Sunday, August 22, 2010

Weekly results

Disappointing week on Betting front with no winners from 6 Bets, though 3 each-way bets did get placed still loss 5.80 pts.

Looking back at the York meeting, it was very difficult for most punters with plenty big outsiders winning and only 3 favourites winning from 24 races.Not sure why though there seemed some very strange results including (100-1 shots winning grade one races).

This will be the last post till Wednesday September 1st,thanks for reading the blog.

THE  RESULTS:


ON THE WEEK:
6 BETS)O WINNERS)LOSS 5.80 PTS


OVERALL AFTER 29 WEEKS:
253 BETS)74 WINNERS)PROFIT 30.00 PTS)



Friday, August 20, 2010

Taking time out

Very enjoyable two days at York ,a great racecourse and fantastic city to visit.

The betting part was not very successful, in fact I didn't have any winners from 6 bets in two days and suffered quite big losses over the two days, and decided its time to take  break from all betting till the start of September.

After having an excellent run in March ,April & June the profits have started dwindle away over the past seven weeks and  in particular  July being big losing month.

I am disappointed with the way things gone over last seven weeks the results haven't shown any improvement in August,just can't seem to get any momentum going the odd winning day seems to be followed by two or three losing days.

It seems good time to take little break from the racing and to try and come back a lot fresher in for last two months of flat season.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Wednesdays best bets (York Ebor day 2)

First day at YORK both each/way bets finished in the places with Midas Touch 2ND & Byword 3RD no damage done there with level day .

On to day two at York ,the feature race the Totesport Ebor handicap  richest handicap run in Europe £130,000 to the winner and  two decent group two contests.

I will be travelling down to York  in early hours of Wednesday morning around 210 miles journey from east coast for 2 days,really looking forward to my first visit to Knavesmire.Just going post my selections over the next three days as won't have the time to write detailed analysis. four bets on Wednesday at York

KING OF WANDS 2.15 YORK 
1PT E-WAY @ 9-2 STAN JAMES 1/4 ODDS 


SHROPSHIRE 2.50 YORK
1PT E-WAY @ 5-1 BET 365 1/4 ODDS


FACE THE PROBLEM 4.05 YORK
2.50 PTS WIN @ 2-1 HILLS


CHRISTMAS LIGHT
0.75PTS E-WAY @ 7-1 BET365 1/4 ODDS





Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Tuesday York ebor day one best bets

 First day of York ebor meeting with three group races the Feature races being Juddmonte international group one and Great Voltigeur group two.

Overnight there is plenty rain forecast at York, and I would think the ground would be riding Good/Soft,if the forecast is correct,though will wait till the morning before posting Tuesdays bets, when we will have more of an idea about the ground.

*updated at 11.00 am*

Only 1.4 mm  rain fell over night and ground remains good though I would think it will be riding on slow side of good .Two bets on day one.

10F JUDDMONTE INTERNATIONAL GROUP 1 YORK 3.25
BYWORD:Improving French colt winning three times this season including at Royal Ascot,beating Twice Over in the group one Prince Wales stakes,only defeat this season when beaten 0.50 lenghs by Goldikova at Lonchamp in May.


MAIN DANGER:Appears to be RIP VAN WINKLE who ran good second last time at Goodood behind Canford Cliffs only beaten neck trying to concede 8LB,though ran his best race last season when finishing 1L second behind Sea the Stars in the Eclipse over today's distance of 10F


VERDICT :1) BYWORD 2)RIP VAN WINKLE 3)TWICE OVER


12F GREAT VOLTIGEUR GROUP 2 YORK 2.50
MIDAS TOUCH:Still improving, good second in Irish derby finishing 0.50 lengh behind Cape Blanco.(form looks solid) and will be suited by this easier ground at York,Failed to handle the Epsom track,should be suited far better by this track


MAIN DANGER:REWILDING Looks big danger after finishing third in Epsom two places in front of Midas Touch,though hasn't ran since (73 days ago) which is slight concern,though should be suited by the track and this easier ground


VERDICT:1)MIDAS TOUCH 2)REWILDING 3)HARRIS TWEED


TODAYS BETS


BYWORD 1PT E-WAY @ 3-1 STAN JAMES ,3.25 YORK 
MIDAS TOUCH 1PT E-WAY@ 3-1 STAN JAMES 2.50 YORK


O.50 E/WAY DOUBLE BOTH 3-1 STAN JAMES AND 1/4 ODDS 1-2-3







Monday, August 16, 2010

Blank Monday

Typical quiet start to the week on Monday with four cards, couple fairly decent races on poly track at Kempton including 0-100 class 2 handicap  though that looks quite hot contest and with Mass Rally ,The Confessor & Avenuesnalleyways all holding strong claims.

