Sunday, May 29, 2011

Weekly results / round up

Saturdays bet on Crystal Capella in filly's and mares listed race at Haydock could only finish disappointing fourth after being well supported in market 7-2 into 9-4 though never really got into the race behind Roger Varian trained Ferdoos .Not sure why Crystal Capella ran such flat race though that probably rates as her worst ever run in 12 starts and another disappointing result.

Going back to Monday's bet in 6 furlong listed stakes at Windsor ,no real complaints with Triple Aspect finishing second after being well supported in market 5-1 into 7-2 ,though no match for impressive winner Bated Breath who broke the track record.

Overall another disappointing week with another two losers making that eleven in row and £200 / 2.00 pts loss on the week.April and May have been two bitterly disappointing months the only small consolation there hasn't been that many bets this month.Long term profits are what count and hopefully we can turn things around over the upcoming  months . 
   
THE RESULTS:


ON THE WEEK:
2 BETS ) 0 WINNERS ) LOSS - £200 / 2.00 PTS


OVERALL AFTER WEEK 21:
35 BETS ) 7 WINNERS )7 SECONDS )10 THIRDS )
LOSS £68.00 / 0.68 PTS


RETURN ON INVESTMENT 2011
STAKED £7000 / 70.00 PTS ) RETURN £6932 /69.32PTS )ROI LOSS 0.09 %)




Saturday, May 28, 2011

Saturdays best bets !!!

Another busy Saturday with four flat cards at Haydock,Newmarket,Catterick and Beverley .Haydock Park stage the main meeting on Saturday with the highlight being the Group 3 Timeform Jury stakes over 7 furlongs and two decent looking listed races.

Going concentrate on the 1 mile 4 furlong fillies and mares listed stakes at 3.05.

1 MILE 4F LISTED STAKES FILLIES AND MARES HAYDOCK 3.05
  
CRYSTAL CAPELLA:Progressive 6 year old mare with an excellent strike rate 7 wins from 11 starts only raced twice last season though made an impressive reappearance at Newmarket in October winning the group two Pride stakes by 4.5 lenghs.In fact taking away her two runs in Group one races the mare has never finished out of first two in nine starts with record 2211111121 that includes two wins in group two races.Looks sure to go well now taking drop in class into listed company.

VERDICT: Interesting fillies and mares listed race that appears to concern Crystal Capella ,Ferdoos and Vita Nova

The Henry Cecil trained Vita Nova is unbeaten in three starts and was impressive 6 lengh winner last time in class 3 handicap at Newmarket off mark 87. Still open to plenty improvement after just three runs though this is quite step up in class and looks bit short in market at around 11-4. 

Ferdoos looks the main danger after finishing good second in listed race at Ascot last September only beaten nose by the very consistent Polly's Mark .Looks sure to improve this season and should go close .

CRYSTAL CAPELLA has to concede 7LB too all her main rivals ,though she is the class act in this field having won three group races and is unbeaten in listed races 2 from 2 ,has excellent record fresh winning first out for last two seasons and seems to handle any ground .7-2 looks decent value.


CRYSTAL CAPELLA.  3.05 HAYDOCK   
£100 EACH-WAY - 1PT EACH-WAY.
@ 7-2 STAN JAMES OR 10-3 BET365 BEST PRICE GUARANTEE

                                                                                                                   

Monday, May 23, 2011

Mondays best bets !!

Not bad racing for Monday with four flat cards at Carlisle, Windsor, Leicester & Thirsk .Windsor's evening fixture stages the day's feature race the 6 furlong Sportingbet Listed Stakes at 7.40.


Going concentrate on the days feature race 7.40 at Windsor ,with two early morning non runners this leaves eight runners and looks very interesting contest.




6F LISTED STAKES CLASS 1  WINDSOR 7.40
TRIPLE ASPECT :Won twice in 2010 including winning this race last year also won decent group 3 contest at Sandown in July .Returned to form last time finishing good 5TH of 14 in group two Duke York Stakes  only beaten 2.5 lenghs behind Delegator.Has good record in listed races with two wins from three starts (211) . Looks decent value at around 5-1




TRIPLE ASPECT 7.40 WINDSOR 
£100 EACH-WAY- 1PT EACH-WAY 
5-1 VICTOR CHANDLER BEST PRICE GUARANTEE








Sunday, May 15, 2011

Losing Streak !!!

