Friday, September 30, 2016

2.30 Ascot 1M 4F Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3 ) Sat Oct 1st

On Saturday we have some top quality racing from Ascot , Newmarket & Redcar ,featuring seven class one races .Going concentrate on the group 3 Cumberland Lodge stakes at 2.30 .

9 runners declared for the G3 Cumberland Lodge stakes at Ascot .On ground described as good ,though showers are forecast.The three main contenders are Arab Spring , Kings Fete & Western Hymn .

ARAB SPRING : Won 6 out 11 ,including winning two group 3 races . Returned to form last time ,winning the G3 September stakes on poly track at Kempton.Has shown some solid form in this grade ,over last two seasons .Also has excellent strike rate over this 12F trip (11411) .Solid claims ,acts on soft or G/F .

KINGS FETE :Won 4 out 10 .Been in excellent form recently,winning last two starts in G3 company ,including winning the Geoffrey Freer stakes last time at Newbury .Obvious claims ,though this looks stronger G3 contest ,best form on good or G/F .

WESTERN HYMN : Won 6 out 17 , including winning four group races over 1M 2F .Hasn't looked quite as good this season ,though has finished 2ND three times ,including finishing close 2ND in Brigadier Gerard at Sandown ,behind Time Test.The return to this longer trip ,not certain to suit .Best form on good/soft .

VERDICT : On official ratings Western Hymn is 4LB clear ,and will be suited returning to group three company ,though has always looked better horse over 10 furlongs .Should be thereabouts ,though is passed over .

ARAB SPRING looks solid, and ticks all the boxes .Having won 4 out 5 over 1M 4F and 2 out 2 over the trip in group 3 company .Also Looked back to his best last time ,when winning the September stakes at Kempton l in good style..Odds around 10/3 look very fair value .

ARAB SPRING 2.30 ASCOT 
£80 WIN @ 10/3 WILLIAM HILLS*
(SECOND SP 7-2 LOSS £80.00 ) 

Friday, September 16, 2016

3.25 Newbury 5F World Trophy Stakes (Group three ) Sat 17th Sep

Its been quiet spell recently for the blog ,with no bets for two weeks ,though there has been no real suitable betting opportunities in the class one races .

 On Saturday we have interesting card from Newbury with three class one races .Going concentrate on the group three World trophy stakes at 3.25 

8 runners go to post ,for the 5 furlong World Trophy Stakes at Newbury .After 74mm rain over last 24 hours ,the ground is described as soft.The three main contenders are Boom The Groom , Cotai Glory & Ridge Ranger.

BOOM THE GROOM :Won 3 out 22 on turf .Been in excellent form recently ,winning last two starts in competitive class 2 handicaps at Goodwood & York,including winning off mark 102 at York .Has poor record in class one races 0 out 7 .Best form on good or faster . 

COTAI GLORY : Won 3 out 18 ,including winning in G3 & Listed company.Shown some useful form this season without winning ,including finishing excellent 2ND in G1 King Stand stakes at Royal Ascot .Not shown much on recent starts ,though did finish good 4TH in G1 Nunthorpe at York .Inconsistent sort ,though can't be ruled out .Best form on good or faster .

RIDGE RANGER : Won 6 out 19 .Showed progressive form this season, including winning 6F listed race at Nottingham & G3 Summer Stakes at York.Also Lost nothing in defeat ,when trying concede 9LB to Mehronissa in listed race at Pontefract last time .Best form on good or good/soft .

VERDICT : RIDGE RANGER has looked very progressive mare this season ,including winning in group 3 company at York .The return to 5 furlongs,won't be problem ,having finished close second in this race year .Odds around 10-3 look solid value .

RIDGE RANGER 3.25 NEWBURY 
£90.00 WIN @ 10-3 SKYBET*      
(THIRD SP 13-8F LOSS £90.00 )

Friday, September 02, 2016

3.00 Haydock 32Red Mile (Group 3 ) Sat 3rd Sep

August ended up ,bit of disappointing month,with 1 winner from 7 bets ,for £210 loss on the month.

Most of the bets didn't run that badly ( 1 second & 3 thirds),though just not enough winners on the month unfortunately .

However overall the blog is still showing £2591 profit in 2016. 20 winners from 56 bets (35.71 % strike rate ) (ROI + 50.60 % ) Hopefully we can get back on track in September .

Moving on to Saturday we have five stakes races ,with the highlight being the group one sprint cup at Haydock , though for the blogs best bet, we are going concentrate on one main supporting races, the group three 32 Red Mile at 3.00 .

 10 runners declared for the 32red Mile at Haydock ,on ground described as good (heavy showers forecast).The three main contenders are Convey , Custom Cut & Mitchum Swagger .

CONVEY : 4-Y-0 colt ,winning 2 out 11 ,including winning listed race at Pontefract in July .Also finished close 2ND in G3 Supreme stakes at Goodwood last week behind Opal Tiara .Fair claims on form ,though has poor win record in group races 0 out 6 .Best form good or G/F

CUSTOM CUT : 7-Y-0 gelding ,winning 12 out 52 ,including winning 6 times in group company . Not won this season ,though finished creditable 4TH in G2 Summer Mile at Ascot in July .Also finished fair 3RD in G3 Strensall Stakes at York last time .Should go well , best form at mile on good or softer .

MITCHUM SWAGGER : 4-Y-0 Gelding ,winning 2 out 7 ,including winning handicap over C&D last season .Also finished good third of 27 in Royal Hunt Cup ,at Ascot in June off mark 108 .Up in class ,though looks open to improvement after just 7 starts.Best form at mile on soft surface .

VERDICT : This doesn't look the strongest group three contest on paper ,though still looks  competitive race on official ratings ,with only 6LB separating 9 of the runners .Heavy showers are also forecast on Saturday morning ,so ground conditions may be on softer side of good.

At the prices CUSTOM CUT looks solid each-way value here.There was nothing wrong with his 1.5 lengh third behind Scottish last time at York ,in very  fast time (1.39 fast ).The only confirmed front runner in the race, should get uncontested lead, and should take plenty catching from decent draw in stall 3 .Odds around 6-1 looks fair value .

Mitchum Swagger looks the main danger, especially if the rain arrives,goes particularly well here at Haydock ,including winning handicap over C&D on easy ground ,though will still need to show more improvement to land this G3 contest .

CUSTOM CUT 3.00 HAYDOCK 

£50.00 EACH-WAY @ 6-1 BETVICTOR OR PADDY POWER *
(UNPLACED SP 10-3F LOSS £100.00)