Sunday, February 27, 2011

Weekly / Monthly review !!

Saturdays bet on Hitchens was bit disappointing only finishing fifth after being well supported in market 4-1 into 5-2.


Though only beaten one and half lenghs in blanket finish,no real excuses had good position turning for home in forth place, went slightly wide round the bend, though never picked up in the straight.Just not good enough on the day .


Not the greatest week with loss - £210 / 2.10 from two bets ,though overall quite happy how the first two months of year have gone.January and February are never the easiest months for making profits,so quite satisfied to have made profits both months.


February has been fairly good month with PROFIT + £850 / 8.50 pts ,With limited betting opportunities on the All Weather just 9 bets in total this month.There have been one or two disappointments ,though overall thats reasonable profit from 9 bets .


RESULTS :
February bets were as follows : 


1) Gitano Hernando (4-1) £100 each-way (Unplaced)-£200 /-£200
2) Faithful Ruler      (5-1) £100 each-way ( 3rd)         -£200/Level
3) Aflaam                  (3-1) £100 each-way (WINNER)+£160/+ £360
4) Colorus                (3-1) £100 each-way (2nd)           +£120/-£60
5) Bankable             (7-2) £100 each-way (Unplaced)  -£80/ -£200
6) Restless Bay       (7-2) £100 each-way (WINNER)+£340/ +£420
7) Social Forum       (6-1) £100 each-way (WINNER)+£1060/+£720
8) Fleeting Storm    (9-2) £100 each-way (3rd)           +£1050/-£10
9) Hitchens              (4-1) £100 each-way (Unplaced) +£850/-£200


 ON THE WEEK
2 BETS ) 0 WINNERS ) - LOSS £210 / 2.10 PTS


ON THE MONTH
9 BETS ) 3 WINNERS )3 PLACES ) +PROFIT £850 / 8.50 PTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT PROFIT +47.27 %


OVERALL AFTER WEEK 8 
17 BETS) 5 WINNERS) 4 SECONDS ) 5 THIRDS )
 PROFIT + £1250/ 12.50 PTS


RETURN ON INVESTMENT 2011
STAKE £3400/ 34 PTS ) RETURN £4650/ 46.50 PTS ) ROI +36.79%











Friday, February 25, 2011

Saturdays best bets !!

Lingfield stage good quality All Weather card on Saturday,including the 6 furlong listed Cleves stakes.Its been very quiet so far this week ,though we have one bet on Saturday in feature race at Lingfield .


6F CLEVES STAKES  LISTED RACE LINGFIELD 3.10
HITCHENS  : Improving 6 year old sprinter ,had good season in 2010 winning twice and also finishing excellent third in Ayr Gold cup behind the useful Redford .Won over C&D in listed race at Lingfield in November ,beating three today's rivals with plenty in hand.Has decent record in listed races and should go well.


VERDICT : Both Duff & Angels Pursuit are proven winners in this class and should go well.Duff goes well here at Lingfield and looks the main danger after finishing good third in listed race at Kempton last time,though is now an 8 year old and doesn't look quite the force of old. 


HITCHENS looks progressive sprinter, after winning similar listed race over C&D last time at Lingfield , looks fair value at around 4-1 mark.




HITCHENS 3.10 LINGFIELD 
£100 EACH-WAY - 1PT EACH-WAY
@ 4-1 BET 365 .WILLIAM HILLS.BEST PRICE GUARANTEE




















Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Wednesday reflections !!

It turned out one them days when you are very happy to lose only £10,Wednesdays bet on Fleeting Storm was bitterly disappointing with the horse never travelling a yard, soon outpaced towards the back of the field,in the circumstances did well to stay on for well beaten third, considering how far behind she was,though on that showing  needs lot further than 1 mile 3 furlongs.


John Gosden trained Manifestation won the race in very fast time  nearly one second below the standard time,making all the running and landing quite a gamble 5-2 into 11-10.In fact the time was incredible for class 6 race, over six seconds quicker than the handicap run over the same distance.


Sometimes you get a race totally wrong ,though on this occasion it wasn't too costly !!


On to Thursdays racing two All Weather cards at Southwell & Kempton,though after studying both cards there looks no good betting opportunities at either meeting . No bets on Thursday. 









