Thursday, June 30, 2016

Unfinished business in Sussex clash


Glorious Goodwood has got the potential to stage a glorious rematch should the market principles turn up for the Qatar Sussex Stakes on July 27.
Recently, the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot was billed as the 'race of the season' when the one-mile contest pitted a trio of Guineas winners against one another.
Galileo Gold, the hero of Newmarket's 2,000 Guineas squared off once more against Awtaad, Kevin Prendergast's horse having taken his measure in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, while The Gurkha – winner of the French equivalent at Deauville – ensured it was a truly mouthwatering prospect.
Frankie Dettori and Galileo Gold emerged best at Ascot, with The Gurkha powering home late on to condemn Awtaad to third spot.
And yet, the race arguably left more questions than answers in the aftermath.
As such, the horse racing betting for a potential rematch in the Goodwood Group 1 is already sparking plenty of debate.
At Ascot, the effervescent Dettori once more proved his mettle in the saddle. The Italian kicked for home while rivals Chris Hayes on Awtaad and Ryan Moore on The Gurkha were switched off at the tail of affairs.
It was to prove a decisive and race-winning move from Dettori. Awtaad, denied the first run that served him well at the Curragh, wasn't able to bridge the gap – much like Galileo Gold had been defeated in Ireland – and eventually surrendered second spot in the shadows of the post.
It was The Gurkha that produced arguably the best finishing effort of the three but he, too, had been set an impossible task in bridging a sizeable gap to a Classic-winning rival.
All three are apparently on course for a rematch at Goodwood in the Sussex Stakes.
Should they meet again, it seems logical to suggest that Aidan O'Brien – trainer of The Gurkha – and Prendergast will defy their respective jockeys to give Dettori an inch of advantage in the race.
That being the case, we genuinely should be treated to a mile-contest befitting the billing of 'race of the season'.
Many observers felt that Moore was far from his imperious best at Ascot, with veteran Dettori laying down a significant challenge across the five days. Hayes, the young pretender, has a mount of seriously high profile and a chance to take down two of the game's finest in a top level contest.
The feeling persists that The Gurkha was the horse that left Ascot with a hard-luck story.
Denied a clear run at the furlong marker, Moore's mount was closing all the way to the line but had been simply left with too much to do on that occasion.
The chance to level the score at Goodwood is on the horizon and given Moore's disdain for defeat, there seems to be every chance that he and The Gurkha can eradicate the ghosts of Ascot.
Galileo Gold's exploits this season have seen him already take in three gruelling Group 1 contests.

From a pure theatre perspective, it will be great to see all three protagonists at their best, but it could prove that a tough season for Galileo Gold must catch up somewhere and that is another reason to believe The Gurkha will be primed to pounce when Goodwood rolls around.

Friday, June 24, 2016

4.05 Curragh 1 Mile Celebration Stakes (Listed Race )

Another busy Saturday with seven meetings in UK & Ireland .For the blogs best bet ,we go to Ireland for decent looking 1 mile listed contest at 4.05 .

11 runners declared for Celebration Stakes at the Curragh .The three main contenders are Cougar Mountain , Sovereign Dept & Foxtrot Charlie .

COUGAR MOUNTAIN : Won 2 out 14 ,including winning G3 Desmond Stakes at Leopardstown in August .Also finished good 2ND in G3 Amethyst Stakes at Leopardstown last month .Not the most consistent sort ,though will be suited dropping into listed company .

SOVEREIGN DEPT : Likeable 7-Y-0 gelding ,winning 8 out 40 also finished second 15 times ,including winning this race last year in good style .Also finished creditable 2ND in Ganton Listed stakes at York last time .Has decent record in listed company (222411124) . Should go well with ideal conditions .

FOXTROT CHARLIE : Lightly raced 3-Y-0 colt ,winning 2 out 3 ,including winning Glencairn listed stakes at Leopardstown last time .This looks much stronger race ,though looks open to plenty improvement ,after just three starts for top connections .

