Sunday, May 15, 2011

Losing Streak !!!

Back to the drawing board after another disappointing week with both bets finishing unplaced.Really disappointing run from Dick Turpin in Lockinge stakes on Saturday after being well supported in market 7-2 into 11-4 ,though finished well beaten fourth behind impressive winner Canford Cliffs.The ground was probably too firm for Dick Turpin as he's much better horse than that. 


Since the start of April things haven't gone well and this years profit has now virtually been wiped out over past 6 weeks with losses totaling £1264 and making it nine losers in row .


After reading this article the other day, its not that unusual having such losing run the table below shows what you can expect when having that losing streak.My average price is around 4-1 



Losing Run

The losing run has been the bane of Punters since betting began, it cannot be avoided and can be soul destroying at times.

Understanding what the odds are telling the backer can be of great benefit in two ways, one is to form a betting bank that reflects your style of betting and the odds range in which you work, the other benefit is knowing the likely adverse runs that can/will come around at some point.

Below is a table of expected losing runs given the average odds played.

Expected Losing Runs

ODDS
FREQUENT
PIVOTAL POINT
RARE
EVENS
1
5
8
2/1
2
7
12
3/1
3
10
16
4/1
4
12
20
5/1
5
14
24
6/1
6
17
28
7/1
7
19
32
8/1
8
22
36
10/1
9
24
40


The Table assumes selections are soundly based, for instance if a backer was betting indiscriminately on favourites across the card, many short priced runners can be beaten on a given day, the table would be of little use because many favourites are at false prices and do not reflect their actual chance of winning the race.



I've named 3 types of bad results, Frequent, Pivotal and Rare, the Frequent set of losers is self explanatory, the rare sequence of losers will come along at some point and we must plan for extremes which then covers most if not all eventualities. The Pivotal point can act as a warning sign, a reminder to keep a close eye on all the factors to do with betting.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RESULTS :


ON THE WEEK :
2 BETS  ) 0 WINNERS ) LOSS £400 / 4.00 PTS 


OVERALL AFTER WEEK 19:
33 BETS ) 7 WINNERS ) 6 SECONDS ) 10 THIRDS )
PROFIT £132 / 1.32 


RETURN ON INVESTMENT 2011 :
STAKED £6600 / 66.00 PTS )RETURN £6732 / 67.32PTS )ROI PROFIT 2.04 %