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Saturday, September 25, 2010

Saturday watching brief

Excellent week so far with POLLY'S MARK winning the listed race at Ascot  ,making it 3 winners from 4 bets this week,though it was such close call, just holding on by the shortest of margins a nose, for £180/ 1.80 pt profit on the day.To be honest POLLY'S MARK was probably bit fortunate to win the race, Ferdoos would clearly won the race had she not hung so badly in home straight.

On too Saturdays racing we have four flat cards, Ascot stages a of top quality card  ,including two group 1 races the feature race being Queen Elizabeth II stakes,though with so much rain about on Friday its going be quite difficult day finding decent betting opportunities ,so its just watching brief for me on Saturday.

Friday, September 24, 2010

Fridays best bets

Another good day on Thursday with TAKEAWAY winning the claiming stakes and landing big gamble 4-1 into 6-4 for £240 / 2.40 pt profit on the day .

Friday we have three cards including  the start of the three day Ascot festival ,going concentrate on best race of the day at Ascot  1 mile 4f  fillies and mares listed race.

1 MILE 4F FILLIES & MARES LISTED RACE ASCOT 3.45


POLLY'S MARK :Very consistent filly won three times last season including over course/ distance,and finished 2ND in this race last year only beaten short head ,hasn't managed to win this season though has finished 2ND three times in top company, (twice in group company) ,the drop back to 1 mile 4 furlongs will also suit, should go well back in  listed company.


DANGER ;FERDOOS looks the main danger,after winning both her starts easily, won class 3 handicap by 6 lenghs last time at Ffos Las ,looks open to plenty of improvement after only two starts,though she will need to improve to win listed contest 


VERDICT :POLLY'S MARK has lot in her favour here,proven in listed company ,handles any ground  and 1 Mile 4 looks ideal , should go well for in form Richard Hughes. 3-1 Looks very fair price.


POLLY'S MARK 3.45 ASCOT
£50 EACH/WAY / 0.50 EACH/WAY 
@ 3-1 BET365,STAN JAMES BEST PRICE GUARANTEE 
(WINNER) PROFIT £180 / 1.80 PTS

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Thursdays best bets

Great result on Wednesday with FREMEN winning the claimer very easily at very generous price of 6-1 for £360 / 3.60 pts profit.Incredible performance by the 10 year old winning his 8th race of the season and his 19th career victory.

Thursday we just have the two flat meetings Pontefract & Wolverhampton,not great deal of quality on offer though we do have quite interesting 2 year old claiming race at Wolverhampton's evening meeting.

7F 2-Y-0 CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 5 WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30


TAKEAWAY : Consistent type ,ran fair third over course distance last time in quite decent 2 year old claimer behind Malice or Mischief and Daas Rite ,trying to concede lumps of weight all round, 16LB to winner & 19 LB to second,that form has since been boosted by second (Daas Rite) winning claimer next time and finishing close 3RD in class 2 handicap.Richard Hannon has good record with his 2 year old's at Wolverhampton this season 3 out 4 & Richard Hughes takes the ride.




DANGER : WATER ICE should also go well,easy winner over course/ distance in handicap back in July ,has disappointed on turf in handicap company on her last two starts ,though the return to Wolverhampton poly track will suit better.


VERDICT :TAKEAWAY faced very difficult task last time over course/distance trying to concede lumps of weight all round ,looks better treated at weights in this claimer only conceding 5LB to his main two rivals ,should go well for Hannon and Hughes 


TAKEAWAY 5.30 WOLVERHAMPTON
£50 EACH/WAY / 0.50 PTS EACH/WAY
@ 4-1 BET365 BEST PRICE GUARANTEE 
(WINNER 4-1 ) PROFIT £240 / 2.40 PTS
*Updated at 11.10 am

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Wednesdays best bets

No complaints with NERVES OF STEEL finishing 2ND , ran fine race and looked the likely winner when leading inside final furlong ,though just unable to hold on getting caught by the Michael Stoute newcomer Modun who landed big gamble from 3-1 into 8-11.No damage done there with money back.

On to Wednesday's racing three flat cards Goowood,Redcar and Kempton ,just going concentrate on one race at Redcar 1 mile claimer at 4.00

1 MILE CLAIMING STAKES CLASS 5 REDCAR 4.00


FREMEN :Excellent record in claimers and sellers over the past two seasons,made it win number seven  for season last time in 1 mile 1 furlong claimer at Musselburgh beating King of the Moors by 1.5 lenghs .Strictly on the form book has bit to find Sunnyside Tom ,who beat him 6 lenghs in claimer at Beverley at the end of August, though Fremen never got the run of the race that day, having to race very wide throughout and did well to finish 2ND in circumstances. Looks well treated at the weights and should go well.