Back to the drawing board after another disappointing week with both bets finishing unplaced.Really disappointing run from Dick Turpin in Lockinge stakes on Saturday after being well supported in market 7-2 into 11-4 ,though finished well beaten fourth behind impressive winner Canford Cliffs.The ground was probably too firm for Dick Turpin as he's much better horse than that. 


Since the start of April things haven't gone well and this years profit has now virtually been wiped out over past 6 weeks with losses totaling £1264 and making it nine losers in row .


After reading this article the other day, its not that unusual having such losing run the table below shows what you can expect when having that losing streak.My average price is around 4-1 



Losing Run

The losing run has been the bane of Punters since betting began, it cannot be avoided and can be soul destroying at times.

Understanding what the odds are telling the backer can be of great benefit in two ways, one is to form a betting bank that reflects your style of betting and the odds range in which you work, the other benefit is knowing the likely adverse runs that can/will come around at some point.

Below is a table of expected losing runs given the average odds played.

Expected Losing Runs

ODDS
FREQUENT
PIVOTAL POINT
RARE
EVENS
1
5
8
2/1
2
7
12
3/1
3
10
16
4/1
4
12
20
5/1
5
14
24
6/1
6
17
28
7/1
7
19
32
8/1
8
22
36
10/1
9
24
40


The Table assumes selections are soundly based, for instance if a backer was betting indiscriminately on favourites across the card, many short priced runners can be beaten on a given day, the table would be of little use because many favourites are at false prices and do not reflect their actual chance of winning the race.



I've named 3 types of bad results, Frequent, Pivotal and Rare, the Frequent set of losers is self explanatory, the rare sequence of losers will come along at some point and we must plan for extremes which then covers most if not all eventualities. The Pivotal point can act as a warning sign, a reminder to keep a close eye on all the factors to do with betting.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RESULTS :


ON THE WEEK :
2 BETS  ) 0 WINNERS ) LOSS £400 / 4.00 PTS 


OVERALL AFTER WEEK 19:
33 BETS ) 7 WINNERS ) 6 SECONDS ) 10 THIRDS )
PROFIT £132 / 1.32 


RETURN ON INVESTMENT 2011 :
STAKED £6600 / 66.00 PTS )RETURN £6732 / 67.32PTS )ROI PROFIT 2.04 %

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Saturdays best bets !!

The blogger site seems to be working OK again now after going down nearly all day Yesterday, I guess it was hardly a surprise being Friday the 13th.  


Plenty racing on Saturday with four flat meetings at Newbury,Newmarket, Thirsk & Doncaster .Newbury stage the feature card with the group one Lockinge stakes the highlight at 3.45


1 MILE LOCKINGE STAKES GROUP ONE NEWBURY 3.45 
DICK TURPIN : High class performer ,ran some excellent races in 2010 including winning the Greenham here at Newbury and then finishing second In 2000 guineas at Newmarket then went on to win the group one Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly by four Lenghs .Made winning reappearance  winning the G2 Sandown Mile in April .


VERDICT : Interesting clash between stable mates Canford Cliffs & Dick Turpin ,there didn't seem  much between the pair last season with Dick Turpin coming out on top on two occasions earlier in the season.Canford Cliffs seem to show considerable improvement after finishing third in 2000 guineas at Newmarket and looks certain to win plenty more group one races this season.


Canford Cliffs high class miler who had fantastic season in 2010, impressive winner of the Irish 2000 guineas and St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot beating Dick Turpin and then went on to win group one Sussex stakes at Goodwood .


Twice Over seemed better than ever last season winning the Eclipse and Champion stakes for second time at Newmarket ,though hasn't won over mile since 2008 and may struggle over this shorter trip against two specialist milers


With fitness advantage DICK TURPIN looks the value bet to get the better of his stable companion Canford Cliffs who will be having his first run for 10 months.