Wednesday best bets !!

After seven days without any bet ,we finally have some action on Wednesday with one bet,going concentrate on 1 Mile 3 Furlongs maiden stakes at Kempton


1 MILE 3FURLONG 3-Y-0 MAIDEN STAKES KEMPTON 7.05
FLEETING STORM : Promising Second last time in 1 mile 2 furlong maiden at Lingfield behind the Barry Hills trained Moonlight Rhapsody ,was subject to massive gamble that day 12-1 into 5-2, never threatened the winner after getting badly outpaced with three furlongs to run ,though did finish strongly inside the final furlong to finish fair second.Looks certain to improve over this extra furlong.


VERDICT : The John Gosden trained Manifestation has been put in favourite for this maiden ,after finishing forth behind stable companion Songjiang in 1 mile 2 furlong maiden at Lingfield ,will be suited by extra furlong ,though that looked quite weak maiden with winner only rated 69 and will need to improve to win this maiden.


The Mick Channon trained Gottany O's made promising Debut in Maiden at Lingfield over 1 mile staying on well to finish forth behind Obsession ,looks open to plenty improvement stepping up 3 furlongs,looks the main danger.


At the prices FLEETING STORM looks fair value at around 3-1 mark ,looks to have stronger form than market rival Manifestation  and slightly surprising she is not favourite for this maiden.


Gottany O's is difficult to weigh up after one promising run over 1 mile ,though will be big danger if improving over this longer trip.


FLEETING STORM 7.05 KEMPTON 
£100 EACH-WAY - 1PT EACH-WAY 
@ 3-1 BET365 BEST PRICE GUARANTEE













Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Waiting Waiting Waiting !!!

Not great deal happening at minute this will be the sixth day in row without any bet,with just one All Weather card on Tuesday.Southwell stage seven race card ,though again no decent betting opportunities there ,with small sized fields that make very little appeal.

Wednesday looks lot more promising with two All Weather cards at Lingfield & Kempton ,with couple interesting looking races ,hopefully we will be back in action then.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Weekly review !!

There has been limited betting opportunities on All Weather this week  ,though it ended up an excellent week ,in fact the best week of the year so far, by quite a long way.
2 bets 2 winners( Social Forum 6-1 & Restless Bay 7-2) for profit £1140 / 11.40 PTS

Really pleased how the week has gone, its not been easy to find value betting opportunities on the All Weather this winter.though there are decent value bets out there ,if you are prepared to wait.


RESULTS :

ON THE WEEK
2 BETS) 2 WINNERS) PROFIT £1140 / 11.40PTS

OVERALL AFTER WEEK 7 
15 BETS ) 5 WINNERS) 4 SECONDS ) 4 THIRDS )
PROFIT £1460 / 14.60 PTS

RETURN ON INVESTMENT 2011
STAKED £3000 / 30PTS ) RETURN £4460 / 44.60 PTS) ROI + 48.80 % 




Saturday, February 19, 2011

Saturday's thoughts !!!

With just one All Weather card on Saturday at Lingfield Park ,not great deal of choice the first three races have virtually no runners(4,5,6) and next four races are ultra competitive handicaps that make no appeal whatsoever .


With the All Weather racing at the minute, good betting opportunities have been thin on the ground, especially with the lack runners in the non handicaps races,just two bets so far this week ,though both bets were winners, so no complaints here !!!


Just have to stay dicsplined and wait for that next good opportunity to come along ,hopefully sooner rather than later.

Friday, February 18, 2011

Blank on Friday

Two All Weather cards on Friday at  Lingfield & evening card at Wolverhampton ,though both cards look very average ,with some very tricky looking handicaps that make no appeal.No bets on Friday.


Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Excellent Day !!

Excellent result on Wednesday with Social Forum winning the 7 furlong maiden stakes landing nice gamble 6-1 into 7-2 for very tidy profit + £720 / 7.20 Pts


This was fascinating betting heat with massive gamble on the newcomer York Glory 10-1 into 9-4 favourite.  York Glory blew his chance at the start, with very slow break losing many lenghs.though did well to finish 3rd in the circumstances .


