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Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Staking strategy !!!

Going back to an article by Peter Sackville that I posted last week about staking strategy.I then came across another interesting article on the subject posted on betting.betfair.com website back in August 2008 by Wayne Bailey who makes some excellent points about staking strategy.Anyone interested can read the article below.



Staking plans: Successful punters are adaptable and willing to learn






Wayne Bailey looks at Staking Plans and warns against complacency.


If you want to become successful at betting, the fist bitter pill to swallow is that you don't know it all, and never will. You might be good at what you do; you may even churn a decent profit. But once you've decided that you have this game sussed out, it won't be long before you get a good kick in the arse.

I know a few professionals on the Irish circuit, and the most successful of those are not the flashy type you'd expect. In fact, they are humble guys - always willing to learn, change, and adapt if necessary.

The most basic type of staking plan is level stakes - putting the same amount of money on each horse. But let's be honest, this type of staking while relatively safe, can be boring if the truth be told. If your basic stake was £10, that's fine if your horse is priced say, 13.0 - but what if the price is 1.2? Will you get any kick out of winning two quid? Probably not. That of course, is why people up or down their stakes based on price. But haphazard staking poses its own problems and it's easier to lose track of how your betting is going overall.

A few years back, a friend of mine went racing with me, and as he knew nothing about horses, he simply followed my bets. Afterwards, we counted our money; he had made a profit, I hadn't. We had backed the same horses, but I had staked based on prices, while he used level stakes. I got stung when one particularly large bet on a short priced horse went under. A clear example of how stakes can turn a successful series of bets into a loss.

So let's presume you are managing to show a level stakes profit - is there a relatively safe staking plan that can be employed to enhance profits? One of my favourite plans is to use a percentage of the betting pot as the stake. So if your betting pot was £100 and you wanted to use 4% of the pot as the stakes, your first bet would be £4. Let's say that bet won, and your bank stood at £110 - your next stake would be 4% of that figure (£4.40). It's not incredibly adventurous, but if your betting is sound, the bank will grow naturally. If not, your stakes will get smaller and smaller.

Actually finding those winners is a matter for another day, but let's look at a real example from my own betting records: 

A few years ago, I checked which tracks proved most successful for short priced NH horses (horses priced 1.5 or less), and they turned out to be Ayr, Huntingdon, Uttoxeter and Wetherby. Since 2003, backing each horse at those tracks at 1.5 or less gave 111 winners from 133 bets and showed a level stakes profit of £159.40 to £10 stakes. Not too shabby.



Up until now, I've been using level stakes for each bet, but had I used a percentage of the bank, things would look a lot different. Assuming I had a betting pot of £100, and risked 10% on each bet, my first stake would be £10. If I'd continued placing 10% of the betting pot on each horse rather than using the £10 level stake, the final profit made would be a much better looking figure: £307.94.

Again, it ties in with my original point of being willing to change things if necessary, and I've adapted my staking plan since my research. Out of laziness, I chose level stakes, and I've missed out on profit because of that. In a strange way this is just one staking plan of many, but it just goes to show the dramatic effect staking can have on your betting.
I'm not advocating that people use the above bets as a system, it's just for demonstration purposes - however, it emphasises my original point: don't assume you know always know what's best.
Test things out, preferably with pennies or on paper at first. Question yourself. Question your strategies - and just as important, question your staking. A profit is hard enough to achieve in this game - so don't let some of that profit pass you by.



5 comments:

  1. Hi Jerry

    Once again you have found a real gem of a post.

    I must say that I am seriously looking at my staking now after reading the excellent posts that both you and Cassini at the green all over blog have posted on the subject of staking.

    Keep them coming mate.

    Mark

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  2. Thanks Mark

    In my opinion staking percentage of your betting bank will be far more profitable than level stakes or point system in the long term.

    After researching all my bets from last 8 months I would made far greater profits staking a percentage of my betting bank.

    After thinking about my staking strategy for last few days. I have decided from June 1st to stake 5% of my betting bank per bet.

    The only slight problem I have is knowing what percentage would be suitable,for me 5% seems about the right figure.

    Regards
    Jerry

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  3. Gentleman,

    First I would like to say that although I am not an expert I have some sound advice you might want to consider in dealing with the percentage of bankroll betting plan that you describe.The theory behind this plan is that your bets will increase during a winning streak and decrease during a losing one thus protecting the betting bank. This does not work. In reality, it actually lowers your advantage. The problem is you're often betting more money on your losers than your winners. This is not good betting more on losers then winners.

    The percentage of bankroll plan is better for players that select a high percentage of winning selections because you'll hit early in the sequence more often, and that's when your bets are the highest.

    Some thoughts. Best of luck

    Jake

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  4. Hi Jake

    To my mind you do make valid point but I would think that with Jerry's selections the strike rate would be high enough to make the percentage of bankroll a viable plan.


    Mark

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  5. Interesting thoughts guys

    I have done the research on my own bets over past 8 months, the 5 percent of betting bank per bet would of made more profits than level stakes.

    Jake you make some good points ,though I'm convinced this will be more profitable long term.

    Thanks
    Jerry

    ReplyDelete