Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Thursday 29th January Cape Verdi Group 2 bet

On Thursday we go to Dubai for 1 mile Fillies & Mares group two contest on the turf at Meydan .


4.30 MEYDAN 1 MILE FILLIES & MARES CAPE VERDI GROUP 2:
8 Runners declared for group two Cape Verdi over 1 mile on the turf .Not the strongest looking group two fillies & mares contest at Meydan . The two main contenders are Cladocera & Slipper Orchid .

CLADOCERA : Lightly raced French filly ,winning 2 from 5 starts ,including listed race at Longchamp over 1 mile back in June .Returned to form in November in 1 mile listed race on the poly track at Kempton ,finishing close second behind useful Jeremy Noseda trained Sloane Street .Obvious claims in weak looking race .

SLIPPER ORCHID : Improving Irish mare ,winning 7 from 24 starts .Won four times last season .Seemed to show improved form in cheekpieces at the end last season  .Ran eye catching fifth last time at Meydan over C&D, from poor draw.Finishing strongly from well off the pace in decent looking handicap .Should go well with conditions to suit .

VERDICT : This looks very weak fillies & mares group two contest, and on official ratings looks no better than listed contest .With highest rated 105 .

 Irish mare SLIPPER ORCHID looks the each-way value at around 5-1 mark.She won't need to improve much on her close fifth ,off mark 100 over C&D at Meydan two weeks ago.Should be spot on with that run under her belt ,with cheekpieces back on .

The main danger looks to be the French Filly Cladocera who has shown decent form in Listed company and looks open to plenty improvement after just five starts .

SLIPPER ORCHID 4.30 MEYDAN 
£50.00 EACH-WAY @ 5-1 PADDY POWER 

(UNPLACED SP 4-1 LOSS £100.00)

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Wednesday 21st January Ladbrokes Handicap Bet .

One bet for Wednesday ,we go too Lingfield for interesting looking seven furlong handicap at 2.30.


2.30 LINGFIELD 7 FURLONG 0-85 LADBROKE HANDICAP :
8 runners declared for 0-85 class 4 handicap on poly track at Lingfield . Not the most competitive handicap with just two main contenders Evening Attire & Mr Bossy Boots .

EVENING ATTIRE :Won twice for David Brown as two year old back in 2013 .Returned to form in December for William Stone , finishing good second  in class 4 handicap over C&D at Lingfield, behind the progressive Shyron . Should go well off 1LB higher mark .

MR BOSSY BOOTS : Lightly raced 4-Y-0 ,winning twice from four starts ,including winning 0-80 handicap at Wolverhampton in August, off mark 77. Finished third last time off 4LB higher mark when favourite for 7 furlong handicap at Wolverhampton, behind the progressive pair Rich Again & Shyron .Obvious claims off the same mark .

VERDICT : The lightly raced Mr Bossy Boots will be popular here,having  looked progressive sort after just four starts , though On form lines has nothing in hand of Evening Attire at these weights .Should go well ,though Looks poor value at around 11-10 .

At the prices EVENING ATTIRE looks solid each-way bet, against the short price favourite .Having returned to form on his last two starts at Lingfield, and not beaten far by the progressive Shyron last time .Odds around 4-1 look fair value .


EVENING ATTIRE 2.30 LINGFIELD
£50.00 EACH-WAY @ 4-1 BET365*
(SECOND SP 5-2 LEVEL )

Non runner Saint Pois 7 ran .



*Best price guarantee

Thursday, January 15, 2015

The Blog Returns for 6th year with fresh approach for 2015

Looking back at 2014 ,not the most successful year for the blog, with just £546.00 /5.46 pts profit on the year (13 winners from 51 bets) ROI +11.11% 

Having started the year well ,things tailed off badly in second half of the year, though having to deal with sudden family bereavement in August didn't help matters,probably a mistake continuing the blog selections ,when your mind is not focused on horse racing .

On positive note this was the fifth consecutive winning year for the blog, with total profits £8814 / 88.14 points  bets since the blog started in February 2010 .Hopefully 2015 will be much better year on all fronts .

In the past I have focused on non handicap flat races for the blog selections  ,though finding value selections has got more and more difficult over last two seasons ,with small fields being major problem for each-way bets in non handicap races, especially on the All Weather .

From 2015 I will be making changes to the blog, and concentrating mainly on handicap races and pattern races, where I hold mathematical edge,the same principal will apply, finding value each-way bets in uncompetitive races . 

For blogs first bet in 2015, we go to Lingfield for interesting looking 2 mile handicap on the poly track at 4.00 .

4.00 LINGFIELD 2 MILE 0-65 CLASS 6 HANDICAP :
9 runners declared for 2 mile 0-65 handicap at Lingfield ,not the most competitive staying handicap the three main contenders are Shadipour,Mighty Mambo & Dukes Den .

SHADARPOUR :Won three times over hurdles ,lightly raced on the All Weather though has put in two decent efforts ,including finishing short head second  in this race last year .Finished fair third in 2 mile 0-75 handicap at Kempton in November behind Strawberry Martini .Should go well off 3LB higher mark.Will also be suited dropping down too class 6 company .

MIGHTY MAMBO : Consistent sort on All Weather, with one win and 7 places from 10 starts ,won 2 mile handicap at Kempton  off mark 55 ,last February.Also finished fair second last time in 2 mile handicap at Kempton, off mark 60 .Should be thereabouts off same mark.

DUKES DEN : Won 2 mile handicap at Wolverhampton in good style back in December off mark 56 , though finished disappointing sixth, off 6LB higher mark when favourite for 2 mile handicap over C&D last time at Lingfield .Needs too bounce back in first time blinkers .


VERDICT : SHADARPOUR is better known as fair handicap hurdler ,though looks more than capable of winning 0-65 handicap on polytrack .Finished good second over C/D in this race last year and also ran creditable third in better race at Kempton in November .Can land this weak looking 2 mile handicap.Odds around 4-1 look very fair .

Mighty Mambo looks the main danger, has been knocking on the door in 2 mile handicaps  ,however is not easy horse too win with .1 out 10  on All Weather ,though still has solid each-way chance .

Of the others Takeitfromalady is surprising 7-2 favourite here,having not won for over two years and yet to win on All Weather in 11 starts ,also far from certain to stay this 2 mile trip.


SHADARPOUR 4.00 LINGFIELD 
£50.00 EACH-WAY @ 4-1 BET365* 
(UNPLACED SP 7-2 LOSS £100.00)