The original favourite Cold Secret was big drifter in market and was very disappointing after slow start finishing well beaten 7th.


Social Forum available at 6-1 in morning , was well supported in market going off 7-2 third favourite.Always in good position close to the pace, led with 3 furlongs to run and battled on well at finish to win by half lengh,making it an excellent day!!


Quickly on to Thursday's racing two All Weather cards at Southwell & Wolverhampton ,though both cards make no appeal ,in particular Southwell which has next too no runners,biggest field being seven and thats before any non runners .No bets on Thursday .



Wednesdays best bet !!

Two All Weather flat cards on Wednesday at Lingfield & Kempton ,going concentrate on first race at Lingfield the 7 furlong 3-Y-0 maiden stakes at 2.00


7 FURLONG 3-Y-0 MAIDEN STAKES CLASS 5 LINGFIELD 2.00
SOCIAL FORUM : Promising third last time in 6 furlong maiden at Lingfield ,only beaten 1 lengh behind the Richard Hannon trained Palais Glide ,that form looks quite solid with the winner going on to finish close second next time in handicap at Kempton off mark 70 and the Second, Christmas Aria also boosting the form winning maiden next time at Southwell by 4.5 lenghs.The step up to 7 furlongs should also suit having finished well last time. 


VERDICT : Cold Secret looks the obvious danger after running good second in 7 furlong maiden at Kempton ,finishing strongly from off the pace ,that looked fair maiden ,and looks sure to go well ,though does looks quite short in market at around 13-8 mark.


Sofia's Number One placed on all three starts looked disappointing last time when beaten short priced favourite over C&D at Lingfield ,in what looked lot weaker maiden,the time of the race was also very slow.


SOCIAL FORUM looks open to plenty improvement stepping up to 7 furlongs on polytrack, and at over double the price looks the value bet against the favourite.


SOCIAL FORUM 2.00 LINGFIELD 
£100 EACH-WAY - 1PT EACH -WAY 
@ 6-1 VICTOR CHANDLER .BEST PRICE GUARANTEE


*Updated  10.50 am 















Monday, February 14, 2011

Good start !!!

Good start to the week with Restless Bay winning 6 furlong selling stakes in good style at 7-2 ,in fact did touch as big 9-2 just before the off  on betfair.No complaints here with 7-2 and nice to start the week with tidy profit on the day  £420 / 4.20 PTS    

Quickly on to Tuesdays racing ,just the one All Weather card at Southwell, with not a great deal of interest there on very moderate looking meeting ,featuring five very tricky looking handicaps.No bet on Tuesday.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Mondays best bets !!

Start of another week and hopefully bit better than last week,just one All Weather card on Monday at Wolverhampton ,going concentrate on 6 furlong selling stakes at 2.40

6F SELLING STAKES CLASS 6 WOLVERHAMPTON 2.40
RESTLESS BAY : C&D winner back in September winning class 5 handicap at Wolverhampton ,not won since though has ran some fair races, including finishing short head second in class 3 handicap in November behind Fifth Commandment ,finished 4th on his last two starts in handicaps at Kempton off mark 71 .Takes drop in class into selling company for first time.Looks well treated off 8 stone 7 lb


VERDICT :  FREQUENCY  looks the big danger after winning his last two races in good style for Amy Weaver (seller & claimer) ,has since been claimed for £3000 and runs first time for Michael Wigham. RESTLESS BAY is slightly favored at the prices,taking drop in class, running in seller for first time and looks well treated receiving 20LB off Frequency.




RESTLESS BAY 2.40 WOLVEHAMPTON 
£100 EACH-WAY - 1PT EACH-WAY 
@ 7-2 LADBROKES BEST PRICE GUARANTEE




*Updated 11.15 am

Reflecting on sad day at Newbury & Weekly review !!

After yesterday's sad events at Newbury ,my deepest thoughts go out to the connections of both MARCHING SONG & FENIX TWO  R.I.P 

Reports today suggest both horses were electrocuted by underground cable ,A racecourse spokesman confirmed a cable ,thought to be dormant ,has been found under the paddock and was later removed for further inspection.


