Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Wednesday 27th November Claiming Stakes Bet

On Wednesday we have three flat cards at Kempton ,Lingfield & Wolverhampton ,with two claiming stakes races .Going concentrate on the 7 furlong claiming stakes at Lingfield.

1.00 LINGFIELD 7 FURLONG CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 6 : 10 runners go to post for 7 furlong claiming stakes at Lingfield.This looks a decent looking claimer with the three main contenders being Corporal Maddox , Majuro , Chookie Avon &

CORPORAL MADDOX : Decent turf performer ,won competitive 7 furlong handicap at Ascot in July of mark 85 .Ran an eyecatching third last time in claimer on the fibresand at Southwell ,finishing strongly from well off the pace .Looks well treated at the weights and should go well.

MAJURO : C/D winner here at Lingfield ,has excellent record in claiming races (3121122) .Finished  third on Saturday in fair 1 mile claimer at Wolverhampton .Best in at the weights here and will also be suited dropping back to 7 furlongs .

CHOOKIE AVON : In good form this year winning three times in handicap company .Finished close second in 7 furlong handicap at Wolverhampton last time only beaten head .Faces no easy task off top weight .

VERDICT : Majuro goes well in this grade and is 5LB clear on official handicap figures,though will need to improve on Saturdays 4 lengh third in claimer at Wolverhampton to win this claimer,

CORPORAL MADDOX is class above these rivals at best having won twice at Ascot ,though only third in claimer at Southwell last time appeared unsuited by the deep fibresand a .Will be suited returning to this faster surface at Lingfield ,having finished close second in class 2 handicap over C/D on his last start at the track .


WEDNESDAY 28TH NOVEMBER CLAIMING BET :
 CORPORAL MADDOX 1.00 LINGFIELD
1PT EACH-WAY @ 3-1 BET365*,BETVICTOR*.WILLIAM HILL*PADDY POWER
(WINNER SP 5-4 PROFIT +£360.00 )

*Best price guarantee

Sunday, November 25, 2012

Weekly Results Round Up

Another very disappointing week with £300 / 3.00 pts loss .November looks like being the worse month of the year ,with no winners from 6 bets for £535 / 5.35 pts loss so far in November .

The first bet of the week was on Thursday in 6 furlong claiming stakes at Kempton on course specialist Mambo Spirit who looked to have good each-way claims at 8-1 ,though after being slowly away never figured in the race finishing well beaten sixth behind Ertikaan for £100 loss on the race .

The second bet on Saturday was in 1 mile claiming stakes at Wolverhampton's evening fixture on Classic Colori ,who looked to have strong claims taking a big drop in class, into class 6 company for first time ,though put in very disappointing performance .After being well supported in the market going off 9-5 from 3-1  could only finish fourth behind Desert Vision for £200 loss on the race .

November's bets have been most disappointing with just two second's from 6 bets ,though these bad months do happen from time to time ,the bets this month have performed a very long way below standard .

Saying that long term profits are what count in this game and the blog is still over £6500 /65.00 pts in profit since the blog started in Feb 2010 .Hopefully we can get back on track very soon .


THE RESULTS :


ON THE WEEK :
2 BETS ) 0 WINNERS ) 2 UNPLACED ) 
LOSS -£300 / 3.00 PTS

OVERALL AFTER WEEK 47 :
47 BETS ) 12 WINNERS ) 9 SECONDS ) 3 THIRDS ) 23 UNPLACED )
PROFIT + £895 / 8.95 PTS

RETURN ON INVESTMENT 2012 :
STAKED £5550 /55.50 PTS ) RETURN £6445 /64.45 PTS ) ROI +16.27 %



Saturday, November 24, 2012

Saturday 24th November Claiming Bet

On Saturday we have 1 mile claiming stakes at Wolverhampton's evening card ,with nine runners declared .