DICK TURPIN 3.45 NEWBURY 
£100 EACH-WAY- 1PT EACH-WAY
@7-2 BET365 .BEST PRICE GUARANTEE. 1/4 ODDS 1-2-3 







Friday, May 13, 2011

Friday !!

Thursdays bet on Margot Did looked unlucky finishing fourth in five furlong fillies condition race at York after getting badly impeded at the start and could never recover. In the circumstances she did well to finish close forth only beaten one lengh.Difficult to say if she would definitely of won, though she would gone very close without the interference .Saying that no real consolation when you are on poor run of results and have just done your money.









Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Thursdays best bets !!

Three flat cards on Thursday with day two of York Dante meeting ,which features some very interesting looking races , going concentrate on one the 5 furlong condition stakes for  3 year olds at 3.35 

5F CONDITION STAKES  3-Y-0 CLASS 2 YORK 3.35
MARGOT DID : Very consistent 2-Y-O last season running well in most of the top 2-Y-0 fillys races ,including finishing close second in both the G3 Albany stakes at Royal Ascot & G2 Lowther stakes at York .Made decent reappearance at Ascot last month in listed race finishing close third behind the useful Perfect Tribute who boosted the form by winning the G3 Chartwell stakes at Lingfield on Saturday.

VERDICT : Interesting 3 year old condition race which appears to rest between Night Carnation & Margot Did .The Andrew Balding trained Night Carnation looks big danger after winning 5 furlong handicap at Sandown last time in good style off mark 99 beating Ahtoug(winner since ) by easy 2 lenghs and looks to improving with every race ,though at 4-5 doesn't look great value.

MARGOT DID had some very decent form in group races last season ,not always finding great deal at the finish ,though was never beaten far in top races, the drop back in trip shouldn't be problem as she always travels well in her races and has plenty speed .Will be suited by drop in class and looks value bet at 11-4 in what looks two horse race.  


MARGOT DID 3.35 YORK
1PT EACH-WAY @ 11-4 BEST PRICE GUARANTEE
LADBROKES 1/4 ODDS 1-2-3





Monday, May 09, 2011

Another typical Monday !!!

Not much been happening so far this month ,though there has been some interesting racing on the flat over past week there has been very few suitable betting opportunities in the non handicap races 


This week looks lot more promising with some top quality action with York's three day Dante meeting starting on Wednesday followed by decent two day fixture at Newbury on Friday & Saturday


On to Mondays racing four flat cards at Brighton ,Redcar ,Wolverhampton & Windsor ,though again not great deal of interest on another typical Monday,with no suitable betting opportunities. Hopefully we will be back in action later in the week.











































Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Staking strategy !!!

Going back to an article by Peter Sackville that I posted last week about staking strategy.I then came across another interesting article on the subject posted on betting.betfair.com website back in August 2008 by Wayne Bailey who makes some excellent points about staking strategy.Anyone interested can read the article below.



Staking plans: Successful punters are adaptable and willing to learn






Wayne Bailey looks at Staking Plans and warns against complacency.


If you want to become successful at betting, the fist bitter pill to swallow is that you don't know it all, and never will. You might be good at what you do; you may even churn a decent profit. But once you've decided that you have this game sussed out, it won't be long before you get a good kick in the arse.

I know a few professionals on the Irish circuit, and the most successful of those are not the flashy type you'd expect. In fact, they are humble guys - always willing to learn, change, and adapt if necessary.

The most basic type of staking plan is level stakes - putting the same amount of money on each horse. But let's be honest, this type of staking while relatively safe, can be boring if the truth be told. If your basic stake was £10, that's fine if your horse is priced say, 13.0 - but what if the price is 1.2? Will you get any kick out of winning two quid? Probably not. That of course, is why people up or down their stakes based on price. But haphazard staking poses its own problems and it's easier to lose track of how your betting is going overall.