WEEKLY REVIEW

Finished up frustrating week with loss - £240 / 2.40 pts,though I thought both bets ran fair enough races .Colorus finishing close second in selling stakes at Southwell and Bankable finishing unlucky 4TH at Meydan,so not too disappointed in having a losing week

RESULTS :
 
ON THE WEEK
2 BETS ) 0 WINNERS ) - LOSS £240 / 2.40 PTS)

OVERALL AFTER WEEK SIX
13 BETS ) 3 WINNERS) 4 SECONDS)4 THIRDS)
+ PROFIT £320 / 3.20 PTS

RETURN ON INVESTMENT 2011
STAKED £2600 / 26 PTS) RETURN £2920 /29.20 PTS) ROI +12 % )

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Weekend off !!

Two All Weather flat cards on Saturday, Lingfield & evening meeting at Wolverhampton ,though after studying the two cards nothing really appeals,in fact both cards look quite poor quality for Saturday. With no flat racing on Sunday its going to be very quiet weekend ,with no bets. 

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Thursdays reflections !!

It turned out one them disappointing days on Thursday with a £200 / 2.00PTS loss, Bankable finishing very unlucky 4TH in 1 mile listed race at Meydan.After getting badly hampered and virtually taken out the race at half-way by the back peddling 100-1 outsider Accountforgold.


Difficult to say if Bankable would won the race with trouble free passage ,though how he finished  passing 6 horses inside final furlong to finish 4TH.He would gone very close with anything like a clear run,and not given hard race by Ryan Moore once his chance had gone.


Will be keeping close eye on Bankable as I'm sure he will win more races at Meydan ,with his main target likely to be Dubai Duty Free on March 26th.















Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Thursdays best bets !!

Two flat cards on All Weather, though both cards make very limited appeal with some very tough looking handicaps .

Going concentrate on Dubai carnival at Meydan where there looks very interesting 1 mile listed race at 4.50

1 MILE LISTED FIREBREAK STAKES MEYDAN 4.50
BANKABLE : Former Luca Cumani & Gary Moore trained 7-Y-0 ,looked better than ever last season when  winning 8F group two Al Fahidi Fort stakes at Meydan on turf and then finishing excellent second in group one 9F Dubai Duty free behind Al Shamali.

Made eye catching reappearance four weeks ago at Meydan finishing 4TH in conditions race over 6F on tepeta, finishing fast after not getting anything like clear run  .Will be suited by the return to 1 mile and should go well in this listed contest.

VERDICT : MUSIR looks the main danger , unbeaten at Meydan winning 3 out 3  last season for Mike De Koch,including winning group 2 UAE Derby last March ,though looks short enough in market for horse that hasn't run for nearly year.

Mike De Koch's other runner IMBONGI also looks possible danger after running decent second at Meydan in group 3 race last time behind the useful Mendip ,and did win group two race here on turf last season ,though was beaten twice by Bankable at Meydan last season.

At the prices BANKABLE looks good value  ,had some rock solid form last season, including finishing second in group one Dubai Duty Free at Meydan and goes particularly well for Ryan Moore.

BANKABLE 4.50 MEYDAN 
£100 EACH-WAY - 1PT EACH-WAY
@ 7-2 BET365. 1/4 ODDS PLACE .BEST PRICE GUARANTEE

Updated 11.30 am 

Wednesday !!

At Lingfield today I did like the chances of Dream of Fortune in 1 mile 2 furlong claiming stakes at 1.55. I was expecting much bigger price around 5-2 mark.Even allowing for Cobo Bay being non runner looks no real value at around 13-8.No bet for me at that price!!


Dream of Fortune looks the most likely winner with big question marks about both the second & third favourites.


Visions of Johanna has looked disappointing lately and was well held in handicap last time by Dream of Fortune and has yet to win on the All Weather from 7 starts.


Silver Guest is well treated in this claimer,and has very decent record on All Weather 4 wins from 9 ,though all his best form is over 1 mile or less , looks very doubtful stayer over 1 mile 2 furlongs.


Hopefully there will be some better value bets later in the week.



Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Tuesday reflections !!