8.20 WOLVERHAMPTON 1 MILE CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 6 :
Nine runners declared for an above average 1 mile claiming stakes at Wolverhampton with the three main contenders . Super Say ,Classic Colori & Desert Vision .

SUPER SAY :Had some fair form in Ireland ,including finishing second in 11 furlong handicap at Dundalk in October off mark 88 .Has his first start for Jamie Osborne today and takes big drop in class .

CLASSIC COLORI : Useful sort on his day ,though hasn't won since March 2010 .However did finish second in good class 2 handicap at Newmarket in September .Will be suited by this big drop in class .

DESERT VISION :Been in good form lately ,including winning claiming stakes over C/D in October .Also finished close third last time in claimer over C/D .Has bit to find at the weights ,though has good record in claiming races .


VERDICT : Super Say is 4LB clear at the weights and has shown some fair form on poly track at Dundalk ,though is not the most consistent of horses and at around 7-4 looks little short in the market .

CLASSIC COLORI takes big drop in class here and would take plenty of beating if he can reproduce the form of his close second in class 2 handicap at Newmarket .Has proven form on poly track with his last win coming on poly track at Lingfield  .Odds around 3-1 look good value in this class 6 claimer ,

SATURDAY 24TH NOVEMBER CLAIMING BET :
CLASSIC COLORI 8.20 WOLVERHAMPTON 
1PT EACH-WAY @ 3-1 BET365.STAN JAMES 
(UNPLACED SP 9-5 LOSS £200.00)




Thursday, November 22, 2012

Thursday 22nd November Claiming Stakes Bet!!!

On Thursday we have 6 furlong claiming stakes on the poly track at Kempton .

With six non runners just
 6 runners go to post for competitive little claimer .The three main contenders look to be Mac Gille Eoin ,Ertikaan & Mambo Spirit .

4.10 KEMPTON 6F CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 6:

MAC GILLE EOIN : Nine time winner ,returned to form last time winning 6F class 5 handicap at Lingfield off mark 74.Faces no easy task conceding weight all round ,though has plenty of form in better grade races. 

ERTIKAAN : Consistent sort ,finished second three times this season on turf .Including finishing second last time in 6F claimer at Windsor .Finished fifth on his only start on poly track here at Kempton . 

MAMBO SPIRIT : Goes well here at Kempton with three wins & 4 seconds at the course, including two wins over this C&D .Ran fair third last time in 6F claimer at Windsor,finishing just behind Ertikaan .Has bit to find at these weights ,though has to be respected with such good course record.

VERDICT : Ertikaan looks well treated in this claimer,and has put in some fair efforts in handicap company, though all his best form has been on turf ,odds around 9-4 look little short on a horse unproven on poly track.

At the prices MAMBO SPIRIT looks the each-way value having such good record on the course .With  6 non runners in the race 8-1 looks very fair value and betfair are still paying three places on the place market .

THURSDAY 22ND NOVEMBER CLAIMING STAKES BET :
MAMBO SPIRIT 4.10 KEMPTON 
0.50 PTS WIN @ 9.60 BETFAIR
0.50 PTS PLACE @ 2.30*BETFAIR
(UNPLACED SP 8-1 LOSS £100.00)

*Place market three places .




  

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Weekly Results Round Up !!

Not a great start to November with another £120.00 loss this week .Just the two bets on the week with the first bet on  Thursday on Masai Moon in 7 furlong claiming stakes at Southwell .

Really disappointing run from Masai Moon who looked to have plenty in her favour ,course and distance winner dropping into claiming company for first time ,though after drifting in the market and going off at 6-1 ,ran complete shocker finishing well beaten tenth for £100.00 loss.

The second bet was on Saturday on Bint Alzain in 1 mile claiming stakes at Lingfield ,this looked solid each-way bet in weak looking three year old claimer .No real complaints with this bet. Bint Alzain had every chance inside the final furlong ,though had to settle for second place at 3-1 for £20.00 loss .

