Saturday, August 14, 2010

Saturday Reflections

Not sure what happened to Kite wood after massive gamble took place 7-2 into 6-4, though ran absolute stinker  finishing 6TH beaten nearly 24 Lenghs, bitterly disappointing after such big gamble took place.

No bets on Sunday with three very poor cards in UK,though there is fascinating group one  race in France were the brilliant French mare GOLDIKOVA takes on the smart  PACO BOY should be great race though not really betting race.

Saturdays best bets

Disappointing run from Piano who could only manage 4TH place,after having every chance with 2 Furlongs to run,though no excuses just not good enough and 2 pt loss on the day.

Saturday we have plenty racing, though just going concentrate on the main meeting at Newbury which stage couple decent group races Hungerford stakes 7 furlongs group two& Geoffrey Freer stakes 13 furlongs group three .They were calling the ground good on Friday though it looked to riding lot slower to me and the times backed this up and I would say its riding good/soft and with more rain forecast on Saturday.

GEOFFREY FREER STAKES GROUP 3 NEWBURY 2.30
KITE WOOD; Decent performer on his day ,won this race last year beating Age of Reason by 1.5 Lenghs,then went on to finish good Second in St Leger at Doncaster last September on ground faster than ideal.Made winning reappearance in France in Group two race over 2 Miles,though needs to bounce back after very disappointing run at Royal Ascot in Gold cup back in June.Will be well suited by this softer ground and unbeaten 3 from 3 in group three company.


HUNGERFORD STAKES GROUP 2 NEWBURY 3.05
BALTHAZAAR'S GIFT: Impressive winner of this race last year beating the useful Regal Parade by 3 Lenghs ,ran fair 5TH last time at Goodwood behind Lord Shanakill only beaten just over 2 Lenghs ,will be suited by this easier ground and has proven form in group two company.




KITE WOOD 2.30 NEWBURY 1PT E-WAY @ 7-2 BET365 
RULE FOUR  15P IN £
BALTHAZAAR'S GIFT 3.05 NEWBURY 1PT E-WAY @ 9-2 BET365 
NON RUNNER


0.50 E-WAY DOUBLE AT 7-2 & 9-2 BET365.


Updated at 10.50
Lots non runners everywhere today and Balthazaar's gift now non runner and we have have 15p rule four on Kite wood at least we on at good price after rule four around 3-1 mark.




  

Friday, August 13, 2010

Fridays best bets

Friday we have 6 cards though looks quite difficult day  with plenty rain forecast just about everywhere,just going concentrate on the one race at Newbury 3-Y-0 maiden at 4.55

10F MAIDEN FILLIES CLASS 5 NEWBURY 4.55
PIANO:Promising debut last time at Nottingham finishing 4th behind Jivry beaten 6 Lenghs ,ran very green in early stages and was soon well behind though was really staying on well the last 2 furlongs and was not given hard race, looks sure improve for that run, for in form John Gosden.


1PT E-WAY @ 4-1, PADDY POWER,LADBROKES 





Thursday, August 12, 2010

Another blank day

Plenty racing on Thursday with six cards though again nothing really appeals apart from one decent group three race at Salisbury the racing don't look that great with plenty of very tricky handicaps.There does look some good racing at Newbury on Saturday including group three Geoffrey Freer stakes & group two Hungerford Stakes.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Its a Blank Wednesday!!

Tuesday's only bet Noble Storm could only manage rather disappointing third ,behind Masta Plasta who won very easily by nearly 4 lenghs making all .On paper Masta Plasta did look to have big chance, though with no win for nearly 2 years it was very off putting.

Plenty racing on Wednesday with five cards and couple decent meetings at Salisbury & Sandown including fair listed race at Salisbury.It looks one them days though, with plenty tricky races and nothing really appeals as decent bet.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Tuesday's best bets

Good to start the week with SHANNERSBURG winning the seller at 9-4 for 2.25 PTS PROFIT

Tuesday's racing looks slightly better with decent evening card at Nottingham featuring two class 3  races.The 5F condition race at 7.50 is main interest.