Tuesdays bet on Colorus in 5 furlong selling stakes finished fair second,trading as short as 4-11 in running on betfair ,could never quite get to the David Barron trained Tsar Bomber losing by 3/4 lengh.


Too be honest not horse I even considered, having never ran on the All weather before and hadn't shown great deal on turf last year in maiden races.Colorus was slightly unfortunate to bump into horse that has shown quite bit of improvement running on fibresand for first time. Loss on the day £40.00 / 0.40 PTS 


On to Wednesdays racing two flat cards at Lingfield & evening card at Kempton,one possible bet though currently lot shorter on betfair than I was expecting.Will update tomorrow around 11.00 am 











Monday, February 07, 2011

Tuesdays best bets !!

Field sizes on All Weather this winter have been very disappointing with the majority races having  6 runners or less ,though hardly surprise with such low prize money levels.Looking through this weeks entries there does look few more horses entered up ,hopefully we will start to get some better sized fields over the final few weeks of the AW season.


On Tuesday just the one flat card at Southwell ,going concentrate on the 5 furlong selling stakes at 2.45

5F SELLING STAKES CLASS 6 SOUTHWELL 2.45


COLORUS: Six time course & distance winner at Southwell ,won 4 times in 2010 including claimer here at Southwell at the end of December beating Soopacal by short head.Could only manage 7TH of 14 last time in competitive class 5 handicap at Southwell though was only beaten 3 lenghs.Takes drop in class here into selling company for only second time in his career ( won easily last time in seller) 


VERDICT : On paper this looks competitive selling stakes, though both Lord of Reigns & Rievaulx World have big question marks having both disappointed on fibresand in the past. 


Ridley Didley won claimer over course & distance in January, though was well beaten in handicap last time at Southwell finishing over 4 lenghs behind Colorus,though can't be totally dismissed dropping into seller.


Spic n Span  has good record here at Southwell with 5 wins over course & distance and has decent record in selling races 3 wins from 6 starts,though has bit to find off these terms.


Course specialist COLORUS has great record at Southwell with six wins over course & distance , looks to have plenty in his favour  dropping into selling company.Looks fair value at around 3-1 mark.


COLORUS 2.45 SOUTHWELL
£100 EACH-WAY - 1PT EACH-WAY 
@ 3-1 BET365.VICTOR CHANDLER .BOYLESPORTS 
ALL BEST PRICE GUARANTEE


*Updated at 10.40





Sunday, February 06, 2011

Weekly review !!

Good finish to the week with Aflaam advised at 3-1, winning the selling stakes in good style,well supported in market 3-1 into 15-8 jt favourite for tidy + £360 / 3.60 pts profit on the day.


Overall its been another steady week with one winner from three bets for  £160 / 1.60 profit.Not massive profits,though quite happy with the consistent run of results since the start of the year.


RESULTS :


ON THE WEEK 
3 BETS ) 1 WINNER ) + PROFIT £160 / 1.60 PTS )


OVERALL AFTER WEEK FIVE 
11 BETS) 3 WINNERS ) 3 SECONDS ) 4 THIRDS)  
+ PROFIT £560 / 5.60PTS


RETURN ON INVESTMENT 2011 
STAKED £2200 / 22 PTS) RETURN £2760 /27.60 ) ROI + 25%)


2010 PROFIT £4670 / 46.70 PTS
2011 PROFIT £560 / 5.60 PTS


RUNNING TOTAL PROFIT  £5230 / 52.30 PTS 







Friday, February 04, 2011

Saturdays best bets !!

Fridays bet on Faithful Ruler finished well beaten third , no match for favourite Majuro who won very easily by 6 lenghs making all ,no damage done on the race though with the each way bet returning the stake.


Quickly on to Saturdays racing just one flat card at Lingfield ,going concentrate on the second race on the card 1 mile selling stakes at 1.50


8F SELLING STAKES CLASS 6 LINGFIELD 1.50
AFLAAM : Dual C&D winner at Lingfield ,ran fair third in 1 mile class 5 handicap at Kemton in December behind Gallantry ,failed to stay 10 furlongs when again finishing third behind Scary Movie in seller at Lingfield in January ,will be suited to the return to selling company over 1 mile, all three career wins over that trip.Should go well in this selling contest


VERDICT : This looks to concern three horses (Call Collect , Grand Vizier & Aflaam ) Call Collect    has three career victorys all over 7 furlongs ,though 0 from 5 over mile and looks doubtful stayer,though he can't be totally dismissed in very weak race.


