However, the most successful bettors often use racing strategies that have been tried and tested, such as the layering horse strategy and the dutching system. Some of them are simple and self-explanatory, while others involve math and calculations.
After learning the different methods, use a TVG promo code to try them out.
Recent Winners Betting Strategy
This self-explanatory strategy is perhaps the most simple out of all of them. After choosing a race to wager on, the bettor will look at the race form of the horses to see if any of them have scored a recent victory.
If they did indeed win an event recently, they will be more likely to perform well. Most of the information required for this strategy can be found relatively easy, making it a simple process. The downside is that a recent winner often has lower odds, making it a safe bet.
Horse and Jockey Strategy
Another simple method is the horse and jockey strategy. In this system, the bettor finds a horse that finished second in its previous race. The horse has to have had the same jockey in the previous race as the current one.
However, the jockey had to be riding the horse for the first time in the previous race. The idea behind this method is that the jockey will become better adapted to the horse by the second race, which could lead to a better performance.
Back the Beaten Favorite System
Another type of betting strategy is the back the beaten favorite system. This method relies on the public’s doubt after a highly regarded horse is beaten in a race. In the following race, betting often goes against the horse, causing the runner’s odds to increase.
Just because a top-tier horse loses a race does not mean it will underperform in the next. Because of this, some bettors will choose to wager on a horse that is coming off a loss, hoping that it was just a one-off. Since the horse will have better odds than normal, this strategy can be used for the long-term. There is almost always a profit over time.
The Statistical Lay
The statistical lay, or the laying horse strategy, is another popular method used by bettors. In this complex horse racing betting system, a bettor is essentially wagering against a runner.
In general, a lay bet is when the bettor acts as the bookmaker and bets against an outcome rather than on one. Instead of betting on the favorite to win the race, any other horse is bet on.
This system first requires a race that has ten or more runners. Once a race is found, a bettor will identify the three favorites and study their odds.
Out of the top three favorites, the bettor then needs to pick out runners that have odds between 3.0 (2/1) and 5.8 (4.8/1). The bettor will lay against the one with the lowest odds, and statistics show that this should realize a winner about 80% of the time.
This method is based on the statistics showing that the top three favorites, when their odds are within the specified range, only win about 17% of the time. By placing a lay bet, or betting that the horse won’t win, the wager should result in a profit 83% of the time.
To stay on the safe side, this method should mostly be used on Group 1 Grade 1 races. In these events, there are normally more in-depth records of the runner, and this allows for a weak favorite to be more easily identified. Top tier races also see more experienced bettors wagering on the favorite, which brings the prices down.
The Dutching System
The last method is the dutching system, and it is considered one of the best and most tested out of all the horse racing betting strategies. The dutching system requires some math and calculations.
The main benefit of this strategy is that when the bettor wagers on a selection of horses, the same amount of money should be returned each time, regardless of the overall winner.
The first step is to choose a race that has a high number of runners, usually ten or more. The bettor will then identify two of the top three ranked horses with generous odds. This is when the calculations come in.
The bettor will work out the implied probability of the horses winning the race (e.g., a runner with 2/1 odds has a 33.33% chance of winning). Then, the bettor has to determine the stake necessary for each bet to guarantee a set profit. The set profit is the same regardless of the outcome.
Implied probabilities from the odds:
- Implied probability of a 11/1 horse = (1 / (11/1 + 1)) * 100 = 8.33%
- Implied probability of a 3/1 horse = (1/ (3/1 + 1)) * 100 = 25%
- How much to stake on the 11/1 horse = (8.33 / (25 + 8.33)) * £10 = £2.50
- How much to stake on the 3/1 horse = (25 / (25 + 8.33)) * £10 = £7.50
There are various online calculators that are capable of doing the calculations, making it quicker and easier for the bettor.
There are many different methods to choose from when wagering on a horse race. Some systems are simple and others complex, but many of them add a new layer to horse race betting. While betting systems do not work 100% of the time, a bettor can greatly improve returns by following one or more.
Ref the Dutching, the implied probability of a 2/1 winning is 33.33% and not 50% as mentioned, evens would be that percentage.ReplyDelete
Good read though and thanks for posting.
I really appreciate your work which you have shared here about the Horse Race Betting. The article you have shared here is very informative and the points you have mentioned are very helpful. Thank you so much. Best Horse Racing Betting WebsitesReplyDelete