We have the start of the York Ebor festival starting tomorrow so will concentrating on that meeting over the next four days.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Summary of the weeks bets

Very quiet week with 3 points loss in total,just four bets and the one winner at 9-4 ,not easy week with so much rain about and so many non runners,made it very difficult to find value bets.In the circumstances 3 points loss not so disappointing.Next week we have some top class racing at the four day York Ebor meeting  and hopefully there will be few more winning bets.

THE WEEKLY  RESULTS :


ON THE WEEK:
4 BETS) 1 WINNER)LOSS 3PTS)


OVERALL AFTER 28 WEEKS
247 BETS) 74 WINNERS) PROFIT 35.80)




Saturday, August 14, 2010

Saturday Reflections

Not sure what happened to Kite wood after massive gamble took place 7-2 into 6-4, though ran absolute stinker  finishing 6TH beaten nearly 24 Lenghs, bitterly disappointing after such big gamble took place.

No bets on Sunday with three very poor cards in UK,though there is fascinating group one  race in France were the brilliant French mare GOLDIKOVA takes on the smart  PACO BOY should be great race though not really betting race.

Saturdays best bets

Disappointing run from Piano who could only manage 4TH place,after having every chance with 2 Furlongs to run,though no excuses just not good enough and 2 pt loss on the day.

Saturday we have plenty racing, though just going concentrate on the main meeting at Newbury which stage couple decent group races Hungerford stakes 7 furlongs group two& Geoffrey Freer stakes 13 furlongs group three .They were calling the ground good on Friday though it looked to riding lot slower to me and the times backed this up and I would say its riding good/soft and with more rain forecast on Saturday.

GEOFFREY FREER STAKES GROUP 3 NEWBURY 2.30
KITE WOOD; Decent performer on his day ,won this race last year beating Age of Reason by 1.5 Lenghs,then went on to finish good Second in St Leger at Doncaster last September on ground faster than ideal.Made winning reappearance in France in Group two race over 2 Miles,though needs to bounce back after very disappointing run at Royal Ascot in Gold cup back in June.Will be well suited by this softer ground and unbeaten 3 from 3 in group three company.


HUNGERFORD STAKES GROUP 2 NEWBURY 3.05
BALTHAZAAR'S GIFT: Impressive winner of this race last year beating the useful Regal Parade by 3 Lenghs ,ran fair 5TH last time at Goodwood behind Lord Shanakill only beaten just over 2 Lenghs ,will be suited by this easier ground and has proven form in group two company.




KITE WOOD 2.30 NEWBURY 1PT E-WAY @ 7-2 BET365 
RULE FOUR  15P IN £
BALTHAZAAR'S GIFT 3.05 NEWBURY 1PT E-WAY @ 9-2 BET365 
NON RUNNER


0.50 E-WAY DOUBLE AT 7-2 & 9-2 BET365.


Updated at 10.50
Lots non runners everywhere today and Balthazaar's gift now non runner and we have have 15p rule four on Kite wood at least we on at good price after rule four around 3-1 mark.




  

Friday, August 13, 2010

Fridays best bets

Friday we have 6 cards though looks quite difficult day  with plenty rain forecast just about everywhere,just going concentrate on the one race at Newbury 3-Y-0 maiden at 4.55

10F MAIDEN FILLIES CLASS 5 NEWBURY 4.55
PIANO:Promising debut last time at Nottingham finishing 4th behind Jivry beaten 6 Lenghs ,ran very green in early stages and was soon well behind though was really staying on well the last 2 furlongs and was not given hard race, looks sure improve for that run, for in form John Gosden.


1PT E-WAY @ 4-1, PADDY POWER,LADBROKES 





Thursday, August 12, 2010

Another blank day

Plenty racing on Thursday with six cards though again nothing really appeals apart from one decent group three race at Salisbury the racing don't look that great with plenty of very tricky handicaps.There does look some good racing at Newbury on Saturday including group three Geoffrey Freer stakes & group two Hungerford Stakes.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Its a Blank Wednesday!!

Tuesday's only bet Noble Storm could only manage rather disappointing third ,behind Masta Plasta who won very easily by nearly 4 lenghs making all .On paper Masta Plasta did look to have big chance, though with no win for nearly 2 years it was very off putting.