DANGER : SUNNYSIDE TOM looks the obvious danger after winning 4 claimers this season ,though was disappointing last time finishing well beaten 6TH in claimer at York .


VERDICT; FREMEN & SUNNYSIDE TOM look the two to concentrate on here both proven in this grade ,though with SUNNYSIDE TOM running well below form last time,FREMEN looks the value bet at around 4-1.


FREMEN 4.00 REDCAR 
£50 EACH/WAY / 0.50PTS EACH/WAY
@ 9-2 BET 365 
(WINNER 6-1 BEST PRICE GUARANTEE !!)
£360 PROFIT / 3.60PTS


*Updated 10.55 am*



Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Tuesday's best bets

Tuesday we have just the two flat cards, Beverley stage the better quality racing with quite good looking conditions race at 3.30.

The Dandy Nicholls trained Tax Free should be difficult to beat here, taking big drop in class after finishing good second behind Astrophysical Jet in group 3 contest at the Curragh last time,though going to be quite short price around the 6-5 mark,and last years winner Captain Dunne looks bit of danger,interesting race but not betting race for me.

For the days only bet we go down south to Folkestone, and quite interesting 1 Mile 1 furlong maiden race at  4.30.

1 MILE 1F 149YDS 3-Y-0+ MAIDEN CLASS 5 FOLKESTONE 4.50


NERVES OF STEEL:Promising second on Debut over course/distance at Folkestone, behind Doon kalal ,beaten 3.75 lenghs that form has been boosted with 3RD & 5TH  from that race both winning next time.Finished 4TH last time at Goodwood in 1 Mile 2F maiden race behind the M.Stoute trained Longliner ,would been closer there but was badly impeded inside the final furlong .Has to reverse form with likely favourite Santosa though without that interference there would been very little between the pair.


DANGER ; SANTOSA looks big danger after showing plenty improvement on her second start last time at Goodwood Henry Cecil stable remains in good form.though looks very short price here at around 5-4


VERDICT: NERVES OF STEEL & SANTOSA look closely matched on Goodwood form and should be close between the pair,at the prices NERVES OF STEEL looks much better value at around 4-1 mark.




NERVES OF STEEL 4.50 FOLKESTONE
£50 EACH/WAY /0.50PTS E/WAY
@ 5-1 PADDY POWER
(SECOND ) £ LEVEL


* updated 10.50.am Monday*



Monday, September 20, 2010

Mundane Monday

Typical start to the week with three ordinary cards  ,Hamilton,Leicester and Kempton ,not great deal to get excited about with plenty tricky handicaps and quite few 2-Y-0 maiden races.No bets on Monday.

With just seven weeks of flat turf season left,the racing now tends to get lot more tricky ,especially with ground conditions changing from day to day,I will need to be lot more selective with the bets and pick and choose the right races a lot more carefully.

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Summary of the weeks bets

Excellent finish to the week with VESUVE landing a nice gamble 7-2 into 2-1 for £437 / 4.37 pts profit ,Just the three each / way  bets on the week with £329 / 3.29 pts profit .( Winner 7-2) (Third 9-2) (forth 6-1)

Good to keep the good run going in September with the third winning week in row ,very pleased with the consistency of the bets so far this month.11 BETS, 4 WINNERS, 4 SECONDS ,2 THIRDS.

The first bet of week was on Tuesday in 1 Mile 2 Furlong claiming race at Lingfield ,SAMARINDA
£50 each/ way at 6-1 and was very supported into 7-2, though could only manage 4TH after trying to make all the running ,loss there of -£100.

The next bet was not till the Friday, THE THRILL IS GONE in 5 Furlong listed race for 2 year old's at Ayr £75 each/ way at early price 9-2 this was also very well backed going off 5-2 second favourite ,though she never really looked like winning and was quite well beaten third ,only small loss there -£8.00

The final bet of the week on Saturday was VESUVE in 1 Mile 2 Furlong listed race at Ayr,£100 each /way at 7-2 and there was plenty money for the Godolphin runner going of 2-1 second favourite.
Frankie Dettori always had VESUVE in good position  just tracking the favourite Kings Gambit and took up the running over 1 Furlong out ,and battled all the way to line to win by neck, for nice +£437 profit.


THE RESULTS :




ON THE WEEK :
3 BETS ) 1 WINNER ) PROFIT + £329 / 3.29 PTS


ON THE MONTH :
11 BETS) 4 WINNERS) PROFIT + £1547 / 15.47 PTS


OVERALL AFTER 32 WEEKS
264 BETS)75 WINNERS) PROFIT + £45.50 PTS