Saturday, October 02, 2010

Taking rain check on Saturday

Disappointing start to the month,the first bet ALEXANDROS had no excuses was there with every chance with 3 furlongs to go,but folded tamely and could only finish well beaten 5TH behind impressive 7 lengh winner  CITYSCAPE .

The second bet TEMPLE MEADS never had any chance ,the saddle slipped at very early stage and jockey just had to ease him down and finished last of eight.Very unfortunate as never got any run for our money ,though very doubtful he would beat impressive 9 lengh winner Dream Ahead.Loss of  -£250 / 2.50 pts

Saturday's racing looks very difficult with so much rain falling on Friday, making it very difficult to find any decent betting opportunities, Newmarket looks impossible with huge fields on very soft ground.So will be taking rain check on Saturday.

Friday, October 01, 2010

Fridays best bets

Start of another new month with an excellent days racing at Newmarket, with four group races including group one Cheveley park stakes & group one Middle park stakes both for 2 year olds.

Plenty more rain forecast on Friday at Newmarket,and the ground is going to be very testing and we need to be looking for proven soft ground performers.

The Nayef Joel stakes, group three over 1 mile & Middle park stakes, group one over 6 furlongs both look very interesting races .

1 MILE GROUP 3 NAYEF JOEL STAKES NEWMARKET 1.55

ALEXANDROS :Won group three contest at Meydan in February beating Crowded house by 3.5 lenghs,also ran very good second at Epsom in June only beaten neck by Bushman in decent group 3 contest had likely favourite PENITENT back in 7TH.Well suited too soft ground and has excellent record in Group three company.

DANGER:CITYSCAPE Highly regarded 2-Y-0 finished 2ND in group two Royal Lodge at Ascot in 2008,Back to form last time winning listed contest  at Haydock,should handle soft conditions ,Lightly raced and looks open too plenty improvement.


VERDICT :ALEXANROS Has plenty in his favour here, ground / trip look ideal and has good record in group 3 races, stable in excellent form .9-2 looks good decent value. 

6F MIDDLE PARK STAKES GROUP ONE NEWMARKET 

TEMPLE MEADS :Won 3 from 4 starts,impressive winner of the group two Mill Reef stakes at Newbury last time beating Formasina by 1.75 lenghs,looks very high class 2-Y-0 sprinter,should handle these soft conditions, won on debut at Newmarket on good/soft

DANGER:DREAM AHEAD looks the big danger,unbeaten in two starts and  impressive winner of group one Prix Mornay at Deaville last time should handle  soft conditions.

VERDICT :TEMPLE MEADS & DREAM AHEAD both look very high class 2 year olds ,DREAM AHEAD should go well here, though at around 6-4 represents little value ,and at the prices TEMPLE MEADS looks the value bet at around 4-1 or 7-2

FRIDAYS BETS :

ALEXANDROS 1.55 NEWMARKET
£50 EACH/WAY @ 9-2 BET 365,CORALS,STAN JAMES

TEMPLE MEADS 3.05 NEWMARKET
£50 EACH/WAY @ 4-1 CORALS

£25 EACH/WAY DOUBLE
@ 9-2 & 4-1 DOUBLE PAYS 26.5 /1 WITH CORALS









Thursday, September 30, 2010

No bets on Thursday

Not much has happened so far this week ,no bet on Wednesday after SOHCAHTOA never reached 5-2 not helped by 2 non runners in the race.In the race itself SOHCAHTOA had ding dong battle all the way to line just getting pipped by 10-1 shot State Visit

Thursday see's the start of the three day Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting ,though nothing really appeals there today, and the other three flat cards look very tricky.So its blank day on Thursday.Though Newmarket stages an excellent card on Friday including two group one races.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Wednesdays best bets

No real excuses for DINGAAN was in perfect position and had every chance with two furlong's to go, though just not quite good enough getting beat neck into second place in very close finish ,loss of £38.00 / 0.38 pts.

Wednesday we have four flat cards , Salisbury,Newcastle,Nottingham,Kempton ,though plenty rain forecast tomorrow so ground conditions are going to be quite testing .

Going to concentrate on the 1 mile 2 furlong claiming stakes at Salisbury.run at 3.40

1 MILE 2F CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 5 SALISBURY 3.40


SOHCAHTOA :Hasn't won for over two years ,though has some decent form in good handicaps this season ,finished second at Doncaster & Newmarket earlier in season in class 2 & 3 handicaps,also ran good third in class 3 claimer at York earlier this month , takes big drop in class here into class 5 claimer,Richard Hannon has good record in claimers (8 from 30) this season .


DANGER :INDIAN VALLEY very consistent  3-Y-0,won claimer last time at Yarmouth over 1 MILE on soft ground beating Strike a Deal by 2.5 lenghs,looks well weighted in this claimer off  8 stone 3lb,though has to prove he stays 1 mile 2 furlongs.


VERDICT :SOHCAHTOA should go well here taking big drop in class  ,proven over distance and handles any ground , INDIAN VALLEY looks big danger of his low weight ,though has to prove her stamina over this trip.


*Updated 2.40 pm


SOHCAHTOA 3.40 SALISBURY
(NO BET TWO NON RUNNERS )




*Advertise & Whistledownthewind  are both now non runners after heavy rain at Salisbury ,always big problem this time year with so many non runners.No bet today

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Tuesday's best bets

No bet on Monday with EL MANSOUR price a lot shorter than expected, 2-1 being best price available all day ,Going off very short 6-4 favourite. I was very surprised that he was backed so much with the Michael Stoute runner Kinyras in the race, who's runners are normally well supported, though not so on this occasion .

