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Saturday, November 17, 2012

Saturday 17th November Claiming Stakes bet !!

On Saturday we have 10 furlong three year old claiming stakes on poly track at Lingfield .

8 Runners declared for 10 furlong three year old claimer on poly track at Lingfield .This looks very weak claimer ,with just two main contenders .Ewell Place & Bint Alzain 

1.05 LINGFIELD 1 MILE 3-Y-0 CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 6:
EWELL PLACE : Fair performer on the turf for Robert Mills ,including winning conditions even at Newbury in July,though has shown very little on his last four starts .Takes big drop in class here into class 6 claimer .Should go well on his first start for Dandy Nicholls .

BINT ALZAIN :Won three times this year up to 9 furlongs ,including winning 6 furlong claimer at Kempton in August ,been disappointing on her last three starts in handicap company ,though will be suited returning to claiming company .

Ewell Place is the clear pick of the weights being 8LB clear on official handicap ratings and takes big drop in class here ,though has looked very disappointing on recent starts and is difficult assess how much ability he retains.Odds around 6-4 look little too short .

BINT ALZAIN has bit to find at these weights ,though looks more reliable than his main rival and has fair record in this grade .Odds around 11-4 look fair value in what looks two horse race.


SATURDAY 17TH NOVEMBER CLAIMING BET :
BINT ALZAIN 1.05 LINGFIELD
0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @11-4 BET 365 
(SECOND SP 3-1 LOSS £20.00 )

*Best odds guarantee

Can be backed at 5.10 on Betfair at this moment ,though the bet will go down at 11-4 best price guarantee with Bet365 .

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Thursday 14th November Claiming Stakes Bet

On Thursday we have three claiming stakes races ,with two on the fibresand at Southwell and the other claimer on the poly track at Kempton .Going concentrate on 7 furlong claiming stakes at Southwell at 3.20 .

SOUTHWELL 3.20 7 FURLONG CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 6 :
12 runners go to post for 7 furlong claimer on fibresand at Southwell ,this looks very competitive claimer with 7 course and distance winners in the field.The three strongest contenders look to be Alpha Tauri,Masai Moon & Imprimis Tagula

ALPHA TAURI : Inconsistent sort ,though has good record here at Southwell with all four career wins coming over this C/D .Not shown great deal on recent starts on the turf ,though will be suited returning to the fibresand at Southwell .

MASAI MOON : Dual course winner here at Southwell ,Including winning class 4 handicap at Southwell in April by 4 lenghs off mark 79 .Hasn't shown much on his last three starts on poly track in handicap company,though will be suited dropping into class 6 company for the first time .

IMPRIMIS TAGULA : Course specialist with 10 wins here at Southwell ,including winning twice over C/D this year .Returning from a 6 month break ,though should go well if fully fit .


VERDICT :This looks a tricky claimer with plenty of course winners .Course specialist Imprimis Tagula has to be respected here with such good record in this grade ,though may need this run having been off the course for 6 months .

Alpha Tauri also looks possible danger at these weights ,having shown all his best form over this course and distance .Not the most consistent of runners ,though has to be respected in this grade .

In wide open claimer MASAI MOON is just preferred ,with this drop in class sure to suit having already won twice this year in better company ,including winning class 4 handicap off mark 79 at this track .Odds around 10-3 look fair value .

THURSDAY 15TH NOVEMBER CLAIMING STAKES BET:
MASAI MOON 3.20 SOUTHWELL
0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @ 10-3 STAN JAMES *
(UNPLACED SP 6-1 LOSS £100.00 )

Best price guarantee*

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Quiet start to the week !!

Not much happening so far this week with no flat racing on Monday or Tuesday .Wednesday see's the start of the All Weather flat season with two cards at Southwell & Kempton .

At Kempton we have 10 furlong claiming stakes at 4.25 .Unfortunately this race has cut up badly with only four runners declared . 

The Andrew Balding trained RENEGOTIATE will be difficult to beat here after finishing good third in competitive claimer at Kempton earlier last month .However at odds around 11-10 doesn't represent any great value .Not bet race for me .

Moving on to Thursday we have another two cards from Southwell and Kempton with three claimers scheduled .There looks strong possibility of at least one bet on Thursday with the 3.20 seven furlong claiming stakes at Southwell looking an interesting race. 

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Weekly Results Round Up !!

Not a great return to action this week with no winners from 2 bets for £115 loss on the week .

Tuesday's bet on Phase Shift was disappointing in 10 furlong claiming stakes at Redcar .With ground conditions in her favour,I was expecting a decent run though for some reason she failed to reproduce her previous winning form, finishing a well beaten fourth for Loss of £100.00

The second bet of the week was on Thursday on Last Sovereign in 6 furlong claimer at Wolverhampton finishing second at 7-2 .No real complaints ,Last Sovereign ran a solid enough race ,though never really looked like catching Noverre To Go in closing stages beaten 3/4 lengh in second place for Loss of £15.00

The All Weather winter season starts next Wednesday .The All Weather claimers are normally my most profitable races  ,so hopefully we can have some good results this winter.

THE RESULTS :


ON THE WEEK :
2 BETS ) 0 WINNERS ) 1 SECOND ) 1 UNPLACED )
LOSS -£115 /1.15 PTS

OVERALL AFTER WEEK 45:
43 BETS ) 12 WINNERS ) 8 SECONDS ) 3 THIRDS ) 20 UNPLACED)
STRIKE RATE 27.93 % ) PROFIT £1316 / 13.16 

RETURN ON INVESTMENT 2012:
STAKED £5050 /50.50 PTS ) RETURN £6365 / 63.65 ) ROI + 26.58 %

With no flat racing on Monday & Tuesday the blog will return on Wednesday for 10 furlong claimer at Kempton.