Saturday, October 09, 2010

Sitting out Saturday

Very small profit on Friday £10.00 / 0.10 PTS after NORTHERN BOLT finished 3RD in 5 furlong claiming stakes, quite happy in the end, just too get place after NORTHERN BOLT completely missed the break and was  well behind in early stages, ran on well inside final furlong to finish third ,though never threatened.16-1 winner Lesley's Choice.

On too Saturdays racing we have three flat cards, Ascot ,York & Wolverhampton ,The feature card being at Ascot with three G3 races , the racing there looks very competitive and nothing really appeals.York and Wolverhampton also look very tricky.No bets on Saturday .

Friday, October 08, 2010

Fridays best bets

Nice to come back with winner on Thursday  with TALENTI winning at 3-1 for (£180/ 1.80 PTS PROFIT)

Very strange betting patterns in the race Dunaskin was subject to quite big gamble 12-1 into 4-1 ,which was very puzzling as he appeared to have very little chance at these weights.

TALENTI was solid in the market all day at 3-1,that was until about 15 minutes before the race when he started too drift touching as big as 6-1 on betfair ,then all of sudden was backed heavily from 6-1 into 11-4 just before the off.

In the race itself  Dunaskin set very strong pace and was soon well clear though was in trouble 2 furlongs out and soon beaten .TALENTI had tracked the leaders in third, till getting outpaced 3 furlongs out and looked in real trouble with 2 furlongs to go ,though this horse really stays well,and picked up inside final furlong, and come with storming run on outside and got up near the line to win by neck ,very exciting race, especially when you have backed the winner.

On too Fridays racing we have three flat cards York , Musselburgh & Wolverhampton ,we go too Scotland for days only bet at Musselburgh for 5 Furlong claiming stakes.

5 FURLONG CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 5 MUSSELBURGH 4.40


NORTHERN BOLT :Consistent sort ,with good record in claimers 121,won 5f claimer two starts ago at Newcastle on heavy ground beating Captain Royale by 1.5 lenghs ,that form has since been boosted with Captain Royale winning handicap by 5 lenghs at Ayr.Ran fair  6th of 16 last time in handicap at Redcar only beaten 3 lenghs .Should go well back into class 6 claimer.


DANGER:SONNY RED looks big danger if reproducing his 2ND of 25 off mark 89 in AYR Silver cup in class 2 handicap,and takes massive drop in class here into class 6 claimer for first time,though is very inconsistent and never seems to run two races the same,and was very disappointing last time at Haydock in class 2 handicap finishing 14th of 16.


VERDICT :.SONNY RED has to be big danger in this grade, though looks plenty short enough at around 6-4 for horse so inconsistent. At the prices NORTHERN BOLT looks the value each/way bet with such good record in claiming races.Any prices around 6-1 mark would be good value 


NORTHERN BOLT 4.40 MUSSELBURGH
£50 EACH/ WAY / 0.50 PTS EACH / WAY
@ 6-1 SKY BET 


* updated at 10.20 am* 








Thursday, October 07, 2010

Thursdays best bets

Very quiet week so far, and only the Two flat cards on Thursday, Newbury and Wolverhampton ,just going concentrate on the one race today at Wolverhampton's evening card 1 mile 4f claiming stakes.

1 MILE 4 FURLONG CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 6 WOLVERHAMPTON 8.10

TALENTI;Won fair seller over extended 1 mile 3 furlongs at Windsor  in August beating Timocracy by 2.5 lenghs ,that looks quite decent form at this level,(Timocracy having won his previous 6 races).Ran good third last time at Ascot in 1 mile 4 furlong class 4 handicap of mark of 70,should go well dropping back into class 6 company.


DANGER:PAKTOLOS looks the big danger,on BHA handicap figures has quite bit in hand of this field rated 13lb clear ,ran good second in claimer at York in July ,though was very disappointing at Chester last time finishing 12th of 13, beaten 25 lenghs.


VERDICT :Strictly on the figures PAKTOLOS is the one to beat here ,though hasn't really shown much since winning handicap here back in January,and was very disappointing last time at Chester. TALENTI looks a more consistent type, and ran well on his last two starts.3-1 looks fair value.




TALENTI 8.10 WOLVERHAMPTON 
£50 EACH / WAY / 0.50PTS EACH/WAY
@ 3-1 BET365 ,STAN JAMES

Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Wet Wet Wednesday

Just the two flat cards to work with on Wednesday, Nottingham & evening card at Kempton,and with more  heavy rain forecast the conditions at Nottingham will be very testing.

Kempton's card on poly track looks slightly better quality though nothing really appeals there and no bets on Wednesday.

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

Shocking run !!

Very disappointing run from HEROSTATUS (well beaten 5TH)after being very well supported 11-4 into 2-1 favourite ,difficult to understand why he ran so badly.

On paper there was very little between HEROSTATUS & HONEST STRIKE only neck separated them last time they met, today a completely different story more than 28 lenghs !!

Its Back too the drawing board as they say,very disappointing start too October with four losing bets in row and loss of £150 / 1.50 PTS on the day.

Tuesday's best bets

Three flat cards on Tuesday Catterick ,Leicester & Southwell ,with conditions very testing on the turf we have no interest at Catterick or Leicester today,though there look's quite interesting maiden race on the fibre sand at Southwell


1 MILE 4F MAIDEN STAKES CLASS 5 SOUTHWELL 3.50
HEROSTATUS :Steadily improving since stepping up in trip ,showed improved form last time at Wolverhampton when finishing 1.5 lengh second behind Palio Square over 1 mile 4 furlongs.with Honest Strike back in third.Looks open too improvement at this trip.