In the race itself  EL MANSOUR travelled well in Second place and looked the likely winner with 2 furlongs to run though in the end was just denied in very close finish, finishing third beaten short head & nose by the newcomer Marhaba Malyoon.

On to Tuesdays racing just the two flat cards Newbury & Brighton ,Newbury's meeting is of no interest to me, full of big field Handicaps and maiden races that look very difficult.Brighton's never been one my favourite tracks though there does look quite interesting claiming stakes at 4.30 .

7F CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 5 BRIGHTON 4.30

DINGAAN :Useful performer on his day ,good winner of 1 mile claimer at Sandown  back in July beating Carcinetto by 3 Lenghs ,unsuited by slow pace last time in 7 furlong claimer at Wolverhampton, when finishing close third. Looks well treated at these weights and should go well.

DANGER :TIMETEAM consistent sort with proven record in this grade ,won seller over course/distance last time,looks the main danger to DINGAAN

VERDICT : DINGAAN stands out on form ,has proven record in better quality races,and should get the fast pace he needs .Looking for minimum price of 5-2

*Updated at 10.14 am Tuesday*

DINGAAN 4.30 BRIGHTON
£75 EACH/WAY / 0.75 EACH/WAY
@ 5-2 STAN JAMES/ SKY BET










Monday, September 27, 2010

Mondays best bets

Three flat cards on Monday ,Bath ,Kempton ,Ffos Las , No interest at Ffos Las or Kempton ,though there
looks quite interesting 1 mile 2 furlong  2-Y-0 maiden at Bath.

1 MILE 2 FURLONG 2-Y-0 MAIDEN STAKES BATH 3.30


EL MANSOUR :Steadily improving since stepping up in trip,good second last time in quite decent 1 mile 1 furlong class 4 nursery handicap at Newmarket behind the John Gosden trained Liberty Cap,didn't get the clearest of runs there after getting stuck on the rails,though stayed on well inside the final furlong to finish second,should be suited by step up to 1 mile 2 furlongs.Clive Cox stable in good form.


DANGER ; KINYRAS made promising debut back in July ,in maiden at Sandown over 7 furlongs staying on well  ,the step up too 1 mile 2 furlongs should suit this well bred colt ,and looks open too plenty of improvement over this longer trip.


VERDICT ; EL MANSOUR second last time in handicap at Newmarket is best form on offer here ,and appears to have only the Michael Stoute trained KINYRAS to beat.Michael Stoute runners always seem start short prices in these type maiden races,any prices of 5-2 or bigger for EL MANSOUR would be fair value.


*Updated at 2.15 pm*


EL MANSOUR 3.30 BATH 
NO BET ONLY 13-8 AVAILABLE 


Disappointed with early price only 2-1 with bet365 available, unfortunately has now got even shorter price, now 13-8 , NO BET.







Sunday, September 26, 2010

Summary of the weeks bets

Its been another good  week with just the(4 BETS) (3 WINNERS)
(6-1,4-1,3-1) and the other bet finished close second at 5-1.
PROFIT £780/ 7.80 PTS on the week .

That makes it  4 winning weeks in row and very pleased with the consistency of the bets in September.
In total that's (15 BETS )(7 WINNERS) (5 SECONDS)
(2 THIRDS) (1 FORTH)


The first bet of the week  was on the Tuesday ,NERVES OF STEEL at Folkestone in 9 furlong maiden , £50 each /way at 5-1 was the bet with Paddy Power best odds guarantee ,Jamie Spencer had this well placed throughout in second place and looked the likely winner when taking up running with 1 furlong to go though could not hold on and was caught near the finish by Michael Stoute newcomer Mondun who landed huge gamble 3-1 into 8-11.Profit level

The second bet was on Wednesday ,FREMEN at Redcar in 1 MILE claiming stakes,£50 e-way at 9-2 with BET365 best odds guarantee ,for some reason this horse drifted out too 6-1just before the off  ,which looked massive price for horse that had won 7 times this season.FREMEN always travelled well in the race just behind the leaders and led over 1 furlong out and drew clear to win by easy 3 lenghs ,for nice profit of £360.

The third bet of week was on Thursday at Wolverhampton's evening meeting  ,TAKEAWAY in 7 furlong    2-Y-0 claiming stakes £50 each/way at 4-1 with BET365 was the bet ,this was very well backed all day going off very short 6-4 shot.In the race itself Richard Hughes had him in behind the leaders early on then pulled him to outside turning for home,and came though to lead inside the final furlong for hard-fought victory.£240 profit

Final bet of the week was at Ascot on Friday ,POLLY'S MARK £50 each/way at 3-1 with BET365 in 1 mile 4 furlong fillies and mares listed race.plenty rain had fallen in morning which was in POLLY'S MARK favour and she was well backed going off the 5-2 second favourite.In the race itself Richard Hughes always had her in good position in forth place ,she took up the running inside the final furlong ,though the favourite Ferdos was finishing very strongly on outside though was hanging badly left ,it ended up very close photo finish ,luckily for me POLLY'S MARK got the verdict by nose .With £180 profit and very good week.



THE RESULTS :


ON THE WEEK
4 BETS ) 3 WINNERS )PROFIT + £780 / 7.80PTS


ON THE MONTH
15 BETS) 7 WINNERS)PROFIT + £2327 / 23.27 PTS


OVERALL AFTER 33 WEEKS
268 BETS)78 WINNERS)PROFIT 53.30 PTS