Overall we are still showing  £1200 profit for the year .So not all doom and gloom and hopefully next week we can have a change of luck .

THE RESULTS :


ON THE WEEK :
2 BETS ) 0 WINNERS ) 1 SECOND ) 1 UNPLACED )
LOSS - £120.00 / 1.20

OVERALL AFTER WEEK 46:
45 BETS ) 12 WINNERS ) 9 SECONDS ) 3 THIRDS ) 21 UNPLACED )
STRIKE RATE 26.66% ) PROFIT £1196 / 11.96 

RETURN ON INVESTMENT 2012 :
STAKED £5250 / 52.50 PTS ) RETURN £6445 / 64.45 ) ROI +23.45 %

Saturday, November 17, 2012

Saturday 17th November Claiming Stakes bet !!

On Saturday we have 10 furlong three year old claiming stakes on poly track at Lingfield .

8 Runners declared for 10 furlong three year old claimer on poly track at Lingfield .This looks very weak claimer ,with just two main contenders .Ewell Place & Bint Alzain 

1.05 LINGFIELD 1 MILE 3-Y-0 CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 6:
EWELL PLACE : Fair performer on the turf for Robert Mills ,including winning conditions even at Newbury in July,though has shown very little on his last four starts .Takes big drop in class here into class 6 claimer .Should go well on his first start for Dandy Nicholls .

BINT ALZAIN :Won three times this year up to 9 furlongs ,including winning 6 furlong claimer at Kempton in August ,been disappointing on her last three starts in handicap company ,though will be suited returning to claiming company .

Ewell Place is the clear pick of the weights being 8LB clear on official handicap ratings and takes big drop in class here ,though has looked very disappointing on recent starts and is difficult assess how much ability he retains.Odds around 6-4 look little too short .

BINT ALZAIN has bit to find at these weights ,though looks more reliable than his main rival and has fair record in this grade .Odds around 11-4 look fair value in what looks two horse race.


SATURDAY 17TH NOVEMBER CLAIMING BET :
BINT ALZAIN 1.05 LINGFIELD
0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @11-4 BET 365 
(SECOND SP 3-1 LOSS £20.00 )

*Best odds guarantee

Can be backed at 5.10 on Betfair at this moment ,though the bet will go down at 11-4 best price guarantee with Bet365 .

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Thursday 14th November Claiming Stakes Bet

On Thursday we have three claiming stakes races ,with two on the fibresand at Southwell and the other claimer on the poly track at Kempton .Going concentrate on 7 furlong claiming stakes at Southwell at 3.20 .

SOUTHWELL 3.20 7 FURLONG CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 6 :
12 runners go to post for 7 furlong claimer on fibresand at Southwell ,this looks very competitive claimer with 7 course and distance winners in the field.The three strongest contenders look to be Alpha Tauri,Masai Moon & Imprimis Tagula

ALPHA TAURI : Inconsistent sort ,though has good record here at Southwell with all four career wins coming over this C/D .Not shown great deal on recent starts on the turf ,though will be suited returning to the fibresand at Southwell .

MASAI MOON : Dual course winner here at Southwell ,Including winning class 4 handicap at Southwell in April by 4 lenghs off mark 79 .Hasn't shown much on his last three starts on poly track in handicap company,though will be suited dropping into class 6 company for the first time .

IMPRIMIS TAGULA : Course specialist with 10 wins here at Southwell ,including winning twice over C/D this year .Returning from a 6 month break ,though should go well if fully fit .


VERDICT :This looks a tricky claimer with plenty of course winners .Course specialist Imprimis Tagula has to be respected here with such good record in this grade ,though may need this run having been off the course for 6 months .

Alpha Tauri also looks possible danger at these weights ,having shown all his best form over this course and distance .Not the most consistent of runners ,though has to be respected in this grade .

In wide open claimer MASAI MOON is just preferred ,with this drop in class sure to suit having already won twice this year in better company ,including winning class 4 handicap off mark 79 at this track .Odds around 10-3 look fair value .

