Friday, September 02, 2016

3.00 Haydock 32Red Mile (Group 3 ) Sat 3rd Sep

August ended up ,bit of disappointing month,with 1 winner from 7 bets ,for £210 loss on the month.

Most of the bets didn't run that badly ( 1 second & 3 thirds),though just not enough winners on the month unfortunately .

However overall the blog is still showing £2591 profit in 2016. 20 winners from 56 bets (35.71 % strike rate ) (ROI + 50.60 % ) Hopefully we can get back on track in September .

Moving on to Saturday we have five stakes races ,with the highlight being the group one sprint cup at Haydock , though for the blogs best bet, we are going concentrate on one main supporting races, the group three 32 Red Mile at 3.00 .

 10 runners declared for the 32red Mile at Haydock ,on ground described as good (heavy showers forecast).The three main contenders are Convey , Custom Cut & Mitchum Swagger .

CONVEY : 4-Y-0 colt ,winning 2 out 11 ,including winning listed race at Pontefract in July .Also finished close 2ND in G3 Supreme stakes at Goodwood last week behind Opal Tiara .Fair claims on form ,though has poor win record in group races 0 out 6 .Best form good or G/F

CUSTOM CUT : 7-Y-0 gelding ,winning 12 out 52 ,including winning 6 times in group company . Not won this season ,though finished creditable 4TH in G2 Summer Mile at Ascot in July .Also finished fair 3RD in G3 Strensall Stakes at York last time .Should go well , best form at mile on good or softer .

MITCHUM SWAGGER : 4-Y-0 Gelding ,winning 2 out 7 ,including winning handicap over C&D last season .Also finished good third of 27 in Royal Hunt Cup ,at Ascot in June off mark 108 .Up in class ,though looks open to improvement after just 7 starts.Best form at mile on soft surface .

VERDICT : This doesn't look the strongest group three contest on paper ,though still looks  competitive race on official ratings ,with only 6LB separating 9 of the runners .Heavy showers are also forecast on Saturday morning ,so ground conditions may be on softer side of good.

At the prices CUSTOM CUT looks solid each-way value here.There was nothing wrong with his 1.5 lengh third behind Scottish last time at York ,in very  fast time (1.39 fast ).The only confirmed front runner in the race, should get uncontested lead, and should take plenty catching from decent draw in stall 3 .Odds around 6-1 looks fair value .

Mitchum Swagger looks the main danger, especially if the rain arrives,goes particularly well here at Haydock ,including winning handicap over C&D on easy ground ,though will still need to show more improvement to land this G3 contest .


(UNPLACED SP 10-3F LOSS £100.00)

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