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Friday, October 14, 2016

British Champions Day Preview

Not been the best runs for the blog recently ,with only one winner from 10 bets ,with both August & September losing months .

Saying that the blog is still showing nice (£2221 profit on the year ) ( 20 winners from 60 bets ) (33% STRIKE RATE ) (with 40.45 % ROI ) 

On Saturday we have excellent Card at Ascot for British Champions day .Going preview the card with my recommended bets .

Race One on the card is the Long Distance Cup at 1.25  over 2 miles .10 runners declared for this group two contest .The three main contenders are Forgotten Rules , Order Of St George & Simple Verse .

FORGOTTEN RULES : Useful stayer on his day , winning 3 out 8 ,including winning this race back in 2014 , Made satisfactory reappearance last month ,finishing 2ND in 2 mile listed race at Curragh .Each-way claims,though has plenty to find with Order Of St George on last years Irish St Leger.Best form on soft ground .

ORDER OF ST GEORGE : High class 4-Y-0 stayer ,winning 7 out 14 , including winning Ascot Gold Cup at Royal Ascot in June .Also finished excellent 3RD in Prix De L ' Arc Triomphe last time ,behind stablemate Found .Will be suited returning to this longer trip .Seems to handle any ground.

SIMPLE VERSE : Useful 4-Y-0 Filly , winning 6 out 12 ,including winning five times in 2015 ,also winning the St Leger . Had looked disappointing in three starts this season ,though bounced back to form last time ,winning the group two Park Hill stakes .Should be suited by this longer trip . Best form on good ground.

VERDICT : Order Of St George, is clearly the one to beat on form and official ratings ,though odds around 4-5 look very short ,having already been turned over at 1/7 in Irish St Leger.

At the prices SIMPLE VERSE looks solid each-way play ,she looked back to her best last time at Doncaster, when winning the Park Hill stakes .Also looks open to more improvement over this longer trip .Odds around 11-2 look very fair value .

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Race two on the card, is the Champions Sprint over 6 furlongs .10 runners declared for cracking group one contest . The three main contenders are Twilight Son, Shalaa & Quiet Reflection .

TWILIGHT SON : 4-Y-0 colt ,winning 6 out 9 ,including winning the group one Diamond Jubilee stakes at Royal Ascot in June .Very disappointing last time in July Cup at Newmarket , though looked unsuited by very fast ground . Needs to bounce back after poor run ,though did finish excellent 2ND in this race last year .Best form on G/S ground .

SHALAA :  3-Y-0 colt , winning his last six starts ,including winning two group 1 races last season .Returned after injury, to win group three contest at Ascot last time, on soft ground.Trainer John Gosden reported the colt only 80% fit that day ,will need show more improvement , though looks very interesting contender .Best form on good or G/F ground .

QUIET REFLECTION : 3-Y-0 Filly ,winning 7 out 9 .Been in great form this season , winning four times ,including winning the group one Sprint Cup at Haydock last time.Also won over C&D in group one Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.Should go well ,any rain will suit .

VERDICT : TWILIGHT SON will need to bounce back after poor run in July cup, though had previously looked very useful ,winning both the group one Sprint Cup & Diamond Jubilee Stakes.Also finished excellent 2ND in this race last year .Odds around 7-1 look good each-way value .

Quiet Reflection has done nothing wrong this season ,and looks obvious danger ,after winning the group one sprint cup last time at Haydock ,though odds around 3-1 look short enough in very hot contest . 




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Race three, the group one fillies & mares over 1M 4F .14 runners declared for competitive looking contest . The three main contenders are Journey , Zhukova & Seventh Heaven .

JOURNEY : 4-Y-0 Filly ,winning 5 out 12 .Showed improved form since stepping up to 1M 4F winning 3 out 4 (1121 ). Been in decent form this season ,winning in group three & listed company .Also finished excellent 2ND in this race last year , behind Simple Verse . Solid each-way claims .Best form on good ground .

ZHUKOVA : 4-Y-0 Filly , winning 5 out 7 .Showed improved form this season winning 3 out 3 ,including winning two group 3 races .Showed career best effort last time ,when winning the Enterprise Stakes at Leopardstown ,beating Epsom Derby runner up US Army Ranger .Looks open to more improvement .Best form on good or softer .

SEVENTH HEAVEN : 3-Y-0 Filly ,winning 4 out 7 .Showed massive improvement this season since stepping up to 1M 4F.Looked very impressive when winning the Yorkshire Oaks last time ,beating Arc winner Found in good style .Looks sure go well ,receiving 7LB of her main rivals.Best form on good ground .