VERDICT : Last years winner SOVEREIGN DEBT looks solid here,has decent record in listed company ,including finishing good second last time, in good quality listed race at York.Also goes well in Ireland ,winning 3 out 6 . Odds around 9-2 look good each-way value .

Foxtrot Charlie looks the main danger ,after winning listed race last time at Leopardstown and looks open to more improvement .

SOVEREIGN DEBT 4.05 CURRAGH
£50.00 EACH-WAY @ 9-2 CORALS*
(SECOND SP 3-1JF PROFIT +£6.25)

Sunday, June 19, 2016

3.40 Pontefract 12F Castle Stakes (Listed Race )

Nice to finish Royal Ascot with winner,Twilight Son winning thrilling Diamond Jubilee stakes in close finish ,though so far not one best of months ,hopefully we can finish the month strongly .

On Sunday we have decent looking listed contest at Pontefract, over 1M 4F at 3.40 . 9 runners declared for £40,000 guaranteed Castle Stakes . Not most competitive listed contest with the two standout contenders Barsanti & Sweeping Up .

BARSANTI : Progressive 4-Y-0 gelding ,winning last three starts ,including winning decent class two handicap at York last time ,off mark 96 .Lightly raced sort and looks open to more improvement .Takes step up in class ,though should go well in listed company .

SWEEPING UP : Consistent 5-Y-0 mare ,winning 2 out 15 ,also finished 2ND six times .Been in good form this season, finishing second on both starts,including finishing good second in group three Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock last time ,behind the useful John Gosden trained Journey.Should go well returning to listed company .

VERDICT : Barsanti looks very progressive sort ,winning last three starts. Has been very well supported in the market ,though is taking step up in class , and top price of 11-10 looks too short .

At the prices SWEEPING UP looks the each-way value .Has been knocking on door in group three and listed company ,including finishing creditable 2ND last time in G3 Pinnacle stakes .Odds around 9-2 look decent value .


SWEEPING UP 3.40 PONTEFRACT 
£40.00 EACH-WAY @ 9-2 BETVICTOR* .WILLIAM HILLS* 
(UNPLACED SP 4-1 LOSS £80.00 ) 

Saturday, June 18, 2016

4.20 Royal Ascot 6F Diamond Jubilee Stakes Group 1

Final day at Royal Ascot ,with the feature race the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at 4.20 .This looks cracking sprint with the three main contenders Magical Memory , The Tin Man & Twilight Son .

MAGICAL MEMORY : Progressive 4-Y-0 gelding ,winning 6 out 15.Been in excellent form this season winning both starts the G3 Abernant stakes & G2 Duke of York stakes . Had three these rivals behind at York last time . Obvious claims ,seems to handle any ground conditions .

THE TIN MAN : Lightly raced 4-Y-0 gelding , winning 4 out 7 ,including winning on seasonal reappearance in listed race at Windsor last time .Showed some decent form last season ,including finishing good 4TH over C&D in G1 British Champions Sprint .Looks open to improvement .

TWILIGHT SON :High class 4-Y-0 colt ,winning 5 out 7 .Showed some useful form last season ,including winning G1 sprint cup at Haydock in September .Also finished excellent 2ND over C&D in G1 British Champions Sprint ,had The Tin Man back in 4TH .Slightly disappointing last time ,when finishing 4TH behind Magical Memory ,though faced no easy task trying concede weight all round on seasonal reappearance.Should improve for that race ,with conditions to suit .

VERDICT : TWILIGHT SON can reverse form with Magical Memory on 5LB better terms.Had previously beaten that rival three times last season .Trainer Henry Candy had reported his horse would need the race on seasonal reappearance .Looks sure improve for that race, and will be suited better by this easier ground . Odds around 4-1 look solid each-way value .

Magical Memory still looks the main danger ,has looked an improved performer this season , when winning both starts and has to be respected . 