THURSDAY 15TH NOVEMBER CLAIMING STAKES BET:
MASAI MOON 3.20 SOUTHWELL
0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @ 10-3 STAN JAMES *
(UNPLACED SP 6-1 LOSS £100.00 )

Best price guarantee*

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Quiet start to the week !!

Not much happening so far this week with no flat racing on Monday or Tuesday .Wednesday see's the start of the All Weather flat season with two cards at Southwell & Kempton .

At Kempton we have 10 furlong claiming stakes at 4.25 .Unfortunately this race has cut up badly with only four runners declared . 

The Andrew Balding trained RENEGOTIATE will be difficult to beat here after finishing good third in competitive claimer at Kempton earlier last month .However at odds around 11-10 doesn't represent any great value .Not bet race for me .

Moving on to Thursday we have another two cards from Southwell and Kempton with three claimers scheduled .There looks strong possibility of at least one bet on Thursday with the 3.20 seven furlong claiming stakes at Southwell looking an interesting race. 

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Weekly Results Round Up !!

Not a great return to action this week with no winners from 2 bets for £115 loss on the week .

Tuesday's bet on Phase Shift was disappointing in 10 furlong claiming stakes at Redcar .With ground conditions in her favour,I was expecting a decent run though for some reason she failed to reproduce her previous winning form, finishing a well beaten fourth for Loss of £100.00

The second bet of the week was on Thursday on Last Sovereign in 6 furlong claimer at Wolverhampton finishing second at 7-2 .No real complaints ,Last Sovereign ran a solid enough race ,though never really looked like catching Noverre To Go in closing stages beaten 3/4 lengh in second place for Loss of £15.00

The All Weather winter season starts next Wednesday .The All Weather claimers are normally my most profitable races  ,so hopefully we can have some good results this winter.

THE RESULTS :


ON THE WEEK :
2 BETS ) 0 WINNERS ) 1 SECOND ) 1 UNPLACED )
LOSS -£115 /1.15 PTS

OVERALL AFTER WEEK 45:
43 BETS ) 12 WINNERS ) 8 SECONDS ) 3 THIRDS ) 20 UNPLACED)
STRIKE RATE 27.93 % ) PROFIT £1316 / 13.16 

RETURN ON INVESTMENT 2012:
STAKED £5050 /50.50 PTS ) RETURN £6365 / 63.65 ) ROI + 26.58 %

With no flat racing on Monday & Tuesday the blog will return on Wednesday for 10 furlong claimer at Kempton.





 






Thursday, November 08, 2012

Thursday 8th November Claiming Stakes Bet .

On Thursday we have 6 furlong claiming stakes on the poly track at Wolverhampton .This looks a wide open claimer with 13 runners declared .

5.20 WOLVERHAMPTON 6F CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 6:
With three morning non runners ,10 runners go to post for decent looking claimer for this class .This looks  competitive with few of these having some kind chance .The three strongest contenders look to be .Noverre To Go ,Last Sovereign & Where's Reiley.


NOVERRE TO GO : Won 6F class 4 handicap off mark 80 at Kempton in July ,been running consistently since without winning ,including finishing close fourth over C/D last time in class 4 handicap off mark 84.Should go well dropping back into claiming company .

LAST SOVEREIGN : Won four times this season ,including winning decent class 4 handicap over 5F at Newmarket in August .Also won 5F claimer at Wolverhampton in September .Slightly disappointing last time in class 3 handicap at Kempton when finishing 6TH ,though will be suited dropping back into claiming company .

WHERE'S REILEY :Fibresand specialist winning 7 times at Southwell .Returned to form last time winning 5f claimer at Wolverhampton beating Red Cape .Looks well treated at the weights and should be thereabouts.

VERDICT :LAST SOVEREIGN looked good when winning claimer on this course in good time at the end September and had previously won fair looking class 4 handicap at Newmarket .Looks well treated at these weights in this claimer and goes particularly well for 7LB claimer Jacob Butterfield .

