Friday, February 28, 2014

Saturday 1st March 32 Red Condition Stakes Bet !!!

On Saturday for day's main bet we go to Lingfield for good looking 2 mile conditions race on poly track at 4.35 .This race is fast track qualifier for finals day on Friday 18th April at Lingfield ,so it's race well worth winning .

4.35 LINGFIELD 32 RED 2 MILE CONDITION STAKES :
11 runners declared for £25,000 32Red 2 mile condition stakes  at Lingfield ,this looks quite competitive looking staying event with the three main contenders .Castilo Del Diablo,Litigant & Ted Spread .

CASTILO DEL DIABLO :Progressive 5 year old gelding on poly track .Won 12 furlong class two handicap at Lingfield in January beating the useful filly Modernstone by neck off mark 95 .Also ran creditable second behind Modernstone last time in 12 furlong conditions race at Lingfield ,trying to concede 6LB.However is unproven over this longer trip .

LITIGANT :Promising sort for Andre Fabre back in 2011 winning two condition races over 11 & 14 furlongs .Changed hands very cheaply at Doncaster sales in 2012 for £18,500 .Finished eyecatching second on his first start for Seamus Durack in 11 furlong class two handicap at Kempton in November .Followed that with impressive performance at Wolvehampton last time winning 14 furlong handicap off mark 90 .Still very lightly raced and looks open to plenty improvement .

TED SPREAD :Decent sort for Mark Tompkins back in 2010 ,including winning in group 3 company .Lost his way on flat after that and was switched to the hurdles ,winning handicap hurdle for Paul Nicholls in 2012.Finished very creditable third on his first start on flat for Suzy Smith in January ,only beaten half lengh by useful Arch Villian over C&D in course record time .Each-way claims with conditions to suit .

VERDICT: Castilo Del Diablo has highest official rating (98),after winning decent 12 furlong handicap at Lingfield in January ,though there has to be major doubt about this longer trip.Having been well beaten on both starts over 14 + furlongs last season on the turf .

The lightly raced LITIGANT looks open to plenty more improvement after just five starts .Was impressive winner last time in 14 furlong handicap at Wolverhampton .The longer trip shouldn't be problem here and looks the one to beat .Odds around 3-1 look good value .

Of the others Ted Spread could go well at decent odds after running very good third last time over C&D in course record time .

LITIGANT 4.35 LINGFIELD
£50 EACH-WAY @ 3-1  BET365* & LADBROKES 
(WINNER SP 2-1 PROFIT £180.00)


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Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Thursday 27th February Zabeel Mile Group Two Bet !!


5.00 MEYDAN  ZABEEL MILE GROUP TWO TURF:
Eight runners declared for feature race at Meydan the group two £150,000 Zabeel Mile on the turf at Meydan.This looks decent little group two contest with the three main contenders : Mushreq ,Trade Storm & Mshawish 

MUSHREQ : Been in good form at this years carnival, winning 9 furlong listed race at Meydan in January beating  Gabrial in good style .Also finished close second behind stablemate Mujaarib in group two Al Rashidiya last time in fast time .Looks sure go well under similar conditions.

TRADE STORM : Good record at Meydan last season winning twice ,including winning this race last year beating the useful Mike De kock trained Musir in good style .However probably ran his best race finishing fourth in Group one Dubai Duty Free at Meydan . Will need to bounce back after poor run last time at Meydan .

MSHAWISH : Had some fair form last season ,including finishing decent fourth in G1 St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot behind Dawn Approach .Finished good second behind Anearobia in G2 Al Fahidi on first start this season at Meydan .

VERDICT :Mushreq has solid form in this grade and has obvious claims after just getting touched off last time in G2 at Meydan .However on official ratings has very little in hand and there looks better value elsewhere .

Last years winner TRADE STORM rates as the each-way value here ,can be forgiven for poor run last time at Meydan .Not given hard race after meeting trouble in running and normally improves a lot for first run of the season .Had some excellent form last season at Meydan,including finishing ahead of Mushreq in G1 Dubai Duty Free.Odds around 4-1 look fair each-way value. 

Of the others Mshawish can't be ruled out after finishing promising second last time at Meydan in group two company .Should come on for that run ,though top price 3-1 doesn't look great value for horse yet to win in group company .

