Thursday, March 02, 2023

Super Saturday Meydan Carnival Week Nine (Three Recommended Bets ) Sat 4th Mar 2023


Super Saturday at Meydan on Week Nine of the carnival ,with some excellent looking races ,including six group races ,with the feature race the 9f G1 Jebel Hatta .

Burj Nahaar (Group 3) (Dirt) (3yo+) Winner £125,000 16 runners 1m Fast RTV
 
 
race conditions  £208,333 guaranteed For  northern hemisphere 4yo+ and southern hemisphere 3yo+ Penalty value  1st  £125,000.00 2nd  £41,666.67 3rd  £20,833.33 4th  £10,416.67 5th  £6,250.00 6th  £4,166.67 
 
JBB FORM RATINGS :
1) DISCOVERY ISLAND (107) (2) EVERFAST (105) (3) SECRET AMBITION (104)
 
This looks competitive group three contest on the dirt ,slightly surprising to see the 10-Y-0 Secret Ambition heading the market at around 5-1,having not won for nearly two years.Finished fair second last time in G3 Jebel Ali mile behind Fanaar ,though others make more appeal.
 
At the prices the 6-Y-0 gelding DISCOVERY ISLAND looks the each-way value at around 8-1 ,after finishing good second to Dubai World Cup favourite Algiers in G2 company back in January,will need to bounce back after disappointing run last time at Meydan in Firebreak Stakes ,though the jockey reported the horse failed to handle the track conditions and face the kickback on very muddy track after heavy rain .James Doyle looks interesting jockey booking having not ridden the horse since 2019 .Solid each-way claims if returning to his Al Maktoum Challenge form,especially with bookmakers paying 5 places .
 
The Doug Watson trained Everfast looks the most interesing of the other runners ,having finished creditable second in Firebreak stakes last time behind Prince Eiji .had previously finished fair third behind Algiers and Discovery Island .Each-way claims in open race
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Ras Al Khor (Conditions) (Turf) (3yo+) Winner £150,000 14 runners 7f Good RTV
 
 
race conditions  £250,000 guaranteed For  3yo+ Penalty value  1st  £150,000.00 2nd  £50,000.00 3rd  £25,000.00 4th  £12,500.00 5th  £7,500.00 6th  £5,000.00 
 
JBB FORM RATINGS :
1) AL SUHAIL (114) (2) DANYAH (111) (3) LANGASH (109) 
 
Charlie Appleby trained Al Suhail will be popular after bolting up in G2 Al Fahidi Fort in January ,that form looks decent, beating solid yardstick Alfareeq easily by 4L,after coming from last to first in course record time.The race did seem fall apart with stablemate Noble Truth (odds on favourite) finishing tailed off last.Clearly the horse to beat ,though was well beaten favourite in this race last year when only 13th behind Storm Damage .At short odds makes little appeal .
 
 The 6-Y-0 gelding DANYAH looks interesting after winning fair listed contest over C&D at Meydan last time ,beating the 110 rated Modern News 2L .Had some fair form on turf in UK for Owen Burrows ,including finishing second in Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot behind the useful Highfield Princess .Odds 7-1 with William Hills looks decent each-way value in race lacking strength in depth . .
 
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Jebel Hatta (Group 1) (Turf) (3yo+) Winner £175,000 15 runners 1m1f Good RTV
 
 
race conditions  £291,667 guaranteed For  northern hemisphere 4yo+ and southern hemisphere 3yo+ Penalty value  1st  £175,000.00 2nd  £58,333.33 3rd  £29,166.67 4th  £14,583.33 5th  £8,750.00 6th  £5,833.33 
 
JBB FORM RATINGS :
1)REAL WORLD (120) (2) VALLIANT PRINCE (116) (2) MASTER OF THE SEAS (116)

 The feature race on Super Saturday the G1 Jebel Hatta over nine furlongs ,sees the return of the very useful Real World who has excellent record on turf 5 out 7 (2211111) with both defeats coming at the hands of Baaeed .The trainer has reported the horse will only be 80 % fit having not run since last June at Royal Ascot.May just need this race, with his main target being the Dubai Turf in three weeks time .
 
Course specialist VALLIANT PRINCE should go well having already won both the G2 Al Rashidiya & G2 Singspiel Stakes both over C&D at this years carnival ,has excellent record here at Meydan winning 4 out 4 .Has to overcome wide draw in stall 14 ,though over this nine furlong trip there is quite long run to the turn and shouldn't be problem for horse that is normally sits just off the pace. Odds around 11-2 look very fair each-way value, especially with bookmakers paying 4 places .
 
Master Of The Seas  looks best of the other runners ,having made winning return in the G2 Zabeel mile in January beating Shalir half-lengh (breaking the track record) .That looked fair effort on his first start for over 9 months,though the form hasn't really worked out with second,third & fourth all well beaten since Can't be ruled out from decent draw in stall 2 ,though is (0 out 3 ) in group one company.
 
Of the other contenders Alfareeq & Shelir are both very consistent sorts ,who should run well at decent odds .
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RECOMMENDED BETS MEYDAN SUPER SATURDAY 4TH MARCH 
 
DISCOVERY ISLAND 12.40 MEYDAN( BURJ NAHAAR GROUP 3)
0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @ 8-1* BET365 (1/5 ODDS 1-2-3-4-5) 
(WINNER SP 11-2 PROFIT +£480.00 / 4.80 PTS)
 
DANYAH 3.10 MEYDAN (RAS AL KHOR CONDITIONS RACE)
0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @ 7-1 WILLIAM HILLS (1/5 ODDS 1-2-3-4) 
(UNPLACED SP 13-2 LOSS -£100.00 / 1.00 PT
 
VALIANT PRINCE 3.45 MEYDAN (JEBEL HATTA GROUP 1)
0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @ 11-2 PADDY POWER & BETFAIR (1/5 ODDS 1-2-3-4)
(UNPLACED SP 5-1 LOSS £-100.00/1.00 PT
 
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0.25 PTS EACH-WAY TREBLE @ 379-1 PADDY POWER OR BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK
ALL RACES (1/5 ODDS 1-2-3-4) (8-1) (11-2) (11-2)(WON ) (UNPL ) (UNPL ) 
(LOSS  -£50.00 /0.50 PTS
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STAKED £350.00/ 3.50 PTS
RETURN £580.00/ 5.80 PTS
TOTAL PROFIT +£230.00/2.30 PTS 

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