Both Noverre To Go & Where's Reiley look main two dangers after running good races last time at this course .


THURSDAY 8TH NOVEMBER CLAIMING STAKES BET
LAST SOVEREIGN 5.20 WOLVERHAMPTON
0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @ 3-1 BET365* .PADDY POWER* .BETFRED *
(RESULT SECOND SP 7-2 LOSS £15.00 )



*Best price guarantee



Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Disappointing Return !!!

Disappointing return to action, with Tuesday's claiming stakes bet on Phase Shift running a stinker in 10 furlong claimer at Redcar for £100 loss on the day.

Arley Hall completely reversing form with Phase Shift winning the race easily by 5 lenghs ,with Phase Shift beaten over 16 lenghs in fourth.

Not sure why Phase Shift ran such poor race with ground conditions in her favour ,though for some reason she didn't repeat her Catterick form .though the drop back in trip probably didn't help her cause .

Looking ahead to later in the week we have 6 furlong claiming stakes on Thursday at Wolverhampton's evening fixture .Hopefully there will be much better outcome .



 

Tuesday 6th November Claiming Bet

After two month break its good to be back,hopefully we can return with good couple months before the end of the year.

On  Tuesday there are two claiming races .At Southwell we have 11 furlong claimer on the fibresand .Course specialist La Estrella looks impossible to oppose ,though at short odds makes no betting appeal .

Going concentrate on the 10 furlong claimer at Redcar ,though only 6 runners are declared this looks quite an interesting little race .

3.00 REDCAR 1 MILE 2F CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 6:
Ground conditions are going to be very testing at Redcar.The three main contenders look to be Phase Shift ,Arley Hall & Preistleys Reward . 

PHASE SHIFT : Showed improved form last time winning 12 furlong claimer at Catterick on soft ground  beating Arley Hall by comfortable 2.25 lenghs .Looked well suited by testing conditions last time and should go well in similar race.

ARLEY HALL :Consistent sort ,won 12 furlong handicap at Musselburgh in August on fast ground off mark 65 .Seemed to get outstayed last time when finishing second behind Phase Shift on testing ground at Catterick .

PREISTLEYS REWARD :Won 9 furlong handicap at Redcar on soft ground in May off mark 67. Returned to form last time, finishing fair second in 11 furlong claimer in France  .However had previously been beaten four times in selling company this season.


VERDICT : Preistleys Reward second in claimer in France last time is difficult to weigh up , though had looked disappointing when beaten in selling company and is passed over.

Arley Hall on 4LB better terms with Phase Shift has to be respected ,though not certain to appreciate this more testing ground conditions .Seemed to get outstayed in closing stages at Catterick last time.

PHASE SHIFT looks sure appreciate this testing ground after winning comfortably last time in claimer at Catterick on soft ground.The drop back to 10 furlongs on heavy ground shouldn't be problem and looks fair value at 11-4 in this small field.


TUESDAY 6TH NOVEMBER CLAIMING BET:
PHASE SHIFT 3.00 REDCAR
0.50 PTS EACH-WAY @11-4 BET365 ,BETVICTOR,PADDY POWER
(UNPLACED SP 5-2 LOSS £100.00 )



Best price guarantee*







Friday, November 02, 2012

Blog Returns !!!

Just quick update the blog had to be suspended suddenly in early September .This was due to family illness, with my mother being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer .

The last eight weeks as you can imagine have been very difficult .Having to make the 85 mile trip to Addenbrookes hospital on regular basis hasn't helped matters.I am happy to report after successful operation the tumour has been removed and hopefully there will be good outcome .

With everything starting to get back to normal again the blog will return next week on Tuesday 6th November . Hopefully we can finish the year on bright note .

I would like to take this opportunity to thank everyone who sent good wishes ,it was very much appreciated .

Thanks
Jerry