DANGER; HONEST STRIKE looks the main danger after also showing improved form time at Wolverhampton  only neck behind HEROSTATUS ,should go well for in form Henry Cecil

VERDICT ; HEROSTATUS & HONEST STRIKE are closely matched on Wolverhampton form only neck separated them that day,though slightly surprising  HEROSTATUS is not favourite here, and looks fair value at around 11-4, trainer Mark Johnston has excellent record at Southwell


HEROSTATUS  3.50 SOUTHWELL
£75 EACH/ WAY / O.75 PTS E/WAY
@11-4 STAN JAMES




Monday, October 04, 2010

Monday its more rain!!

The weather continues to play havoc with the racing ,its seems we have had non stop rain for days ,all three courses Warwick,Windsor & Pontefract face early morning inspections ,with more rain forecast the ground is going too be like bog.Just not worth getting involved when conditions get this bad.

October looks like being very difficult month,if this rain continues to fall day after day. When the conditions get this bad its very difficult to find any decent value bets ,just got stay very disciplined and wait for right opportunities too come along.

Sunday, October 03, 2010

Summary of the weeks bets

September finished up very good month with just (16 BETS (7 WINNERS( PROFIT £2290/ 22.90PTS)

This week has been very disappointing 4 BETS 0 WINNERS 1 SECOND 3 UNPLACED LOSS £488 / 4.88  It looks no coincidence this was first losing week for five weeks,there's been so much rain about this week  making it very difficult to find decent bets and the bets have certainly suffered.

The first bet of week was on Tuesday at Brighton in 7 furlong claimer on DINGAAN £75 Each / way at 5-2 with Stan James .DINGAAN was always well placed and travelling well with 2 furlongs to run ,though leading briefly inside final furlong just couldn't hold on beaten neck in 2ND loss of £38.00 / 0.38

The second & third bets were on Friday at Newmarket .ALEXANDROS in 1 mile group 3 contest £50 each / way at 9-2 , was very disappointing on ground that should suited and folded tamely to finish well beaten 5TH behind impressive 7 lengh winner CITYSCAPE.The second bet was in group one middle park over 6 furlongs on TEMPLE MEADS the bet was £50 each/way ,though never got any run for my money, the saddle slipped shortly after the start and had be eased  down finishing last of 8 ,very unfortunate and with the each/ way double loss of £250 / 2.50 pts on the day and very poor day.

Final bet of week was in France in Group one Prix Moulin ,with the ground riding very soft the wonder mare GOLDIKOVA looked worth taking on at short price,and there looked couple value each /way bets in shape of REGAL PARADE & SIYOUNI £50 each/way on both at 14-1 & 7-1.In the race itself, REGAL PARADE was in perfect spot just in behind the French mare GOLDIKOVA and looked promising when taking the lead with over 2 furlongs to run though was headed inside final furlong by GOLDIKOVA and faded to come 4TH probably went for home to early ,GOLDIKOVA went on to win, amazing her 11th group one victory. Loss of £200 / 2.00 pts

THE RESULTS :


ON THE WEEK
4 BETS ) 0 WINNERS ) LOSS £488.00 / 4.88 PTS


ON THE MONTH (SEPTEMBER)
16 BETS)7 WINNERS)PROFIT £2290 / 22.90 PTS


OVERALL AFTER 34 WEEKS
272 BETS) 78 WINNERS) PROFIT 48.42






Sunday is Arc day !!

No flat cards in Britain on Sunday ,though we have fantastic days racing at Longchamp in France,we have no less than seven group one races ,including the biggest race in Europe, THE PRIX DE L 'ARC DE TRIOMPHE worth over £2 million pounds

This years race looks wide open with 20 runners ,BEHKBAD & PLANTEUR look the main two challengers for French .The Irish challenge is headed by A.O ' BRIEN pair FAME AND GLORY & CAPE BLANCO.The two main English challengers are headed by Epsom derby winner WORKFORCE and three time runner up in the race YOUMZAIN.

With ground riding very soft this should favour the French trained horses, and at the prices PLANTEUR who has never finished out of first two ,maybe the each / way value at around 7-1 .

The most interesting race on the card for me is the 7 furlong group one Prix de la Foret 

7F PRIX DE LA FORET GROUP ONE LONGCHAMP 2.20

REGAL PARADE :Two time group one winner ,who has excellent record on soft ground ,won group one  Prix Maurice de Gheest back in August at Deauville ,will be suited to the return 7 furlongs & this very soft ground.

SIYOUNI :Should be well suited dropping back to 7 furlongs for first time this season ,won group one Grand Criterium last season over 7 furlongs, finished good third in Prix Moulin last time over 1 MILE at Longchamp.

VERDICT : Fascinating contest ,with French wonder mare GOLDIKOVA trying to win her 11TH group one race,  likely to be quite short price favourite here, though she has always struggled on very soft ground  ,and she looks worth taking on with both REGAL PARADE & SIYOUNI who will both be decent prices.


REGAL PARADE 2.20 LONGCHAMP £50 E/WAY PMU
SIYOUNI 2.20 LONGCHAMP £50 E/WAY 7-1BET365