TRADE STORM 5.00 MEYDAN
£50.00 EACH-WAY @ 4-1 BET365*
(SECOND SP 3-1 LOSS £5.00)
(10P R4 TO EARLY PRICES )

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Sunday, February 23, 2014

Weekly Results Round Up!!!

After poor run of results recently ,its nice to finally have profitable week with £140.00 profit ,with one winner from two bets .

The first bet was on Thursday at Meydan in Dubai Millenium 10 furlong Listed stakes on Saeed Bin Suroor trained filly TASADAY ,who looked fair bet taking big drop in class.£50.00 each-way at 4-1 with Betvictor was the bet.

TASADAY was given good positive ride by Silvestre De Sousa sitting close to the pace and kicking for home early in straight and held on well in closing stages winning by neck, from German raider Empoli .With £240.00 profit on the race .

The second bet was on Saturday in Winter Derby Trial at Lingfield over 10 furlongs on ROBIN HOODS BAY who looked solid each-way bet with Bet365 again £50.00 each-way was the bet.

ROBIN HOODS BAY ,was huge drifter in market going off 7-1, this turned into frustrating race as he could never find clear run, till it was all too late, finishing strongly inside final furlong for never nearer fourth only beaten two lenghs, behind the heavily backed favorite Grandeur .Disappointing result there as that should been profitable race. £100.00 loss on the race .

Overall February has been bit of frustrating month with few hard luck stories ,though not too much damage done and hopefully we can finish the month with flourish .

 RESULTS ROUND UP :

 ON THE WEEK :
2 BETS ) 1 WINNER ) 1 UNPLACED ) PROFIT £140.00

AFTER WEEK EIGHT :
13 BETS )4 WINNERS) 3 SECONDS) 6 UNPLACED )
PROFIT £375.00

RETURN ON INVESTMENT 2014:
STAKED £1300.00 ) RETURN £1675.00) ROI +28.86%



Friday, February 21, 2014

Saturday February 22nd Winter Derby Trial Bet !!!


(Robin Hoods Bay looks solid each-way bet in feature race at Lingfield)

On Saturday we have top quality card from Lingfield featuring two good looking listed races.Going concentrate on day's feature race at Lingfield the Winter Derby Trial at 3.30

10 runners declared for Winter Derby trial over 10 furlongs at Lingfield .This looks cracking listed race with the three main contenders: Grandeur ,Chookie Royal & Robin Hoods Bay .

3.30 LINGFIELD 10F WINTER DERBY TRIAL LISTED RACE:
GRANDEUR : High quality 5 year old gelding, winning 7 from 17 on turf ,including winning five times in 2012 .Campaigned in some the top international races over last two seasons,winning twice in Group two company in America.Only win in 2013 came in 10 furlong listed race at Goodwood,though also finished excellent second in Sky Bet Group two stakes at York in July, behind the useful Mukhadram.Should go well dropping back into listed company  .

CHOOKIE ROYAL :Very consistent 6 year old gelding ,with excellent record on poly track (113122221) ,impressive winner last time winning 8.5 furlong small conditions race at Wolverhampton by 7 lenghs .However takes step up in class here, and will need career best effort to win strong looking listed race .

ROBIN HOODS BAY : Bounced back to form last time winning strong looking class 2 handicap over C&D at Lingfield off mark 100 ,in good time (0.27 fast),that looked particularly good effort having come widest off all in the straight .Also finished very creditable second in group 3 Winter Derby last March ,only beaten half lengh by Farraj in course record time.

VERDICT :Grandeur has obvious claims here being 7LB clear on official ratings and would be very difficult to beat if reproducing his solid group two turf form.However this will be his first start for nearly three months and has to prove he can handle poly track .At top price 6-4 looks worth taking on .

At the prices ROBIN HOODS BAY looks the each-way value here at 9-2,having ran cracker in last years group three Winter Derby over this C&D in course record time . Returned to form last time winning decent handicap over C&D off mark 100 .Has optimum conditions here and looks solid each-way bet .

 ROBINS HOOD BAY 3.30 LINGFIELD
 £50 EACH-WAY @ 9-2 BET365*  (1/4 ODDS 1-2-3 )
(UNPLACED SP 7-1 LOSS £100.00 )

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Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Thursday 20th February Dubai Millennium Stakes Bet !!!