Grand Vizier is clear top rated on BHA ratings,though hasn't looked the same horse on his last two starts since switching stables from Chris Wall to Conor Dore ,and looked very tricky ride last time at Wolverhampton,though still rates the main danger in this weak race.


At the prices AFLAAM looks fair value,returning to his best trip and proven winner over course & distance, will be suited returning to selling company for inform Ron Harris .




AFLAAM 1.50 LINGFIELD 
£100 EACH-WAY - 1PT EACH-WAY 
@ 3-1 WILLIAM HILLS BEST PRICE GUARANTEE


Updated 11.10  




Thursday, February 03, 2011

Fridays best bets!!

Thursdays bet Gitano Hernando was disappointing finishing well beaten fifth in group three contest at meydan,though not given the greatest of rides after being dropped out in last place and then coming widest of all ,never really picked up inside final two furlongs most disappointing run ,after being well supported in market 4-1 into 11-4.Loss -£200 / 2.00 pts on the day. 


South African horse Bold Silvano was very impressive winner for Mike de Koch who landed 4 timer on the card and is now favourite in some lists for Dubai World cup.


On too Fridays racing two flat cards at Lingfield & Wolverhampton ,going concentrate on 9 furlong claiming stakes at Wolverhampton's evening card.


9F CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 6 WOLVERHAMPTON 6.00


FAITHFUL RULER : Back to form since being dropped in grade, winner of his last two races including easy seven lengh winner of 8F seller at Lingfield for Richard Fahey back in December ,followed up next time winning 10F claimer at Lingfield on his first start for Ron Harris beating Dream of Fortune.Looks well weighted in this claimer and should go close.


VERDICT : Majuro looks obvious danger after winning twice this winter (seller & claimer) and strictly on BHA ratings is the top rated ,though at prices looks no value at around 7-4 mark.


FAITHFUL RULER at around double the price looks the better value bet ,very consistent in this grade and  had some decent form in much better races last season. 


FAITHFUL RULER 6.00 WOLVERHAMPTON
£100 EACH-WAY - 1PT EACH-WAY 
@ 5-1 STAN JAMES .BLUE SQUARE


Updated 11.15 am









Wednesday, February 02, 2011

Thursdays best bets !!

Not great deal been happening so far this week ,though on Thursday we have the weeks first bet ,going concentrate on the days feature race at the Dubai carnival ,Al Maktoum challenge this looks cracking group 3 contest over nine furlongs featuring five grade one winners.


1 MILE 1F GROUP 3 MAKTOUM CHALLENGE MEYDAN 


GITANO HERNANDO : High class performer with excellent record on AW surfaces winning 5 from 6 ,Won the grade one Goodwood stakes at Santa Anita in 2009 ,went off favourite for last years Dubai World cup finishing fair 6TH, though only beaten just over two lenghs ,finished the season with good 4TH in group one champion stakes at Newmarket.Looks sure go well back in group 3 company.


VERDICT : BOLD SILVANO is surprising favourite here ,though rated one best horses in South Africa last season, has plenty to prove having never ran on AW surface and drop in distance is also major concern, best form over 11 furlongs.Trainer Mike De Kock has also been struggling for winners at this years carnival.


AL SHEMALI looks big danger on last years form,ran some excellent races here last year at Meydan  including winning group one Duty Free on turf and has proven form on the tapeta surface,though has to prove his fitness having not run for 9 months.


GITANO HERNANDO  has rock solid form in grade one races and again has been trained for this years Dubai World cup in March currently 10-1 chance  ,though he hasn't run since last October in Champion Stakes at Newmarket has always gone well fresh in past winning first time out in 2009 & 2010 ,looks decent value in grade three race at around 3-1 mark.




GITANO HERNANDO 6.10 MEYDAN 
£100 EACH-WAY - 1PT EACH-WAY @ 4-1 CORALS
BEST PRICE GUARANTEE
* updated 10.00 am