TWILIGHT SON 4.20 ROYAL ASCOT
£50 EACH-WAY @ 4-1 BET365 
(WINNERS SP 7-2 PROFIT +£250.00 )

Monday, June 13, 2016

Royal Ascot Day One (Queen Anne Stakes & King Stand Stakes )

Day one at ROYAL ASCOT with two recommended bets at Berkshire track .The 1 mile Queen Anne Stakes & five furlong King Stand Stakes ,look the two most interesting races on day one .

14 runners declared for G1 Queen Anne Stakes over 1 mile .This looks cracking contest for four year old's and upwards . There has been plenty of rain about at Ascot ,with ground conditions now described as (good/soft) soft in places .The three main contenders look to be BELARDO , ENDLESS DRAMA & ERVEDYA .

BELARDO :Useful 4-Y-0 colt ,winning 5 out 15 ,including winning two G1 races ,showed some useful form last season,including finishing excellent 2ND behind the useful SOLOW in QE11 over C&D at Ascot on Champions day.Returned to form last time,winning G1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury in good style.Should go well with ideal conditions.

ENDLESS DRAMA : Lightly raced 4-Y-0, only had five starts.Winning 1 out 5 (also placed 4 times ) Had some useful form last season ,including finishing good 2ND in Irish 2000 guineas behind Gleneagles .Also made promising reappearance ,after year off the track in Lockinge stakes behind Belardo .Should come on for that run ,each-way claims .

ERVEDYA : High class French filly ,winning 7 out 11 ,including winning three G1 races last season .Showed useful form when winning G1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last season ,beating Found .Slightly disappointing on seasonal reappearance when beaten odds on favourite at Saint Cloud ,though will improve for the race .

VERDICT : BELARDO looks to have ideal conditions here (Straight Mile on easy ground ) Looked impressive when winning the G1 Lockinge at Newbury last month over straight mile .Also ran one his best races when finishing excellent 2ND over C&D in Queen Elizabeth II stakes.Odds around 9-2 look solid each-way value .

Ervedya looks the main danger on pick last seasons form ,including winning here at Royal Ascot in Coronation Stakes.Ground conditions will also suit the French Filly.

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 21 runners declared for G1 King Stand Stakes over 5 furlongs .Big field for this G1 sprint ,though not as competitive as numbers may suggest . The three main contenders are Profitable ,Mecca's Angel & Acapulco .

PROFITABLE : Progressive 4-Y-0 colt ,winning 4 out 14 .Showed improved form this season winning both starts in group company ,including winning G2 Temple Stakes at Haydock last time ,beating Mecca's Angel by neck. Each-way claims,though wouldn't want ground too soft .

MECCA'S ANGEL : High class 5-Y-0 mare , winning 8 out 15 ,Goes particularly well on easy ground ,including winning the G1 Nunthorpe at York in August on G/S.Slightly disappointing on seasonal reappearance  in Temple Stakes when a beaten odds on favourite ,behind Profitable,though should improve for the race. Obvious claims with conditions to suit .

ACAPULCO : Decent American sprinter , winning 3 out 5 ,including winning G2 Queen Mary Stakes at Ascot in good style last season .Finished creditable 2ND in Nunthorpe at York as 2-Y-0 last season ,showing plenty of speed .Looks open to plenty improvement ,though ground conditions may not suit .

VERDICT :  MECCA'S ANGEL stands out with ground conditions in her favour .Looked very impressive when giving 24LB to Acapulco and two lengh beating in G1 Nunthorpe stakes at York last August .Will improve for first run of the season, and can reverse form with Profitable on this soft ground .Odds around 5-2 look solid value .

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ROYAL ASCOT DAY ONE BETS :

BELARDO 2.30 ROYAL ASCOT 
£50.00 EACH-WAY @ 9-2 BET365 
(SECOND SP 9-2 PROFIT +£6.25 )


MECCA'S ANGEL 3.45 ROYAL ASCOT  
£100.00 WIN @ 5-2 BET365
(UNPLACED SP 6-4 LOSS -£100.00)

Saturday, June 11, 2016

3.45 Salisbury 6F Cathedral Stakes (Listed Race )


On Sunday the blog returns ,for decent looking sprint listed race at Salisbury with £42,000 guaranteed for 6 furlong Cathedral Stakes .