VERDICT : Dual group one winner SEVENTH HEAVEN stands out on form ,having won the Yorkshire Oaks in great style .That form looks outstanding ,with the 2ND Found going on to win the ARC next time .Odds around 2-1 look solid value .

Of the others. Journey looks the main danger ,having finished excellent 2ND in this race last year .Looks sure run her race and looks solid each-way option .
 


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 Race 4 on the card is the group one Queen Elizabeth stakes over 1 mile .13 runners declared for cracking contest for 1 mile championship .The two standout contenders are Ribchester & Minding .

RIBCHESTER : 3-Y-0 Colt , winning 3 out 8 .Hasn't stopped improving this year ,since ,finishing third in 2000 guineas at Newmarket .Won high quality group one contest at Deauville last time ,beating the useful French colt Vadamos .That form has been boosted ,with Vadamos winning the group one Prix Du Moulin next time.Obvious claims with conditions to suit .Best form on G/S or Soft ground ,though handles good ground .

MINDING : 3-Y-0 Filly ,winning 7 out 11 ,including six group one races ,which also includes the 1000 guineas and the Epsom Oaks .Finished creditable 3RD in Irish Champions stakes at Leopardstown last time.Solid claims,though this drop back in trip doesn't look ideal .Best form on G/S ground ,though seems handle any ground .

VERDICT : RIBCHESTER looks very solid ,having produced career best effort last time in France .Looks to have ideal conditions here ,1 mile on easy ground . Odds around 11-4 look decent value .

Minding looks obvious danger ,going for her seventh group one success ,though there has to be question mark dropping back to 1 mile ,for first time since getting beat in Irish 1000 guineas .

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Race 5 on the card, is the British Champion Stakes over 10 furlongs.11 runners declared for the feature race on the Ascot Card .The three main contenders are Fascinating Rock , Found & Almanzor .

FASCINATING ROCK : 5-Y-0 entire,winning 8 out 15 , including winning this race last year .Been lightly raced this season, though did win the group one Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh in May ,beating Found by 2.5 lenghs .Has missed a few engagements recently ,though looks to be saved for this.Any rain will help .Best form on G/S or soft .

FOUND : 4-Y-0 Filly ,winning 6 out 19 ,also finished second 10 times.Been in excellent form this season ,including winning Prix De L 'Arc De Triomphe at Chantilly last time .Also finished good 2ND in this race last year .Should go well ,looks closely matched with Fascinating Rock & Almanzor .Best form on good ground .

ALMANZOR : 3-Y-0 French colt ,winning 7 out 9 ,including winning the French Derby & Irish Champion Stakes .Showed top class form last time ,winning the Irish Champion stakes in good style .Missed the Prix De L ' Arc De Triomphe for this race.Obvious claims ,best form on G/S ground .

 VERDICT : Almanzor looks the one to beat ,having won the Irish Champion stakes in good style , though on 2LB worse terms ,doesn't have much in hand with Found.Odds around 13/8 look short enough,for horse that will need luck in running ,coming from well off the pace .

Last years winner FASCINATING ROCK should go well .Looks to have been saved for the race.Showed top class form when winning the group one Tattersalls Gold Cup, beating Found comfortably back in May .Will be fresher than most ,having only had the three starts this season .Odds around 8-1 look solid E/W value .

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BRITISH CHAMPIONS DAY RECOMMENDED BETS

SIMPLE VERSE 1.30 ASCOT 
£25.00 EACH-WAY @ 11-2 PADDY POWER
(THIRD SP 6-1 PROFIT £5.00 )
  
TWILIGHT SON 2.00 ASCOT
£30.00 EACH-WAY @ 7-1 BET365
(UNPLACED SP 5-1 LOSS £60.00 ) 

SEVENTH HEAVEN 2.35 ASCOT
£80.00 WIN @ 15-8 BETVICTOR 
(UNPLACED SP 5-4F LOSS £80.00 )  

RIBCHESTER 3.10 ASCOT  (NAP)
£100.00 WIN @ 11-4 BETFRED
(SECOND SP 7-2 LOSS £100.00 )

FASCINATING ROCK 3.45 ASCOT
£25.00 EACH-WAY @ 8-1 BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK*
(NON RUNNER )
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(STAKED £290) (RETURN £55) ( LOSS £235 )

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