Plenty racing on Wednesday with five cards and couple decent meetings at Salisbury & Sandown including fair listed race at Salisbury.It looks one them days though, with plenty tricky races and nothing really appeals as decent bet.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Tuesday's best bets

Good to start the week with SHANNERSBURG winning the seller at 9-4 for 2.25 PTS PROFIT

Tuesday's racing looks slightly better with decent evening card at Nottingham featuring two class 3  races.The 5F condition race at 7.50 is main interest.

5F CONDITION RACE CLASS 3 NOTTINGHAM 7.50
NOBLE STORM:Had some very decent form last season winning twice in good  handicaps at Goodwood & York ,and finishing close second in listed race at Newmarket last October behind Spin Cycle.Does need to bounce back after disappointing run at Nottingham in April ,though has decent strike rate for sprinter 5 from 16 and looks very well treated at weights in this condition race.


The main danger looks to be the D.Nicholls trained MASTA PLASTA who has shown some decent  form this season, best run being good second in condition race at Beverley back in May behind the useful Look Busy,though hasn't  won any race for nearly 2 years and has gone some 18 races without win.




NOBLE STORM 7.50 NOTTINGHAM 
1.25 PTS WIN @ 5-2 CORALS .THIRD


 updated at 10.10am






Monday, August 09, 2010

Mondays best bets

Four low grade cards on Monday , just the one race of interest the 1 Mile 4F selling stakes at Wolverhampton.

12F SELLING STAKES CLASS 6 WOLVERHAMPTON 4.15


SHANNERSBURG: Good winner of seller over 1 Mile 4F last December at Lingfield (Won by 4 Lenghs)  when trained by David Pipe ,lightly raced since ran good 2ND for Ian Williams 6 days ago over 2 miles at Catterick appeared not quite stay the 2 mile trip.Drop back to 1 MILE 4F will suit should go well in this weak seller. 


On paper SIR BOSS looks big danger,has 9lb in hand on official handicap ratings and did win handicaps at Chepstow & Ffos Las last July and takes big drop in class into selling company for first time ,however has shown very little on his last 6 starts including on Jumps last time at Perth beaten 25 Lenghs in 5 runner race.




SHANNERSBURG 4.15 WOLV 1PT WIN @ 9-4 BET365
updated at 10.20 am (WINNER !!)

Sunday, August 08, 2010

Summary of the bets

Very quiet week with just the two bets one winner and e/way placed with total profit of 6.20 pts.Quite happy to finish the week with profit ,the racing over the last 7 days has not been great.

THE RESULTS ON THE WEEK
2 BETS)1 WINNER)PROFIT 6.20 PTS)


OVERALL AFTER 27 WEEKS 
243 BETS)73 WINNERS)PROFIT 38.80)


Over the last seven days iv'e had plenty time to analyse all the results over the past six months up to July 31st.
Its always good idea to analyse all your bets over period of time to see what races you are doing well at and the races you are performing badly in.

My strong races seem to be claimers,sellers,condition races & maiden races with very decent profits in these races.It was quite shock to discover that I was doing so badly in listed races( 6 winners from 35 bets) this is shocking strike rate of just 17%.Handicap races are also poor with (11 winners from 50 bets) Just 22% strike rate.

Looking at the results over past 6 months , though in profit I think I can do lot better.I have now decided its time to specialize in certain type of races(CLAIMERS,GROUP RACES,SELLING STAKES,CONDITION RACES,MAIDEN RACES& NOVICE STAKES )and to avoid all handicaps listed races and all Jump racing . This will mean a lot less bets each month but hopefully far greater profits.




HANDICAPS)50 BETS )11 WINNERS)22%)LOSS 19.60)
CLAIMERS)29 BETS)15 WINNERS)52%)PROFIT 49.70)
GROUP RACES)53 BETS)12 WINNERS)23%)LOSS 2.20)
LISTED RACES)35 BETS)6 WINNERS)17%)LOSS 34.50)
CONDITION RACES)9 BETS)4 WINNERS)44%)PROFIT 13.00)
SELLING STAKES)17 BETS)8 WINNERS)47%)PROFIT 18.90)
MAIDEN RACES)24 BETS)8 WINNERS)33%)PROFIT 16.90)
NOV STAKES)2 BETS)1 WINNER)50%)PROFIT 1.80)
CHASE RACES)7 BETS)1 WINNER)14%)LOSS 10.00)
HURDLE RACES)7 BETS)1 WINNER)14%) LOSS 4.00)





No selections on Sunday

Three ordinary cards in UK with no real interest,though decent card in Ireland at the Curragh with the Group one Phoenix stakes and two decent Group two races,though no real good betting opportunities with both Fame and Glory & Strong suit likely winners at very short prices.