Tasaday can return to winning ways in Dubai Millennium listed stakes.

13 runners declared for the 10 furlong Dubai Millennium listed stakes on turf .This looks decent looking listed race with the three main contenders : Mujaarib , Tasaday & Dastarhon.

6.10 MEYDAN 10F DUBAI MILLENNIUM LISTED STAKES
MUJAARIB: Shock winner last time (25-1) winning 9 furlong group two Al Rashidiya stakes at Meydan beating stablemate Mushreq in close finish,though there looked no fluke about that victory. Had previously shown some fair form in South Africa in 2012 ,winning in grade two company  .Has 4LB penalty here ,though has to be respected dropping into listed company .

TASADAY : Decent French filly  for Andre Fabre  ,winning twice in group 2 & 3 company at Deauville over 10 furlongs.Also finished placed behind the very useful filly's Treve & Dalkala in group one company .Disappointed on first start for Saeed Bin Suroor last time at Meydan after pulling hard ,though should come on for that run and has obvious claims on her French form .

DASTARHON : Had some decent form in early part 2013 ,including finishing second in French 2000 guineas at Longchamp. However had looked disappointing on last five starts in France ,returned to some kind form last time finishing fourth behind Mujaarib at Meydan.Should be suited stepping up in trip .

VERDICT : Mujaarib has obvious claims after winning group two last time over 9 furlongs and step up to 10 furlongs shouldn't be problem .However at top price 7-4 doesn't look  great value and has never looked the most consistent of performers in past .

TASADAY will need bounce back after disappointing effort last time at Meydan , though had some excellent form in France last season ,including finishing placed three times in group one company and looks more than capable of winning listed race at Meydan . Odds around 4-1 look very fair value .

TASADAY 6.10 MEYDAN 
£50 EACH-WAY @ 4-1 BET VICTOR* PADDY POWER*HILLS*
(WINNER SP 7-2 PROFIT £240.00 )

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Sunday, February 16, 2014

Weekly Results Round Up !!!

Not great start to February with another losing week ,the last few weeks have been bit disappointing.This week there was two bets with loss £113 on the week

The first bet was on Thursday in 1 mile group three Firebreak Stakes at Meydan on Fulbright .£50.00 each-way was the bet at 7-1 with Corals ,though after slow start never really threatened finishing well beaten fifth,behind the impressive winner Variety Club,who landed big gamble 3-1 into evens .  

Moving onto Friday the second bet was on inform Jubilee Brig in 7 furlong claiming stakes at Lingfield .£50.00 each-way @ 10-3 with Betvictor was the bet . Having travelled well just behind the leaders, looked likely winner turning into straight,though just got out battled in closing stages getting beaten neck by Seek The Fair Land ,for £13.00 loss on the race .

After bright start to the year with three winners from four bets  ,the last few weeks have been bit of struggle, with no winners in last seven bets, however the blog is still showing small profit on the year.Hopefully we can quickly get back on track.

RESULTS ROUND UP :


ON THE WEEK  
2 BETS ) 1 SECOND ) 1 UNPLACED ) LOSS £113.00

AFTER WEEK SEVEN 
11 BETS ) 3 WINNERS ) 3 SECONDS ) 5 UNPLACED)
PROFIT £235.00

RETURN ON INVESTMENT 
STAKED £1100.00 ) RETURN £1335.00 ) ROI +21.95%



Friday, February 14, 2014

Friday 14th February Claiming Stakes Bet !!!

For Friday's best bet we go to Lingfield for 7 furlong claiming stakes on poly track at 2.00

9 runners declared for 7 furlong claimer .Not bad little contest for this grade,with the three main contenders . Born To Surprise , Jubilee Brig & Rakaan .

2.00 LINGFIELD 7F CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 6 :
BORN TO SURPRISE : Fair sort for Michael Bell in 2012 , winning maiden & class 2 handicap at Doncaster off mark 92 .Very disappointing last season making no show in six starts .Takes big drop in class here on first start for Lee Carter .

JUBILEE BRIG :Returned to form in January finishing second in claimer over C&D behind 85 rated Mr David .Made no mistake winning weaker 6 furlong claimer at Kempton last time when odds on favourite .Subsequently claimed by Sean Curran for £10,000 .