5F CONDITION RACE CLASS 3 NOTTINGHAM 7.50
NOBLE STORM:Had some very decent form last season winning twice in good  handicaps at Goodwood & York ,and finishing close second in listed race at Newmarket last October behind Spin Cycle.Does need to bounce back after disappointing run at Nottingham in April ,though has decent strike rate for sprinter 5 from 16 and looks very well treated at weights in this condition race.


The main danger looks to be the D.Nicholls trained MASTA PLASTA who has shown some decent  form this season, best run being good second in condition race at Beverley back in May behind the useful Look Busy,though hasn't  won any race for nearly 2 years and has gone some 18 races without win.




NOBLE STORM 7.50 NOTTINGHAM 
1.25 PTS WIN @ 5-2 CORALS .THIRD


 updated at 10.10am






Monday, August 09, 2010

Mondays best bets

Four low grade cards on Monday , just the one race of interest the 1 Mile 4F selling stakes at Wolverhampton.

12F SELLING STAKES CLASS 6 WOLVERHAMPTON 4.15


SHANNERSBURG: Good winner of seller over 1 Mile 4F last December at Lingfield (Won by 4 Lenghs)  when trained by David Pipe ,lightly raced since ran good 2ND for Ian Williams 6 days ago over 2 miles at Catterick appeared not quite stay the 2 mile trip.Drop back to 1 MILE 4F will suit should go well in this weak seller. 


On paper SIR BOSS looks big danger,has 9lb in hand on official handicap ratings and did win handicaps at Chepstow & Ffos Las last July and takes big drop in class into selling company for first time ,however has shown very little on his last 6 starts including on Jumps last time at Perth beaten 25 Lenghs in 5 runner race.




SHANNERSBURG 4.15 WOLV 1PT WIN @ 9-4 BET365
updated at 10.20 am (WINNER !!)

Sunday, August 08, 2010

Summary of the bets

Very quiet week with just the two bets one winner and e/way placed with total profit of 6.20 pts.Quite happy to finish the week with profit ,the racing over the last 7 days has not been great.

THE RESULTS ON THE WEEK
2 BETS)1 WINNER)PROFIT 6.20 PTS)


OVERALL AFTER 27 WEEKS 
243 BETS)73 WINNERS)PROFIT 38.80)


Over the last seven days iv'e had plenty time to analyse all the results over the past six months up to July 31st.
Its always good idea to analyse all your bets over period of time to see what races you are doing well at and the races you are performing badly in.

My strong races seem to be claimers,sellers,condition races & maiden races with very decent profits in these races.It was quite shock to discover that I was doing so badly in listed races( 6 winners from 35 bets) this is shocking strike rate of just 17%.Handicap races are also poor with (11 winners from 50 bets) Just 22% strike rate.

Looking at the results over past 6 months , though in profit I think I can do lot better.I have now decided its time to specialize in certain type of races(CLAIMERS,GROUP RACES,SELLING STAKES,CONDITION RACES,MAIDEN RACES& NOVICE STAKES )and to avoid all handicaps listed races and all Jump racing . This will mean a lot less bets each month but hopefully far greater profits.




HANDICAPS)50 BETS )11 WINNERS)22%)LOSS 19.60)
CLAIMERS)29 BETS)15 WINNERS)52%)PROFIT 49.70)
GROUP RACES)53 BETS)12 WINNERS)23%)LOSS 2.20)
LISTED RACES)35 BETS)6 WINNERS)17%)LOSS 34.50)
CONDITION RACES)9 BETS)4 WINNERS)44%)PROFIT 13.00)
SELLING STAKES)17 BETS)8 WINNERS)47%)PROFIT 18.90)
MAIDEN RACES)24 BETS)8 WINNERS)33%)PROFIT 16.90)
NOV STAKES)2 BETS)1 WINNER)50%)PROFIT 1.80)
CHASE RACES)7 BETS)1 WINNER)14%)LOSS 10.00)
HURDLE RACES)7 BETS)1 WINNER)14%) LOSS 4.00)





No selections on Sunday

Three ordinary cards in UK with no real interest,though decent card in Ireland at the Curragh with the Group one Phoenix stakes and two decent Group two races,though no real good betting opportunities with both Fame and Glory & Strong suit likely winners at very short prices.