12 runners declared for quality looking listed race at Salisbury, on ground described as good to firm (heavy showers forecast ) The three main contenders are Danzeno ,Don't Touch & Strath Burn .

DANZENO : Useful 5-Y-0 sprinter ,winning 4 out 14 .Showed some useful form last season ,including finishing excellent 3RD in group one British Champions Stakes at Ascot in October ,behind the useful Muhaarar.Also finished creditable 3RD on seasonal reappearance in group two Duke York Stakes last month .Obvious claims now dropping into listed company .Won't mind any rain .

DON'T TOUCH : Decent 4-Y-0 sprinter ,winning 6 out 7 , including winning the Ayr Gold Cup back in September off mark 101 . Bit disappointing on seasonal reappearance ,when only finishing 5TH of seven in group two Greenlands Stakes at Curragh ,when short price favourite .Will be suited dropping down in class ,though needs to bounce back .

STRATH BURN :Won twice last season including winning group three at Newbury in July ,though ran his best race ,when finishing close 2ND in group one sprint cup at Haydock in September ,behind Twilight Son.Slightly disappointing on seasonal reappearance when finishing 4TH of 10 in 6F listed race at Windsor,behind The Tin Man ,though should improve for the race .

 VERDICT : DANZENO looks solid here ,dropping down into listed company.Has been running well in most top sprints over the last 12 months ,including finishing good 3RD at York in group two company last month and seems to handle any ground .Odds around 4-1 look very fair value


DANZENO 3.45 SALISBURY 
£50.00 EACH-WAY @ 4-1 BETVICTOR* .PADDY POWER *
(SECOND SP 5-2 LOSS £12.00 ) R4 5P IN £
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MISTER SUNSHINE 4:20 SALISBURY

Hi Guys, great to guest post on Jerry's Best Bets. A few of you may have noticed I am a contributor [Jason Coote] on this great website but this is my first post and unsurprisingly it is about two-year-old racing.

The Toby Balding Memorial Novice Stakes (Plus 10) is over 6f on good to firm. Ten juveniles line up and with win prize money of £19,700 for those legible for the bonus this is a serious purse. One colt stands out. MISTER SUNSHINE won in comfortable fashion at Brighton last time out and even carrying a penalty this son of Fast Company must go well. Clive Cox is a superb trainer and this athletic horse will relish this tougher test. Many may have considered this April foal a candidate for Royal Ascot but I imagine Cox has been waiting for this race as a viable alternative to the big meeting which doesn't often do two-year-olds any favours and can sour a few. The main opposition may come from those with experience although I was slightly disappointed by Davarde and Diable D'Or on their last starts. Interesting to see Richard Hughes fields Curve Ball who races in the same colours as Ivawood for Carmicheal Jennings who cost £65,00 at the yearling sales. Hughes is yet to field a winning juvenile. Zebby Sizz is likely to be the strongest of the debutantes for Richard Hannon and a £50,000 yearling buy.


MISTER SUNSHINE 4.20 SALISBURY 
MISTER SUNSHINE @9/4 (HORSE RACING ODDS AT WILLIAM HILL)


Friday, June 03, 2016

6.00 Curragh 6F Ballyogan Stakes (Fillies & Mares ) (Sat 4th June )

Disappointing result on Friday,with Scrutineer fading to finish fifth in 7 furlong Surrey Stakes listed race at Epsom .Having looked all over the winner with two furlongs to run,though seem  go for home bit too early,fading badly inside the last 100 yds.In fact trading as short as 1-5 in running on betfair .

Nevermind moving to Saturday we have Derby day at Epsom ,though not easy to find any value bets at Epsom, with some very competitive races ,with the Derby looking very difficult race .

For blogs best bet on Saturday ,we go to Ireland for decent looking 6 furlong group three contest at the Curragh .