RAKAAN :Useful sort in past for Jaime Osborne ,though nowhere near that level these days .However did win 10 furlong handicap at Lingfield in December off mark 80 ,though could only manage third in 9 furlong claimer at Wolverhampton last time .

VERDICT : Born To Surprise is clear on official ratings and takes big drop in class on first start for Lee Carter ,though showed  next to nothing last season and difficult to assess how much ability he retains .

JUBILEE BRIG has bit to find on official ratings ,though has put in two decent efforts in claiming company recently and ran well over this C&D when finishing second behind 85 rated rival .Odds around 10-3 fair value .

Of the others Rakaan can't be ruled out ,having won 10 furlong handicap in December off mark 80 , though will need bounce back after poor run last time and drop back to 7 furlongs is question mark .

JUBILEE BRIG 2.00 LINGFIELD
 £50.00 EACH-WAY @ 10-3 BETVICTOR*
(SECOND SP 3-1 LOSS £12.50)

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Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Thursday February 13th Meydan Firebreak Stakes Bet !!!

Been very quiet start to February, with very few suitable betting opportunities on All Weather.The small field sizes being the main problem, especially in non handicap races.

However on Thursday we have some top quality action at Meydan, featuring three good looking group three races. Going concentrate on  the Firebreak stakes over 1 mile .

4.30 MEYDAN 1 MILE FIREBREAK STAKES GROUP THREE:
9 runners declared for 1 mile  Firebreak Stakes on the tapeta at Meydan .This looks very interesting group three contest .The three main contenders look to be Mars , Variety Club & Fulbright .

MARS : Had some decent form for Aidan O' Brien last season including finishing sixth in both 2000 guineas and the Epsom Derby ,though probably ran his best race in 1 mile St James Palace stakes at Royal Ascot ,finishing third behind Dawn Approach .Has to be respected on first start for Mike De Kock.

VARIETY CLUB : Prolific winner in South Africa winning 14 from 19 starts ,including winning last 8 starts .Has also won four grade one races .Not easy to weigh up  the South African form  ,though has the highest official rating of 120 .

FULBRIGHT :Showed useful form for Mark Johnston winning 8 times, including winning the group two Dubai Challenge Stakes at Newmarket in 2012 ,has also shown some decent form at Meydan ,including finishing second in this race last year .

VERDICT : Variety Club could be anything having won four grade one races in South Africa,though has question marks having not ran since June .Also has to prove effective on the tapeta surface .Looks worth taking on at around 3-1 .

FULBRIGHT looks the percentage call here, having finished good second in this race last year .Won decent handicap over 7 furlongs last month at Meydan off mark 102 .Looked bit unlucky last time when finishing sixth in group two contest ,getting badly hampered at crucial stage .Odds around 7-1 look fair each-way value .

Of the others Mars would be big danger if he can reproduce last seasons group one form , though hasn't ran since July and will probably just need this race . 


FULBRIGHT 4.30 MEYDAN 
£50 EACH-WAY @ 7-1 BETFRED*,CORALS* & TOTESPORT*
(UNPLACED SP 6-1 LOSS £100.00) 


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Sunday, February 02, 2014

Weekly / Monthly Results Review !!!

Just quick review of weekly / monthly results .This has to be described as most disappointing week,with no winners from three bets for £215.00 loss .

The first bet was on Thursday on Mike De Kock trained MUSHREQ in 1 mile group two Al Rashyidyi. Having won well over C&D last time, looked decent bet to follow up in not the strongest looking group two contest .£50 each-way @ 7-2 was bet struck.Having travelled well in the race MUSHREQ looked the likely winner when getting in the clear ,however was just touched off in tight finish, by the supposedly Mike De Kock 25-1 second string.Slightly frustrating result ,though not much damage done with £15.00 loss

The second bet was on Friday in 7 furlong claiming stakes at Lingfield on KUANYAO who was unbeaten in claiming races .The bet was £50.00 each-way @ 9-2 .However put in disappointing performance ,weakening quickly in straight, having lead at half-way.Didn't look suited getting taken on for the lead in early stages.