A few years back, a friend of mine went racing with me, and as he knew nothing about horses, he simply followed my bets. Afterwards, we counted our money; he had made a profit, I hadn't. We had backed the same horses, but I had staked based on prices, while he used level stakes. I got stung when one particularly large bet on a short priced horse went under. A clear example of how stakes can turn a successful series of bets into a loss.

So let's presume you are managing to show a level stakes profit - is there a relatively safe staking plan that can be employed to enhance profits? One of my favourite plans is to use a percentage of the betting pot as the stake. So if your betting pot was £100 and you wanted to use 4% of the pot as the stakes, your first bet would be £4. Let's say that bet won, and your bank stood at £110 - your next stake would be 4% of that figure (£4.40). It's not incredibly adventurous, but if your betting is sound, the bank will grow naturally. If not, your stakes will get smaller and smaller.

Actually finding those winners is a matter for another day, but let's look at a real example from my own betting records: 

A few years ago, I checked which tracks proved most successful for short priced NH horses (horses priced 1.5 or less), and they turned out to be Ayr, Huntingdon, Uttoxeter and Wetherby. Since 2003, backing each horse at those tracks at 1.5 or less gave 111 winners from 133 bets and showed a level stakes profit of £159.40 to £10 stakes. Not too shabby.



Up until now, I've been using level stakes for each bet, but had I used a percentage of the bank, things would look a lot different. Assuming I had a betting pot of £100, and risked 10% on each bet, my first stake would be £10. If I'd continued placing 10% of the betting pot on each horse rather than using the £10 level stake, the final profit made would be a much better looking figure: £307.94.

Again, it ties in with my original point of being willing to change things if necessary, and I've adapted my staking plan since my research. Out of laziness, I chose level stakes, and I've missed out on profit because of that. In a strange way this is just one staking plan of many, but it just goes to show the dramatic effect staking can have on your betting.
I'm not advocating that people use the above bets as a system, it's just for demonstration purposes - however, it emphasises my original point: don't assume you know always know what's best.
Test things out, preferably with pennies or on paper at first. Question yourself. Question your strategies - and just as important, question your staking. A profit is hard enough to achieve in this game - so don't let some of that profit pass you by.



Monday, May 02, 2011

Weekly / Monthly review !!

Glad to see the back of April which has turned out to be very poor month ,in fact the worst month since last July and third worst month since the blog started back in February 2010 with losses of £864 / 8.64 Pts.


The results have just not been good enough in April with no winners from 7 bets ,though poor months like that will  happen from time to time.The quality of the selections in particular the last three bets have been very poor with not one reaching a place.


The switchover from the All Weather to the turf has been the main problem.The first month of the flat turf season is never easy to find good quality bets with the form taking time settle down and in hindsight maybe I should have waited before getting involved with the turf bets


Lessons have been learned and hopefully May will turn out to be lot better Month.






THE RESULTS 




ON THE WEEK :
2 BETS ) 0 WINNERS ) LOSS - £400 / 4.00PTS)




OVERALL AFTER WEEK 17 :
31 BETS ) 7 WINNERS ) 6 SECONDS ) 10 THIRDS )
PROFIT + £532 / 5.32  


RETURN ON INVESTMENT 2011 :
STAKED £6200 / 62.00 PTS ) RETURN £6732 / 67.32) ROI PROFIT 8.69%




APRIL BETS :
6 BETS ) 0 WINNERS ) 0 SECONDS ) 3 THIRDS ) 3 UNPLACED 
LOSS £864 / 8.64 


1)DABBERS RIDGE              (10-3) 1PT E-W (THIRD) -£34.00 / 0.34 
2)PRAXIOS                             (7-2  ) 1PT E-W (THIRD) -£234.00/ 2.34*
3)KHOR SHEED                    (7-2  ) 1PT E-W (THIRD) - £264.00/ 2.64
4)ALWAYS A LADY              (7-2  )  1PT E-W (UNPL  ) - £464.00/4.64
5)LIBRANNO                         (3-1 ) 1PT E-W (UNPL   ) - £664.00/6.64
6)RODERICK O  CONNOR (9-2 )  1PT E-W(UNPL   ) - £864.00/8.64


* only seven runners after non runner.