9 runners declared for quality looking group 3 Ballyogan Stakes at Curragh ,on ground described as good/firm.The three main contenders look to be Fort Del Oro ,Only Mine & Marsha.

FORT DEL ORO :Useful 4-Y-0 filly,winning 3 out 7,including winning two listed races .Won in good style on seasonal reappearance in 5 furlong listed race at Navan in April,though very disappointing last time when finishing last of seven in 6F group 2 at Curragh ,though didn't seem handle soft ground.Needs to bounce back,though will be suited by this better ground.

ONLY MINE : Progressive 3-Y-0 filly ,winning 3 out 9 .Produced career best effort ,when winning the G3 Lacken Stakes at Naas last time ,beating Washington DC in good style .Also won listed race at Newmarket last October on soft ground .Has 3LB group three penalty ,though has solid claims .

MARSHA : Consistent sort ,winning 2 out 5 ,also been placed three times.Finished fair third in 5F listed race at Dundalk in October ,behind the useful Take Cover .Made promising seasonal reappearance in decent class two handicap at Newmarket last time ,finishing close 2ND ,off mark 95 .Will need more improvement to win G3 contest .

VERDICT : FORT DEL ORO can bounce back to form on this better ground.Had previously shown some useful form in listed company and clearly didn't handle testing conditions last time.Also goes well here at the Curragh ,winning twice over C&D .Odds around 7-2 look solid value .

Only Mine looks the main danger ,after winning in group three company last time ,though won't find it easy under penalty and takes on older sprinters for first time .

FORT DEL ORO 6.00 CURRAGH
£60.00 WIN @ 7-2 WILLIAM HILLS* & PADDY POWER*  
(SECOND SP 11-4 LOSS £60.00 )    

Thursday, June 02, 2016

5.15 Epsom 7F Surrey Stakes (Listed Race ) Fri 3rd June

On Friday we see start of the two day Epsom Derby meeting ,with the feature race on Friday the group one Epsom Oaks at 4.30 .

Not an easy first day at Epsom to find value bets,with ground conditions likely to be testing,after 27mm rain since Tuesday .For blogs best bet ,we will concentrate on one the supporting races the 7 furlong Surrey Listed stakes at 5.15 .

8 runners declared for the 7 furlong 3-Y-0 Surrey Stakes .Not bad looking 3-Y-0 Listed contest at Epsom, with the three main contenders being Haalick ,Calder Prince & Scrutineer .

HAALICK : Progressive sort ,winning 2 out 6 ,including winning 7F Spring Cup listed race on poly track at Lingfield in March .Also finished very creditable 2ND in 7F Greatwood Handicap stakes at Goodwood last time ,off mark 101 .Should go well ,if handling this softer ground .

CALDER PRINCE : Won first two starts as 2-Y-0 at Pontefract & Chelmsford ,no show on turf at Meydan in two starts ,though bounced back to form last time at Haydock when making all to win 7F class 3 handicap on soft ground ,off mark 94 .Needs to show more improvement ,though will be suited ground conditions .

SCRUTINEER :Consistent type,winning 2 out 6 (both wins on softish ground )Shown solid form this season ,including finishing good 2ND in Listed Free Handicap at Newmarket ,behind the useful Ibn Malik ,on easy ground .Also finished fair 3RD in King Charles 11 stakes at Newmarket last time (unsuited by G/F ground)  .Should go well ,with ground conditions sure to suit .

VERDICT : The Roger Varian trained Haalick will be popular here,after finishing excellent 2ND in quality class two handicap at Goodwood last time off top weight,though has to concede weight all round here.Has to be respected ,though is unproven on ground this soft, and odds around 13-8  look poor value .

SCRUTINEER looks the each-way value here ,having shown solid form in listed company this season .Will be suited by this soft ground,having shown all his best form with plenty of give in  ground .Odds around 5-1 look very fair value .

SCRUTINEER 5.15 EPSOM 
£50.00 EACH-WAY @ 5-1 BETVICTOR* & CORALS*
(UNPLACED SP 3-1 LOSS £100.00 )