Final bet of the week was on Sunday in 1 mile classified claiming stakes at Kempton on LARGETTO who looked the each-way value here .£50.00 each-way @ 11-2 was the bet .Having travelled well in the race,came there with every chance ,though found very little in closing stages finishing disappointing fifth behind Madadee .Though this was losing bet the favorite Exclusive Waters looked well worth taking on at such short price ,hard believe how it went off 11-10 .

WEEKLY RESULTS ROUND UP :

ON THE WEEK:
3 BETS ) 1 SECOND ) 2 UNPLACED ) LOSS £215.00)

AFTER WEEK FIVE :
9 BETS ) 3 WINNERS ) 2 SECONDS ) 4 UNPLACED )
PROFIT £348.00 

RETURN ON INVESTMENT 2014 :
STAKED £900.00 ) RETURN £1248.00 ) ROI + 38.88 )

 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  
JANUARY MONTHLY RESULTS :

1)POWERFUL PIERRE £50.00 EACH-WAY @ 3-1 (WON) PROFIT £180.00
2)SHAWKANTANGO £50.00 WIN/PLACE @ 4-1 (WON) PROFIT £223.00
3)AIN'T NO SURPRISE £50.00 EACH-WAY @ 5-1 (2ND) LEVEL
4)UNITED COLOR £50.00 EACH-WAY @ 6-1 (WON) PROFIT £360.00
5)DRAWNFROMTHEPAST £50.00 EACH-WAY @ 6-1 (UNPL) LOSS £100.00
6)THEOLOGY £50.00 EACH-WAY @ 5-1 (UNPL) LOSS £100.00
7)MUSHREQ £50.00 EACH-WAY @ 7-2 (2ND) LOSS £15.00
8)KUANYAO £50.00 EACH-WAY @ 5-1 (UNPL) LOSS £100.00


8 BETS ) 3 WINNERS ) 2 SECONDS ) 3 UNPLACED )
TOTAL PROFIT £448.00 
 
* After promising start to January ,the month seem tail off badly the last two weeks,finishing with four losing bets in a row.Saying that January has never been one my better months.So £448 profit is always welcome in January . 
 


Sunday 2nd February Claiming Stakes Bet !!!

For Sundays main bet we go to Kempton for 1 mile classified claiming stakes at 2.20.

2.20 KEMPTON 1 MILE CLASSIFIED CLAIMING STAKES 0-70:
8 runners declared for 0-70 claimer on poly track at Kempton .This looks competitive looking 0-70 classified claimer, with the four main contenders.Exclusive Waters, Larghetto ,Divine Rule, Mahadee

EXCLUSIVE WATERS :Won two 10 furlong handicaps on poly track for William Knight,been thereabouts on first two starts in claiming company for Gary Moore, without threatening to win .Not badly treated at weights ,though seems better suited too 10 furlongs .

DIVINE RULE :C&D winner at Kempton winning 0-60 handicap last March off mark 56,made good return after six month break last time, finishing third over C&D in 1 mile handicap.Strictly has bit to find at these weights ,though often goes well here at Kempton .

MAHADEE : Useful sort in the past winning 12 races ,including six on poly track .Nowhere near that level these days ,though bolted up by 7 lenghs in 1 mile handicap at Salisbury in August off mark 66 .Returned to form last time finishing second in claimer behind Gabrial The Boss over C&D .

LARGHETTO : Returned to form in November finishing second in 7 furlong handicap at Lingfield,followed that winning handicap over C&D in December of mark 59 ,slightly disappointing last time when finishing 6th of 12 in 7 furlong handicap at Lingfield ,though will suited returning to this longer trip .


VERDICT : Mahadee is 3LB clear on official ratings ,and finished fair second last time in this grade over C&D ,though is very inconsistent these days and was previously well beaten in selling company .

At the prices LARGHETTO looks the each-way value here, having won handicap over C&D in December.Looked unsuited by drop back in trip last time ,though was only beaten 3 lenghs .Should go well dropping into claiming company for first time and returning to his optimum trip .

Of the others Exclusive Waters looks the main danger, having won two 10 furlong handicaps,though looks short enough in market at around 5-2 .Also the drop back too 1 mile may not suit .


LARGHETTO 2.20 KEMPTON 
£50.00 EACH-WAY @ 11-2 BETFRED* & TOTESPORT*
(UNPLACED SP 9-2 LOSS £100.00) 

Best price guarantee*