runners go to post for the Hong Kong Vase,this looks decent quality group one contest ,featuring the last two winners of the race .I
 
International Ratings : Pyledriver (121) Glory Vase (120) Columbus County (115) 
 
The 2019 winner Glory Vase has been put in favourite .Has been running consistently this season without winning ,including finishing excellent second behind Breeders Cup turf winner Loves Only You in G1 QE11 Cup over C/D at Sha Tin in April .Returned after break finishing 3rd of 16 in 11f G2 at Nakayama in September .Should go well returning to 1M 4F  ,though looks no value at around 5-4 .
 
Coranation Cup winner PYLEDIVER  is preferred after winning his prep race nicely at Lingfield last month,that was fair effort giving 7lb to (109) rated Harrovian on his first start for 6 months, over trip that was on short side.Looks open to further improvement back at 1M 4F .Solid claims Value guide price 9-4 OR above .
 
Of the others Last years winner Mogul would have strong claims on last seasons form ,though has shown very little this season in four starts ,including finishing well behind Pyledriver in Coronation Cup earlier in season .Will need to bounce back to top form to trouble Pyledriver & Glory Vase .
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Longines Hong Kong Sprint (Group 1) (3yo+) (Course A) (Turf) (3yo+) Winner £1,291,785 12 runners 6f Good SKY
race conditions  £2,266,289 guaranteed For  3yo+ Penalty value  1st  £1,291,784.70 2nd  £498,583.57 3rd  £226,628.90 4th  £129,178.47 5th  £74,787.54 6th  £45,325.78

12 runnes declared for very competitive group one Sprint ,with only 2lb between the top 6 rated horses.
International Ratings :  Hot King Prawn (117) Pixie Knight (117) Danon Smash (116) Wellington (116) Lucky Patch (115) Sky Field (115) 
 
The 3-year-old colt Japanese colt ,Pixie Knight has been put in short favourite ,after winning the G1 Sprinters Stakes in impressive style at Nakayama in September ,that was big improvement having been second on his two previous starts in lower grade .Looks open to further improvement ,though odds around 15/8 make no appeal in such competitive sprint.

At the prices course specialist LUCKY PATCH looks the each-way value ,has been great form recently winning both the G2 Jockey Club Sprint & Premier Bowl .Has an excellent record over course and distance (11214231) Takes step up into G1 company for first time ,though only has 2lb to find on official figures .Solid each-way claims .Value guide price 11-2 or Above .
 
Of the others last years winner Danon Smash ,has each-way claims at decent odds ,has bit to find with Pixie Knight on Sprinters Stakes form ,though is dual G1 winner and should get the race run to suit with plenty pace in the race.
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Longines Hong Kong Mile (Group 1) (3yo+) (Course A) (Turf) (3yo+) Winner £1,399,433 11 runners 1m Good SKY
 
race conditions  £2,455,146 guaranteed For  3yo+ Weight for age  3yo from 4yo+ 1lb Penalty value  1st  £1,399,433.43 2nd  £540,132.20 3rd  £245,514.64 4th  £139,943.34 5th  £81,019.83 6th  £49,102.93 
 
11 runners declared for Hong Kong Mile,not the most competitive race on the card .International Ratings : Golden Sixty (120) Danon Kingly (118) Indy Champ (118) Waikuku (118)
 
Hong Kong horse of the year GOLDEN SIXTY is very difficult oppose ,winner of 18 out 19 starts ,including winning his last 15 starts .Won this race last year in good style at very short odds .Prices around 4-7 are not that bad considering hes been 1-5 or shorter on his last four starts .
 
Dual G1 winner Waikuku looks the best each-way alternative in the race ,having finished fourth & second in this race the last two years.Also finished fair 1L second to Golden Sixty last time over C&D in G2 Jockey Club Mile .Odds 14-1 looks very fair e-w value .
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Longines Hong Kong Cup (Group 1) (3yo+) (Course A) (Turf) (3yo+) Winner £1,614,731 12 runners 1m2f Good SKY
 
race conditions  £2,832,861 guaranteed For  3yo+ Weight for age  3yo from 4yo+ 2lb Penalty value  1st  £1,614,730.88 2nd  £623,229.46 3rd  £283,286.12 4th  £161,473.09 5th  £93,484.42 6th  £56,657.22
 
12 Runners declared for the feature race on the card with over $17 Million HKD/ £1.6 million pounds to the winner .The International ratings : Dubai Honour (121) Loves Only You (118) Mac Swiney (118) Lei Papale (118)
 
The William Haggas trained 3-Y-0 filly Dubai Honour is 3lb clear on International ratings ,after finishing excellent second in Champions Stakes at Ascot in October ,has not stopped improving this season including winning two G2 races in France ,has won h'cap on fast ground ,though all her best form has been on soft surface .Quick ground conditions have to be major concern .

Breeders Cup Filly's & Mare turf winner LOVES ONLY YOU is preferred ,has been in great form in 2021 winning 3 out 5 ,including winning over C&D in G1 QE11 Cup at Sha Tin in April ,also finished close  third to 122 rated Mishriff in valuable Sheema Classic at Meydan in March .Looks the one to beat with conditions in her favour . Value Guide price 7-4 or Above .

4-Y-0 Japanese filly Lei Papale looks best of the rest ,won the G1 Osaki Hai at Hanshin in April ,though has been bit disappointing on her last two starts,needs bounce back to form.though drop back in trip should suit better.
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HONG KONG LONGINES INTERNATIONAL RACES RECOMMENDED BETS :

PYLEDIVER 6.00 ( SHA TIN) 12F HONG KONG VASE 
1PT WIN @ 9-4 HILLS
(SECOND  LOSS £100.00) 

LUCKY PATCH 6.40 (SHA TIN ) 6F HONG KONG SPRINT
0.50PT EACH-WAY @ 6-1 HILLS 1/5 ODDS 1-2-3-4
(UNPLACED (BROUGHT DOWN) LOSS £100.00) 
 
GOLDEN SIXTY 7.50 (SHA TIN ) 8F HONG KONG MILE 
LOVES ONLY YOU 8.30 (SHA TIN) 10F HONG KONG CUP
1PT WIN DOUBLE @ 7-2 HILLS (4-7) & (15-8)
(WINNER  PROFIT £351.00 )
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STAKED £300.00
RETURN £451.00
TOTAL PROFIT £151.00

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