Saturday, August 07, 2010

Saturdays best bets

Another busy Saturday with six meetings, Haydock stage the best card with the feature race being the Rose of Lancaster stakes Group three.

10F ROSE LANCASTER STAKES GROUP 3 HAYDOCK 2.50
DISTANT MEMORIES :Tough and consistent performer with an excellent record on ground good/soft or softer 21121, ran good second last time behind Red Badge in listed race at Newbury on Good ground,will relish this testing ground.




DISTANT MEMORIES 2.50 HAYDOCK 1PT E-WAY @ 6-1 VC BET
RESULT -THIRD







Friday, August 06, 2010

Nothing on Friday

Nice to get good start in August 5.70 PT total profit on the day with JET AWAY winning at 9-4 and landing the exacta with CON ARTIST.Will be using the exacta lot more in the future on certain races.

We have six meetings on Friday though there are couple decent looking races, looks very tricky racing and nothing really appeals and will wait till Saturday where there looks couple very interesting races at Haydock.

Thursday, August 05, 2010

Thursdays best bets

Plenty racing on Thursday with six cards though most interest will be at Haydock park with huge jackpot carry over of £981,000 the second biggest ever,and with fairly small fields the pool could reach close too 2 million mark.Sandown also stage fairly decent evening card.For the first bet of week we go to Sandown for decent looking class 3 handicap.

10F CLASS 3 HANDICAP SANDOWN 7.55
JET AWAY:Won decent looking maiden last time at Lingfield over 9F well on top at finish, form looks solid with both second and third winning next time,step up to 10F will suit and looks well treated of mark 86.CON ARTIST looks the main danger has improved with each run, finishing good second last time at Newbury in 10F class 3 handicap behind Emerging Artist.

JET AWAY SANDOWN 7.55 2PTS @ 9-4 PADDY POWER (WINNER)
JET AWAY & CON ARTIST 1/4 PT REV/EXACTA  ( £6.80)

Wednesday, August 04, 2010

Woeful Wednesday

The racing so far this week can only be described as woeful and Wednesday's racing is no different with five very poor cards.With 33 races you would think there would be at least one or two decent betting opportunities. I couldn't find one

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Tuesday's best bets

Low grade stuff on Tuesday with four very moderate cards ,only the one race of interest the 12 furlong claiming race at Catterick.

12F CLASS 6 CLAIMING RACE CATTERICK 4.30


EIJAAZ :Dual C/D winner  in good form winning last two in claiming company at Catterick & Redcar. That Catterick form has been boosted by second horse Film Festival winning class 3 handicap at Carlisle next time by 4 lenghs of mark 68 ,looks well treated in this claimer of 9 stone 3lb.SUDDEN IMPACT looks possible danger on her two wins back in April, needs to bounce back after three disappointing runs, though now takes drop in class and looks well weighted of 8 stone 9lb. 


EIJAAZ. 2.5 PTS WIN IF EVENS OR BIGGER
*Hypnotic Gaze non runner*


(No bet unless evens or bigger at 10.00 am only 5-6)
Did touch 10-11 in places though not the required evens was very well supported went off 1-2 and did manage to win.







Monday, August 02, 2010

Blank Monday

Four very mediocre cards on Monday mainly consisting of very difficult to solve handicaps ,can't find any possible bet and its blank Monday for me.








Sunday, August 01, 2010

review of July & last six months

Only good thing about July was to finish the month on winning note with MIDDAY winning the group one Nassau stakes, very strange race though with MIDDAY looking like winning easily with 2 furlongs to run then she seem to idle inside furlong before pulling away near the finish,incredibly she traded 64-1 in running on betfair.

Overall July has been very poor month for me,with only 5 winners from 36 bets and loss of 31.50 pts 


Looking back at the results,just incredible bad losing run in July with 19 losing bets in row,I can't remember that ever happening to me before,the July meeting at Newmarket was where a lot of the damage was done with nearly 16pt loss there in three days


Goodwood this week has been disappointing too with just one winner from 10 bets,though 4 each-way bets did get placed.After 6 months since the blog started the profit now is just over 32pts





THE RESULTS ON THE WEEK 
11 BETS)1 WINNER)LOSS 5.00 PTS


OVERALL RESULTS AFTER 26 WEEKS
241 BETS)72 WINNERS)PROFIT 32.60)


MONTH BY MONTH
FEB=LOSS 7.90
MAR=PROFIT 42.40
APR=PROFIT 8.30
MAY=LOSS 10.00
JUN=PROFIT 31.30
JUL=LOSS 31.50